ECM 144 hours. Our usual foe the Azores High could actually work in our favour by linking with the arctic high.

Good trends this morning for a significant cold spell on the way

Beware the Siberian Bear is coming: This mornings 00z GFS creates the mother of all Scandi highs and some days in the freezer with a fresh NE fetch, and then at the start of Feb, gradually begins to sink ithe high south east, cutting off the Siberian feed. It seems to leave us in the fridge though, in some quiet, foggy, frosty twilight, probably with snow lying in the shade. Just like those lingering cold spells of old (pre 1990s), when snow would sometimes linger around for two weeks - with rather cold temps of 3-4 max by day and night frosts. Bring it on...

A good Easterly from ECM

Just want that cold to flood SWards 

Its always a roller coaster ride - but I guess that's why us thrill seekers love model watching...

I have to admit this latest ride was or is a real teaser, as the 00z two days ago had me fooled that it was all going Pete Tong! And I'm too old in the tooth to be fooled by much flip flop nonsense....LOL..

Not much margin for error as the ECM frames progressed to day 7. 

I'd be pretty sure that the main front on Tuesday will be rain followed by wintry showers behind.

Ideally for much of the UK to see snow from the subsequent easterly, we would need to see the link up between the Azores High and Arctic High a little further West, as it is there would be snow for the SE on the ECM chart. 

The hapless GEM has had a sudden conversion to the best solution this morning.

The models can and do change at this type of range, even with cross model agreement, but at this stage of our developing scenario ECM completes the suite of cold 0z runs!!

ECM @ 192

Excellent 

We had one yesterday. The snow is still on the ground. 

The ECM maintains its colder anticyclonic easterly theme at day 8 on this run with signs of one of the less cold interludes following, continuing the trend.

The easterly certainly doesn't look marginal ! But PPN would be a limited to the E/SE.

But yes in the reliable, Tuesday will be rain away from high ground.

We'll revisit this comment on Wednesday morning.

(Hint: if the Met Office say this, for the not-exactly-high-ground dominated SE, then I wouldn't be so brave/foolhardy as to rule out snow:

"Windy early morning Tuesday, with rain, perhaps some snow, clearing to sunshine. Cold." )

That's not an marginal from ECM , good enough for snow IMO 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_96_2.png

With reference to Tuesday, we’ve seen this scenario so many times before. Yes rain at first, but showers becoming more and more wintry through the day across NW England, North Midlands, North Wales and Western Scotland. Snow for the hills throughout and possibly to low levels by evening. Lots of hail and graupel also. 

Winds aren’t excessively strong, so the showers could last a while & on a westerly they’ll push well inland. 

It’ll certainly be rain at first, for most.

192 hours is fine on Ecm but 168 hours is more iffy. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_168_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_168_5.png

Still very good charts and some good snow opportunities. 

I remember last winter we had a similar set up, GFS had uppers of I think -7c and at 200m we ended up with a right mess of sleet/rain/graupel. 

We are definitely one step closer to a significant easterly this morning GEM is on board and is probably the snowiest run this morning. GFS and ECM very good. UKMO at 144 at bit meh not sure where it goes from there and Para playing its own game still. GEFS look iffy in the 27th - 29th period Control is stunning though.

Just flicked through the various output. Still some uncertainty to be fair with the GFS ENS very split mid to late next week. Met office winds also turning NW on Thursday next week on the computer output. 

ECM mean at +168 is great though.

ECM Means look good not as cold of course but look like they would be snowier.

ECM looks good but the precipitation charts show very little wintry precipitation for the south east quarter. No doubt the detail will change but as it stands it’s surprisingly disappointing.