But it's not relevant to this because here, the changes at around day 4 change the pattern from one solution to another quite starkly. 

The 'beast' saw a flip in the models in response to the QTR at around day 8 and the arrival of the Beast was counted down on all subsequent runs - Retron did it on here.

 

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FI. 😜

 

indeed couldn’t have been more wrong!! Haha

Looked at the GFS first and clicking on each time frame thought oh no when it started to look different. But in the "more reliable" ended up as another solution of the cold with a deeper colder pool so thought that was still okay. Then of course came ECM.
All I would say is that over the last week or so ECM seemed pretty consistent while others chopped and changed. While consistent, no one model is ever correct all the time. Not because of cold bias but from the past rock solid models have often changed. That's the beauty, as often said you need all models to be singing the same hymn sheet. Just one different smacks caution.
Really 50:50 cold or mild to me which way this goes and all may be wrong still! Sometimes the outcome is found somewhere in the middle of models. Could be that someone on the edge between two air masses will get seriously pasted.

Just trying to help keep the old spirits up. 

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I take all that on board. However, I would advise you to have a look at the GFS, ECM and UKMO 00z op runs at the T+144 stage and see what they show. Because if you do, you will see that it's very much a case of GFS and UMKO against ECM. The first two raise pressure to the NE of the UK while the third model does not. I have for a long time gone by the principle that if there is any disagreement at all between the big three at T+144, that is a sure sign of considerable uncertainty and no-one can really be at all sure as to what happened going forward.

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I think most of us, by bitter experience, work on the principle of if 1 out of the big 3 show it going wrong, then that's what comes to pass.

And we are reminded frequently by a certain poster prone to hyperbole that the ECM is king and the GFS should not even be looked at...

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Surely looking at and taking all valid data into account will always be more valid than arbitrarily discounting some? The same would go for one set of runs, more than one set is always more informative.

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Meanwhile, across the pond they could be heading into the Freezer

 

 

Still not convinced ECM has this right, and many of its members still bring in an easterly, the uncertainty at 120 to 144 is striking,

Anyway, as we get closer to the reliable I would highly recommend the FAX output 🙂

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In the background there are models running.
ICON about to complete its short 06Z run, and a better profile with respect the ‘division’ between the exiting US storm Harper and our sinking Icelandic trough.
We could see a more robust Easterly on this run than previous ones.

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Lol. Couldn't agree more.  I defy anyone to go and find any chart from 7 days ago that reflects exactly what is happening today.  In fact you would be hard pressed to find one that reflected itself exactly from three days ago.  At these ranges, they show possible outcomes, they are not statements of fact.  Calm down, the trend is moving in the right direction for those that favour cold, even extreme cold lasting for some time is possible.  If you need some reassurance, take a broader look at some other sources of information, the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) is a good start to help with plenty of links to their research leading into a mass of information related to weather phenomenon throughout the world and its interrelation with us. 

 

DE Bilt ECM 0z ensembles. Not the freezer scenarios of yesterday.

Warming trend is apparent and considerable low confidence after 25th.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

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Agree.

If some perspective is needed, which it seems to be, I would recommend just stepping back and appreciating what it is the models are trying to do: the atmosphere is a huge, immensely complex fluid in constant motion and subject to a myriad of factors.  In times like these, with the added uncertainty of the SSW, I think we expect far too much in terms of accuracy from just looking at one operational run or one set of runs.

An extended cold spell still remains odds-on at the moment but there’s never been any consistent run-to-run and cross-model support for bitterly cold weather.

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Indeed. Im watching it roll out. Here is a more favourable position at the edge of the known world (120)

 

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A case of Sod’s law....

With a level head I would not be surprised to see this morning ECM come to pass, because it would be following the theme that this winter has had from the beginning in the respect that high pressure has Played a large influence on our weather so far. As we know all the cold has been to the east and southeast of us all winter.

Saying that I do expect February to be much colder but that’s just a hunch. 

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Wow that's a massive improvement from the ICON.  See  i told you it was the King! 

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The unfancied Brazilian model has updated and says it will be a westerly rather than an easterly.

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NAVGEM 120 fancied at easterly at 120 hours but uppers are too warm to deliver wintry PPT at that stage.

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As a tool for someone trying to discern the likelihood of how the short-medium weather will pan out, this thread has become useless.

One has to wade through a swamp of agenda-driven excrement and the produce of the perennial bedwetters, to find the odd nugget of sense and good analysis. 

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At a glance, that 06z ICON run for what it’s worth is somewhere between the ECM and GFS 00z op runs at day 5.

The 06z GFS op run is also starting to come out but will it remain consistent with the previous three op runs and if it does will that provide any clarity?!

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I'm sure you are referring to me on this bit 

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It could throw in one of the milder solutions from the GEFS pack, but I think the real sucker punch will come at around half time today when the UKMO T120 emerges..

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Post of the year award? 😂😎

Personally (sorry off topic), I’ve always rated JMA 😊

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Well the ECM did not come on board.

 

Once again 'always trust the mild outlier' holds true. 

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