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Im with you , I don't get this ? We don't just get cold from the East
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Purely imby and selfish but we don't here in Kent. Maxed here today at 6.9c in our newly established ' cold pattern'
I agree too. This is exactly what most of the model output has been showing for ages in terms of cold ensemble temperatures. The only bumps in the road I have seen have been occasional mad easterly runs.
I'm not having any digs at anyone by the way. I'm just venting. I'm incredibly pissed off as you can gather. .
Originally Posted by: Gusty
And knowing your location , I totally understand why mate , you carry on
A dreadful UKMO at T96, and although no change in the METO outlook today - there will be a big one tomorrow.
Honest answer ? The diminishing chance of easterly.
A colder outlook with less cold interludes is not the reason we are all coming here and investing a lot of our time in.
It is for sone of us though. I genuinely appreciate how good a cold easterly is for some locations and how frustrating it can be to have one dangled under your nose to (perhaps) be taken away. I have had to bite my tongue because an easterly is absolutely dire for here 99 times out of 100. The “Beast” was a prime example.
I can only go with what the charts show and not what I like because im the end it makes no difference to what is going to turn up. I will continue to analyse the trends and, even though I rather it was not the case, I believe some form of easterly is likely in th next 3 weeks even if it doesn’t not turn up in the coming days. Those repeated glimpses are normally an encouraging sign.
I feel your pain Steve even if I don’t share your desire for an easterly, and as I say I think you will get one in due course (but that is more a hunch than direct analysis)
Maybe the mighty ICON was right after all!
UKMO not good for coldies at 120
Game, set and match Atlantic -
https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2019011912/UW144-21.GIF
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Marcus and Doc...peace and love and all that.
You can see why, even in the less mild interludes, the Met Office are going for a cold outlook. Based in the GEFS 06z this is probably the mildest part of the outlook with colder conditions before and following.
No words. Utterly infuriating. For us in the SE we need an easterly. Nothing else cuts the mustard. This one cuts deep it’s feels like the build up has taken forever.
Those mild stragglers have appeared to win the day 😡
I concur it’s probably curtains for this particular Easterly chance but another could evolve shortly afterwards.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Agreed. I'm not sure many of us have the energy for the next carrot dangler though.
It's incredibly annoying that the models can just flip like this. Seemingly one average low pressure coming out of Canada can scupper a cold spell. Looks like day 10 again at the earliest for something of interest
Even this optimist can see nothing of note on the horizon leaving us going into the final month of *cough* winter. One thing of note is how useless long range modelling really is, you may as well use seaweed in determining the weather post ten days.
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
Yes in spite of everything we have managed to see no HLB that can impact the UK. Steve Murr has thrown the towel in on t'other side.
138 GFS. Game over for the easterly. This has made a complete mockery of the 500Hpa anomoly charts showing strong blocking over Icleand and Greenland in the final week of January.
Winter is over !
See you all in March.
At least my CET prediction of 4.6 won't look too silly now. My heart was correct all along.
Happy hunting guys.
I'm out of here.
Good agreement by day 6 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_144_1.png
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
ICON although not perfect has beaten the living **** out of ALL the other models this time around. Very impressive
And to add insult to injury, it still manages to fit in a gale force southerly wind - my most loathed weather type - on Monday night (again) and it'll be accompanied with a spell of heavy rain as the trough feature (remnants of Harper?) drops south east wards over the UK. That said, that has been showing up in the past few runs which has no problems with being carried forward into the reliable time frame and there is a chance of a short spell of frontal clearance wet snow but that is of little interest to me.
