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Maunder Minimum
18 January 2019 08:22:02

Looking at the ECM should it verify as it is I would expect wet snow above 300m on Tuesday/Wednesday with snow descending to lower levels from Wednesday morning onwards. I would imagine the north midlands northwards would get plenty of convective snow showers travelling a fair way inland. The SE would do well if any disturbances moves off France. Even the far SW might get some wintery showers from the formation of the Pembrokeshire droop before the winds turn to a drier ENE.

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 


From previous experience, I would anticipate snow all the way for the West Midlands. Further south will pan out as you indicate.


 


New world order coming.
Arbroath 1320
18 January 2019 08:23:01


Just flicked through the various output. Still some uncertainty to be fair with the GFS ENS very split mid to late next week. Met office winds also turning NW on Thursday next week on the computer output. 


ECM mean at +168 is great though.


Originally Posted by: Gary L 


Agreed. The favoured evolution next week into an NE/Easterly spell looks very finely balanced. A slight variation in the track of the low coming down from the NW could have a big impact as can be seen in the UKMO at 144. We could well end up with the Azores/Sandi ridge slap bang on top of us rather than a potent Easterly.


So overall, still encouraging output for cold weather fans this morning but nowhere near being nailed on yet.


GGTTH
Solar Cycles
18 January 2019 08:23:33
The cold theme is now set in stone but precipitation could be rather sparse for many going of this mornings output.
Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 08:27:38

Those worried about precipitation need to remember that its important to get the cold in first and worry about the details later.


This crops up every year, and while no place can ever be guaranteed snow, there are countless examples of surprise snowfall. 


High Res models will be the ones to watch from next week onwards. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Solar Cycles
18 January 2019 08:31:06


Those worried about precipitation need to remember that its important to get the cold in first and worry about the details later.


This crops up every year, and while no place can ever be guaranteed snow, there are countless examples of surprise snowfall. 


High Res models will be the ones to watch from next week onwards. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Its a slack flow which wont be conducive for widespread precipitation await from facoured spots. IMBY Easterlies are pretty bobbins for snow anyway. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

idj20
18 January 2019 08:36:54

Just has a skeg ( © Sevendust ) through the outputs and it is "good" to see how there is now a more defined agreement across the model board of an easterly set up with Kent being in the prime spot by this time next week. But given it is 7 days away it is subject to change so it might be too soon for me to have high expectations of experiencing any kind of actual wintry weather at this end.


Folkestone Harbour.Β 
kmoorman
18 January 2019 08:39:14

Some ups and downs, but at a higher level than before. 


 



Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Chunky Pea
18 January 2019 08:40:54


Its a slack flow which wont be conducive for widespread precipitation await from facoured spots. IMBY Easterlies are pretty bobbins for snow anyway. πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Didn't do too badly from the easterly last Feb/Mar, and I'm probably the most westerly member on here. But nothing still beats a true northerly, such as in 2000 and 2010. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Phil G
18 January 2019 08:46:40
Like the way the isobars tighten on next Friday's GFS forecast. Down here it will feel bitter near the coast in those strong ENE winds!
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1862.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1868.gif 

Phil G
18 January 2019 08:57:24
As mentioned by Ian, a quite potent storm was forecast for the end of next week which could have caused problems with a surge down the north sea, coupled with very high tides Wed/Thurs 23rd/24th.
Believe it is the same storm, but its the low pressure forecasted to move and develop to the south of us introducing winds from the East.
Nothing on the scale as earlier forecasts, but expect that wind coming up the Thames estuary will cause a bit of coastal topping on some Essex and north Kent coasts.
Low pressure causing a higher tide
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1322.gif 
Wind piling water into the Thames estuary
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1562.gif 
Same on Friday
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.gif 

Could be quite "eventful" Friday with the waves and convection building as colder air pushes in.
Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 09:06:26

Eyes down for the 06z. I will be looking for some upgrades from here on in.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
18 January 2019 09:08:35

ECM Op a cold outlier towards the end on the London graph


8097B643-A095-4893-A84C-F5999F6E3FCD.thumb.png.a7953ffa762ff2efa80de57e5951c905.png

Gavin D
18 January 2019 09:11:10

Heavy Weather 2013
18 January 2019 09:22:38

The storm in the USA on ICON looks slightly further west compared to 0z. Not sure what if any impact this will have.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Chunky Pea
18 January 2019 09:25:19




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


"#balance"



Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
sizzle
18 January 2019 09:30:31

A very long drawn out process this SSW just like last year. my eyes are on FEB. hopefully something like last year will develop it seems to me that Weather looks to be staying cold and wintry for the foreseeable future and could turn very cold by the end of next week.. unless model charts puts in a few surprises

Solar Cycles
18 January 2019 09:43:35


 


Didn't do too badly from the easterly last Feb/Mar, and I'm probably the most westerly member on here. But nothing still beats a true northerly, such as in 2000 and 2010. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

It was rubbish here though it did snow a little.

soperman
18 January 2019 09:46:47


The storm in the USA on ICON looks slightly further west compared to 0z. Not sure what if any impact this will have.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Looking Stateside.  Storm Harper is so far following forecast track and expected to exit Eastern States/Canada Sunday/Monday.


The exit into the Atlantic looks to be further North but v difficult to tell and plenty of room for the storm to change tack.


The plunge from the Arctic has commenced.

backtobasics
18 January 2019 10:03:59
A timely post by Gavin above, in the medium term there is still a possibility the temps will be cool rather than cold so we just get the worst of all kinds of winter weather. The approaching trough early next week not quite digging as far south on this run, am at work so can’t study close enough but first glance suggests that ?
Rob K
18 January 2019 10:16:48

Small changes but it does now seem odds on that the trough will sink south rather than heading NE as was looking like an option a couple of days ago. Variations from run to run until that track is pinned down could see us end up in anything from a slack northerly to a roaring easterly by late next week. One thing that doesn't really look to be on the table is mild weather. The 6Z GFS seems a little slacker than the 0Z, with everything a little further east.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
18 January 2019 10:21:50

Good morning all.


I just spilled some milk this morning under the microwave!


Lol, behold.


The UKMO is not buying into the idea of Cold NE winds at T144hrs, but cold regardless of it with Cyclonic flow Low Pressure at Thursday 24th next week.


Cold NW Winds offered by all and cold bitter cold NE winds still being outputted from GFS, it’s Para, GEM, and ECMWF plus the ICON is supporting to some extent. Cold NW winds Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon is on offer, chances are good.


NW Atlantic to SW then ESE Greenland via SE off Newfoundland PV Low with WAA SE E and CAA up its NW and West of it and N of it, from Monday to Wednesday it goes NE with Greenland and Iceland and Arctic High move SE to NE Atlantic etc West and NW UK, Very cold by Friday to Sunday and even to Monday the 28th January 2019.


Rain with hill snow on Tuesday to Thursday, chance of snow showers on Friday to Sunday is there, especially the GFS, ECMWF, with GEM following them.  The ICON and UKMO indicate some uncertainty in the location of blocking and reverse (NE winds).


I am looking forward next 4 days and hope that NW Atlantic Low is  going to be remain en route across SW East SE Greenland etc.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.Β 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
doctormog
18 January 2019 10:23:15
The 06z GFS is rather nice/cold so far.
Arcus
18 January 2019 10:26:40

The 06z GFS is rather nice/cold so far.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed. I was thinking a few frames ago that if I was being picky I'd want to see the High cut-off and a disruptive low come under the block...


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
ballamar
18 January 2019 10:27:05
Rob K
18 January 2019 10:28:38
Looks like it could be a belter - the low not sinking so far south actually props the high pressure up a bit more and could allow the next low to slide underneath.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

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