I take GWs notes as guidance that's all. Just information in order to help you pick a figure. Let's face it beyond 1-2 weeks out you're pretty much on your own anyway. A lot of work must go into producing all that and I'm sure it is appreciated so it will be a shame to see it go.

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Some recovery expected after next weekend, with 3 of the 4 CET stations expecting average daily temps around 17 and even Squires Gate expecting around 16. Would need to be maintained beyond there to offset the cooler stuff in the week ahead by very much. Love to hear any predictions based on the current outputs for where the CET might stand around,say, two weeks from now. Fools errand to think it would be accurate at that range I know, but someone might be willing to stick out their neck to within half a degree...a degree? If it's about 14 now, I think by then we'll still only have made it to about 14.3. 

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I always take into account the averages of previous years and have to admit I’d be totally lost without that information.  I also like the projected CET charts that GW provides throughout the month and are never far off the mark.

You’re right though, it must take a lot of time and effort to produce all the information GW provides and whether people use it or not, I’m sure it is very much appreciated by all.  It is after all, just a forecast according to the MO and depends on that being correct at the time.  But, maybe omitting it is a way of reducing the enormous workload that must go into this thread.  

As others have said, you’re good at this!  

 

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Met Office Hadley        13.8c.       Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     13.89c       Anomaly      -0.26c

Netweather                  14.47c       Anomaly      0.38c

Mean of My 10 Watched Stations    14.08c.   Difference   -1.25c. 

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Good, or just got lucky? I have actually made CET predictions since August last year and none of those were particularly good. It was quite fortuitous that I hit form in January as joint winner.

That said it's looking good for me at the moment for June. I went for one of the lowest predictions at 14.4C and we are well below that now. With a lot more cool weather on the way even much warmer weather in the last week (which needs to happen because I am on holiday then) probably won't bring the average up too much.

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Re Rule Changes:

 

A great move GW.  This will make things much more interesting and restore "the edge", which any truly great competition requires. 

Thanks from me.

WI

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I seem to remember coming top of the pile one January and I think that was as joint leader.  In my case that was sheer luck and it didn’t last long!  Now I’d be happy to be in the top half!  

Long may yours last!  

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Met Office Hadley          13.7c.      Anomaly     0.2c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       13.81c     Anomaly     -0.34c

Netweather                    14.31c     Anomaly    0.2c.

My 10 stations                13.93c.    Difference  -1.4c. 

  

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ECM and GFS have trended apart for Mon-Thu next week; ECM really turning up the thermostat while GFS keeps things fresh.

Loose CET estimates to 20th are 13.7*C using raw ECM but just 13.0*C using raw GFS.

Following that up with the seasonably warm GFS 00z days 11-16 gives an estimate to 26th of 14.4*C when appended to the ECM and 13.9*C when it's all GFS. Not at the quality of GW's estimates, mind!

 

Based on the tropical cycle, though, I can see reasons to expect higher temps in the 11-16 day range - but without as much stability to the high pressure, sadly (unless you enjoy storms even when you don't need the rain; could be some destabilising heat plume situations).

Mid-14s to mid-15s seems the most probable range for the final CET unless the tropical cycle stops short, which has been seen to happen on a couple of occasions in the past few years!

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Met Office Hadley          13.4c.       Anomaly     -0.1c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       13.53c       Anomaly      -0.1c

Netweather                    14.0c         Anomaly      -0.11c

My 10 Stations              13.92c.     Anomaly       -1.41c.  

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Yet more evidence here, of the fact that we're not exactly having much of a "summer" at the moment.

For me, one of the components which make up a decent summer is that it should be warmer than average overall, just as it was at this time last year when the temperature was getting up to above 30°C even in large parts of Scotland.

This means that it starts going colder than average as it has now just done, that then tells us that we're not having much of a summer.

Of course, the very time when we actually want it to be colder than average is during the winter (at least, from the perspective of those cold weather lovers who like to see a lot of snow during the winter), yet that is just something which never seems to happen these days at that particular time of the year.

 

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A note of encouragement: first 10 days of June 1975, average CET: 13.67

First ten days of 1995, 12.40 (and as far as 15th only 12.12!)

First 10 days of June 1990 12.34 (and only 12.21 to 15th).

Best of all, first 10 days of 1989 only 10.35.

Now, those of you who know these Junes and their following summers will understand all too well how not only summer can turn around, but June itself too. June 1975 is the odd one out here, as it had already switched paradigm by 10th. But 1989 and 1990 in particular are worthy of note- they kept getting colder to mid month. 

Apart from 1990 these Junes ended comfortably above 14. Of greater interest were the summers generally, with August starting hot.

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Agree with your post there Johncs.Down here it has been ridiculously cold for June,at the moment it is just 10c ,we seem to have gone from spring to autumn. What a difference a year makes!! The omens don1t look good and this `summer` could very well be a genuinely cold one something similar to 2011.

Sounds good to me Bertie. We needed this rain here as the garden really was parched, so although I’m not particularly enjoying it, I’m pleased we have it.  It isn’t quite summer yet according to the calendar.  Anyway, I think we’re due a good August! 

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Thank you for that heart warming reassurance. I needed that.

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  Me too!  

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I am not actually going to reduce the information that I provide, it is merely the timing of when it will get posted. It does mean potentially a bit more work for you guys in thinking about your predictions. But I figure that if we are going to have a competition then there is no need for me to give you the benefit (or indeed misinformation if you think my analysis is rubbish!) of my thought process in advance of making the predictions. What I will do is post my analysis after all the predictions are in.

I will still provide the following when I initially open the thread:

• Historic graph of the CET for the month


• Historic CET averages for the month


• Recent CET trends for the month


• Met Office contingency planners forecast


• Current model ensemble charts


• Any other relevant publicly available information

What I won't post until after the predictions are in is my forward looking CET tracker and my analogues analysis.

So the signs are still there (from the ECM at least) for a significant warm up for the second half of the month. I still think there is a good chance that we will make it to 15C (my prediction) by the end of the month.

Currently the CET stands at a miserable 12.84C. A slight fall in the next couple of days to around 12.75C. Then it just sticks at this figure until next week when it potentially starts rising strongly. 

Latest estimate is 14.51C by the 25th. There is a lot of uncertainty in the models at the moment. So I tend to agree with the recent post from James (Stormchaser) that the final position by the end off the month could anything from 14.5C to 15.5C. It could even go lower than 14.5C if we get a reload of cool winds due to northern blocking.

I hope that this actually comes off and if it does, this will mean that my own prediction for this month will suddenly be looking not so bad after all.

 

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That's fair enough. I thought you were getting rid of everything.

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Met Office Hadley          13.0c.       Anomaly    -0.5c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                       13.24c      Anomaly    -0.90c

Netweather                    13.75c      Anomaly    -0.36c

My 10 Stations              13.6c.   Difference    -1.70c. 

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That all sounds very sensible to me. It's great to have all of that information and then decide whether to go with it or to go on your own hunch. 

Cheers :-)

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Met Office Hadley          12.9c.       Anomaly        -0.7c.  Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                        13.11c      Anomaly         -1.64c

Netweather                     13.59c      Anomaly         -0.62c.

Mean Of My 10              13.55c     Difference     -1.78c.

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Met Office Hadley         12.8c.   Anomaly    -0.8c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                      13.02c  Anomaly    -1.13c

Netweather                   13.46c  Anomaly    -0.64c

Mean Of My 10            13.35c.    Difference   -1.98c.      

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This must surely have 'bottomed out' now. Let's just see how far it recovers!

 

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