Perhaps it’s just me but that UKMO 144hr chart looks rather cold?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

The battle is lost; though may be better down the line.

We have a time to run on this one at the moment.

I bet the PARA will nail it this evening 

the lack off the word easterly in the met forecast does make you wonder whether the ECM is on for another massive fail. Hope its right.

yet...

GEM is positively scorchio by 192h DOH! 

looks like some Greenland high action kicking in 228h GFS 

Yes it is typical model variability but if a significant portion of that low to our west doesn't slide south over France at circa T120 - T144 then its' good-bye to any easterly influence later next week.  This morning the majority of models dragged enough energy southwards to set up the easterly influence (to varying degrees) but the 12z GEM, ICON and, to a lesser extent, the UKMO are less keen to do so.  Even the GFS Op has things further south than most would like but then looks likely to deliver a second chance later on in the run! To be honest, we have been see-sawing between the two outcomes for several days now but the outcome is key at least to our short-term cold potential.  Fascinating times.      

240 chart would be close to a big snow event if adjusted West by small amount - different slant on things still unusual pattern

huge snow events  240 - 384. Another decent run all in all. Come on Para pull your finger out.

Looks like in the end we get there.

Surley if the setup persists and we get a couple of bites at the cherry, then hopefully one of them will verify.

As ever time will tell.

I wouldnt class it as decent.  FI looks ok, but everything within touching distance has been rinsed down with warmer air.  Infact apart from the odd cool blast it will feel very similar to the past week.  Nothing sever until 2 weeks time at least.

a very boring, green and tame run (Excluding the outer reaches of FI)

JFF watching and analysing each model run at the moment as with so much potent energy contained within the US storm so many ''downstream'' possibilities exist. Probably won't see any definitive NWP solution for mid next week and longer range until Sunday - so quite a rollercoaster in the models coming up.

Be mindful that just two days ago METO Chief Forecaster was predicting only a 25% chance of deep cold / Easterly developing on our shores........ Given today's METO update the odds may have shortened a bit.

Has anyone compared ICON GLOBAL with ECM over a period of time? My understanding is they are now both based around the IFS and it occured to me the output from both could be quite similar. On the same theme the MetO discussion forecasts are often almost a carbon copy of Arpege, so I assume there are commonalities between those two models.

They've briefed to the government a 70% chance of severe cold in early Feb. It was reported in the ST last week.

Hopefuly just - as has been said - inter-run volatility, but your analysis can't be argued with.

Looks virtually unchanged to me. By 174 hours the GEFS mean is almost identical, perhaps half a degree colder than the 6Z for London.

Only difference is the operational was slightly above the mean instead of slightly below it, as on the previous run.

Can't say that I would regularly look at the ICON or Arpege model, except when there is the prospect of some short term interesting weather potential. I do remember a couple of years ago though when the Arpege model got the track of a storm low quite spot on compared to the 'big three', which left egg on the faces of our own met service here. 

it was always going to feel a let down after the 6z but its boring between 168 and 240h apart from that its an excellent run .