Only a couple of days ago the ECM went a bit funny by showing something similar to tonight's runs, only to revert back the next morning. A straw to be grabbed I guess. 

I didn't see the Global ICON12z but if some of the comments were accurate ECM12z is no real surprise to me.

Absolutely right Neil and looking at that ECM run I am not convinced that there would not be a bit of snow mixed in there for some. If there is a big shift in the ECM ensemble data then I think we will be none the wiser for the details beyond day 5 or 6. Before then though and generally overall things look on the same trend with some very cold outcomes and some much less so but still not mild (12z ECM op run).

A somewhat messy run that ends with the 'promise' of more cold weather.  The track and extent of the southward progression of the low early next week is key to how this all pans out, albeit nothing mild is immediately on the horizon!!

The hope would be that its an outlier and that the 0z models show some consistency at 144ish, though I now have a feeling it will be towards Sunday's 12z before we can know what will transpire, looking highly uncertain.  More runs needed.

I think we need to see the ECM ensemble before we can tell how worried we should be about this.

We were due a wobble and we've got a big one . No point over analysing it, its Shiite hopefully its very wrong . The output is still all over the place but mainly cold . Output will probably look very different again tomorrow and so on the next day, but hopefully we get to a significant cold spell.

Chances of ICON being correct at the moment are very low I would suggest but not impossible 

I think phrases such as "too good to be true" and "pissing on bonfire" could be applied this evening, especially if the 18z GFS start showing the same as the current 12z ECM. Perhaps its just as well UKMO only go as far as 144 hrs.

Why do we do this to ourselves? Especially since I haven't seen a decent snowfall/cover since March 2013. I sometime wish I took on a less stressful pastime such as drawing and trainspotting . . . oh, wait . . .

The interesting thing about the ECM run, if interesting is the right word , is that it's essentially just showing what it was before it first toyed with the easterly idea (which it's already dropped once and brought back).

We get a chilly NW flow with some snow for some, then a brief toy with an easterly and then back to a NW'ly flow with what looks like some more cold and unsettled weather about to drop down over the UK with HP ridging in the Atlantic.

It's still a chilly to cold outlook but the Op mostly says no to an easterly, other than a weak glancing affair.

It's not the eye candy it has had and that the GFS Op was showing but it's not that out of sync with what we were looking at a few days back.

Might be an aberration which will disappear over the next day or might just be a sign that this particular attempt at a sustained cold spell will fail and we need to wait for the next one. Given the overall signals are still for colder weather to be more likely/frequent it won't be a long wait even if ECM and some of the GFS ens members have got things right

Exactly right , if it sits right at the top end then what's the worry 

Yeh it just seems to be in my experience that unless there is cross model agreement cold doesn't happen.

What we may see now is the GFS becoming like the ECM and the ECM switching back.

But ultimately unless all the models agree I'd go with whatever model isn't cold.

There is a Spoiler Central N Atlantic Low that is shown to intensify by Thursday to Saturday next week and the Weekend, cutting off the chance of cold NE winds for Friday, but upto Thursday 24th January, is Cold with NW winds and interesting enough.

Today 12z, it looks as if ECMWF and the ICON have again put a downer on any chances of prolonged cold and wintry weather, and replace it with a Atlantic Breakdown by about Saturday or Sunday, then by Monday 28th, Cold air in NW Atlantic and Deep Low that could spread East across the UK, if ECMWF 12z is correct, less cold then chance of Cold westerly or WNW winds maybe.

.

Regardless of where it sits in the ensembles the post midweek easterly is still inconclusive.

Its frustrating but as we all know we need to get to 96 hours with cross model agreement before can be sure of a particular evolution, especially with an easterly that goes against the natural fluids of the atmosphere.

Lets wait for the ensembles, but echoes of Dec 2012 where one run hints at it going wrong then all of a sudden it does. The reliance on the Arctic High is always high risk.

Wise words. Despite the amplifying pattern, there appears to be still too much west>east momentum in the signals. However, there’s also still the signal for deep cold close by both to the NW and the NE and the jet appears still to want to dive SE to the west of or over us. Pressure looks now to be generally low over Europe - which ever model variation you look at in the mid term - opening the doors to cold lows riding a retreating Azores high, diving through that gap.  At some point we can hope that the pause in the flow - Feb 1st? - happens when we have low to the south and height to the north. To me, the story hasn’t changed, just the headlines. Thoughts?

Jeff

Come on Q I cant see the screen for blood you know we always get wobbles in cold spells.

Anyway mean looks like  rince and repeat to me at 10 days fwiw, 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0

Mild at the end.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=na&lg=undefined&lglocation=london&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

JMA 12z is night and day compared to yesterday's and thankfully for the better!!

Exactly