The only bump in the road I can see in the ECM ensemble being discussed here is the one single day that the mean edges above 5C for London (it hits 6C for that one day in a week's time - hardly a very short distance away or even nailed on). Even on that day there are a few members giving ice days.

To me that ensemble looks like we've entered a cold spell with no end in sight, and one that will be getting colder still the further we get into winter.

Comparing GFS 06hrs with current position (centre far W Tennessee), the system looks like tracking west of the modelled path which may have implications once it enters the ocean in two days.

AO & NAO (MOST OF) going into negative territory now! - maybe a couple +positive runs but they are outliers.

Do you think that chart was based on our 00z run and not 06z run?

yes this was backed up by the BBC forecast for next week at lunchtime, though they stressed it would just be cold rather than talking up the possible snow fest like they did yesterday. 

We have to be realistic, the cold will find any way it can to avoid these islands at winter time- we should know this from bitter experience 

yes I’ve been looking at this too and any possible amplification down stream for us. I’m undecided as to what this means for us given other back ground signals at present, should be a bit clearer by tomorrow morning 

Pivotal runs this evening.

We start the ball rolling with the Icon at 114 hours so far.

Early indications suggest a toppling mid atlantic ridge with the jet over-riding. The north sea low pressure is not digging southwards leaving southern England under a slack westerly at this stage.

Icon 144 hours..jeezus. 

Surely we're not going to miss out again on another mid-winter easterly 

ICON different to the 0z 

We have to give credit to the ICON for how it is performed over the last few days, that's really poor not just at T144 but going forward.

Its a better run than the 0z 

I don't know but if this is going to come off we need ALL output to show the easterly. Stop trying to polish a turd. Its awful.

Normally this would be accepted - why is it now awful

well if it does, and as you say it most probably will, then it’s probably a given that the easterly is off the cards. Terrible bad luck again given other background signals

What’s awful? The diminishing chance of an easterly or the cold outlook? 

That aside the ICON which has never really gone for an easterly still doesn’t. I would not be surprised if serveral other models if not all them drop the easterly idea too but time will tell. The cold outlook with less cold interludes is however likely to remain unless there is a chance to the pattern of the last couple of weeks.

If it doesn’t there’s not exactly much we can do about it.

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1086602981150212096?s=20

This guy has the qualifications to know what he talking about. ie: that the 1-2 week period is unforecastable. At the moment

Jeff

Im with you , I don't get this ? We don't just get cold from the East 

For the SE contingent, only a mid-winter easterly presents a mouth-drooling prospect. The slow death (in forecasting terms) of this latest one is a bitter pill for those of us in Kent. Sure, NWlies are great for others but not here.

So let us wallow in our trough of despond, please

Honest answer ? The diminishing chance of easterly.

A colder outlook with less cold interludes is not the reason we are all coming here and investing a lot of our time in. 

Valid 

As you were 

Steve's touch of IMBYism can be misleading though