Sunday 14 July - Tuesday 23 July

Sunday should be largely dry with sunny spells although it will feel cool along North Sea coasts. Temperatures will be near normal for most, but it will be warm in sunnier parts of the south and west. Monday should be a dry day for most, with bright or sunny spells, but a few showers may develop. Through the following week Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK, more especially across the north and west. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain predominantly settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of settled weather.

Wednesday 24 July - Wednesday 7 August

The last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at times as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain, especially at first. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Washington DC getting flooded:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-48911919/dangerous-flash-floods-hit-washington-dc-area

I wouldn't fancy being in the Metro with water cascading through the roof!

Ooops.

Simon King's forecasts tend to be a bit hit and miss on Five Live but this one was to put it mildly erroneous.

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   Simon King‏Verified account @SimonOKing 12h12 hours ago
   
   
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   Thick, dark clouds hanging around all day today with a chance of a bit of light rain at times . Should be plenty of dry weather though at Old Trafford for #INDvNZ #CWC19 #bbccricket | @bbctms | @BBCSport

   
   
   
   
   

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed bag for much of July. Fine by early August

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 July – Sunday 14 July

An unsettled start, but turning fine later

Wednesday will be rather humid and warm across much of England and Wales. The best of the sunshine looks to be in the south, while there will be more cloud with outbreaks of rain and some showers in central and northern Britain. More widespread showers will push into western and northern areas during the evening and overnight, with some rumbles of thunder becoming increasingly likely too. More widespread thunderstorms will develop across north-east England and Scotland on Thursday, which will be slow-moving and bring heavy rainfall. There will be sunny spells and a few showers elsewhere. On Friday, thunderstorms and heavy showers are likely to develop across eastern Britain, although these won't be as heavy as on Thursday.

Much of the rest of the country will be dry with some sunny spells, although a keen north-westerly breeze may take the edge off temperatures along some northern and western coasts. By this weekend, an area of high pressure will slowly drift east across the country. Eastern England may be cloudier on Saturday with a few showers or spots of rain, although it will remain generally dry with sunny spells elsewhere, and warmest in the south-west. Sunday should be a fine and warm summer's day for all, as it will be essentially dry with light winds and some decent sunny spells. Once again, it will be warmest across southern and central England and Wales.

Monday 15 July – Sunday 21 July

A fine and warm start, but showers and rain later

During the first half of next week, an area of high pressure will continue to dominate the British weather, with a good deal of warm, dry and calm conditions for all. Many areas should have good periods of sunshine, while it will become increasingly warm too, with the warmth extending east across the country towards midweek. During the latter half of next week, the high should move to the east of the UK, opening the door for Atlantic lows to push a few fronts east across the country. Areas of rain are likely, these most widespread in the west, while a few showers or thunderstorms could develop during the afternoons. Although temperatures will fall back closer to normal, it will still feel pleasant in any sunny spells as winds are likely to remain rather light.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 4 August

A return to summer-like weather by August

The last third of July is likely to see rather changeable weather, with areas of high and low pressure competing with one another to influence our weather. However, it does look to remain rather unsettled for a few days around the 22nd, with rain or showers likely, and perhaps some rather breezy weather too, particularly over Scotland. It seems that southern and south-eastern England will have the lion's share of any drier, settled weather, although a return to drier and warmer conditions for all look likely during the final seven days of the month. This should see a return to widespread summer-like weather, while it could become very warm at times in the south.

High pressure looks to linger over the UK as we close out July and head into August, and there is now better agreement on this pattern. With the main low pressure track generally to the north of the UK, much of the country should see a good deal of fine, settled weather once again, although there is a chance of a few fronts bringing stronger winds and bands of rain to northern Scotland at times. South-western areas will be most favoured for the driest and warmest weather.

Further ahead

Will signs of a settled start to August and fine weather for the summer holidays continue?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

What is quoted here for that middle week (which is next week) seems to be in the more unsettled camp as far as the model output is concerned but as we know, there is actually a discrepancy between the models just now between an unsettled solution for next week and more unsettled one.

The local forecasts on the BBC Weather site are going for the weather to be more unsettled here in Edinburgh from next Tuesday onwards, but keeps it completely settled down in London throughout that period. That would actually therefore suggest more of a north-south split across the UK with the north becoming more unsettled, but with the south remaining settled and that is something which I have gone more into with my latest post on the MO thread.

Monday 15 July - Wednesday 24 July

Monday should be a dry day across most of the UK, with bright or sunny spells, although there will perhaps just be the odd shower in a few places. Through the rest of the week, Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK, more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms on Tuesday. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain dry and settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of sunny and dry weather.

Thursday 25 July - Thursday 8 August 

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the last week of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Tuesday 16 July - Thursday 25 July

It will turn cloudier in the west on Tuesday, with a risk of showers and thunderstorms developing here. Elsewhere it will still be largely sunny, however through the rest of the week, Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and possibly windier spells across the UK. This unsettled weather will be more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms. The timings of these systems is currently uncertain and they are still likely to be interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Southern and southeastern areas are most likely to remain dry and settled. Temperatures are likely to be slightly warmer than average overall, especially during spells of sunny and dry weather.

Friday 26 July - Friday 9 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the end of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first, as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain slightly above average, with a chance of hot conditions in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Meto suggesting hot conditions possible in the south late July early August. the signs are there in the output. 

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Forecast skill remains low


• Mixed through late July


• Drier and warmer early August?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/12/john-hammond-month-ahead-all-set-summer-holidays/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Wednesday 17 July - Friday 26 July

Overnight mist and low cloud will disperse on Wednesday morning followed by sunny spells and showers for many, with the risk of thunder. Later on Wednesday into Thursday there is the chance of more persistent rain arriving from the west, and Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring some wetter and windier spells across the UK for the rest of the week. This unsettled weather will be more especially across the north and west, with a possibility of thunderstorms. There will also be some drier, brighter periods, with southern and southeastern areas probably maintaining the drier conditions. Another generally drier, more settled interlude is possible later in the month. Temperatures are likely to be slightly above average overall, with the possibility of a brief very warm spell in the southeast.

Saturday 27 July - Saturday 10 August 

The forecast is very uncertain at this early stage, but the end of July is likely to see some more changeable weather conditions at first, as Atlantic weather systems push across the UK. There will still be some drier and brighter interludes, especially across the south and southeast, but even here there is likely to be some rain. Through the first week of August the wettest and windiest conditions may become increasingly confined to the northwest, with southeastern parts seeing more in the way of settled weather, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast. Overall, temperatures are most likely to remain above the seasonal average, with a chance of hot conditions in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable outlook with rain at times but warm

_________________________________

Saturday 13 July – Sunday 21 July

Mostly fine at first, then unsettled and cooler

This weekend will gradually become drier and settled thanks to an area of high pressure approaching from the west. However, on Saturday a band of cloud and showery rain will affect the central spine of Great Britain. The best of the dry weather and sunny spells is likely to be over western and south-western parts of the UK. On Sunday, much of the UK will be dry with some bright or sunny intervals but isolated showers are possible over hills and coasts in the north and west. Quite warm for most this weekend but staying cooler and cloudier near to some North Sea coasts.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry and warm for many with the area of high pressure still influencing the weather. However, showery rain is expected to spread from the Atlantic over parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland by Tuesday. The middle to latter part of next week is then likely to see a significant change in the weather pattern for most of the UK. Wetter, breezier and somewhat cooler weather appears likely to spread from the west as rain-bearing low pressure areas are pushed towards the country by the jet stream. All areas should see some rainfall - there are just slight chances that rain stays further away to the north.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and breezy at first, then drier and warmer

The last full week of July is likely to continue the changeable theme to our weather. Initially, it is expected to be showery and rather cool for many because of low pressure areas lingering nearby. As the week progresses, low pressure should lift away northwards, allowing increasingly lengthy drier and warmer periods of weather to develop across the country. Most places should see some warm sunshine returning with England and Wales potentially becoming very warm.

However, there is a significant risk that the showery and breezy conditions persist for longer than expected, particularly in the north. This uncertainty in the forecast is partly because we may see the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry reaching close to our shores and weather prediction models often struggle to resolve these features more than a week in advance.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Wettest in the north. Warm and drier in the south

High pressure should bring some decent periods of dry and warm weather for the end of July. However, indications are for northern and western parts of the UK will see a return to wetter and breezier weather at times through early August as fronts re-emerge from the Atlantic. Central, southern and eastern areas of England are expected to see the best of the dry and warm weather with fewer outbreaks of rain reaching those areas.

The southern half of the UK is expected to have temperatures a little above the seasonal average through early August. Further north, it is likely to be less warm with temperatures near to the seasonal average. However, there appear to be chances that drier, settled conditions could remain more widespread across the UK.

Further ahead

Will the changeable weather conditions persist for the country? We will also take a closer look what impacts Tropical Storm Barry, currently affecting the southern USA, might have for the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 18 July - Saturday 27 July

A band of showery rain will move east across the UK on Thursday, probably clearing into the North Sea through the afternoon. Brighter and fresher conditions with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers following, mainly in the north and west. By the weekend into the following week, conditions will probably stay changeable and breezy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain but also brighter and drier spells. It may tend to become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.

Sunday 28 July - Sunday 11 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this stage, with mixed signals for higher or lower pressure by the end of July. However, there are signs of a possible more settled and drier interlude for many. Into August, there are very weak signs of some rain, possibly thundery outbreaks, developing across parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above the average overall, especially in the south and east, where possibly rather warm and humid at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 19 July - Sunday 28 July

Probably turning more widely unsettled on Friday, with rain and stronger winds moving northeast across the UK. The heaviest rain will most likely be across southern and western parts, although there is some uncertainty in the forecast at this stage. Into the weekend and the following week, conditions will probably stay changeable and breezy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain but also some brighter and drier spells. It may become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.

Monday 29 July - Monday 12 August

The forecast is very uncertain at this stage, with mixed signals for higher or lower pressure by the end of July. However, there are signs of a possible more settled and drier interlude for many. Into August, there are very weak signs of some rain, possibly thundery outbreaks, developing across parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above the average overall, especially in the south and east, where possibly rather warm and humid at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sunday 21 July - Tuesday 30 July

Sunday will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers across northern Britain, with largely dry conditions to close out the weekend in the south. Into the start of next week, low pressure is most likely to be close to northwest Britain, bringing stronger winds and occasionally heavy rain. Further southeast, it should be mostly dry with the potential to tap into very warm air drifting north out of Europe. Towards midweek, the wetter and somewhat cooler weather in the northwest looks to push further southeast, displacing the warmth and sunshine here. By the end of the month, a more widely changeable pattern looks most likely, with the wettest weather most likely further to the northwest, and sunshine more prevalent in the southeast.

Wednesday 1 August - Wednesday 14 August 

As we move into August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to pan out above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Monday 22 Jul - Wednesday 31 Jul

This period will likely see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, the southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could become hot and rather humid at times, especially early to mid next week. The south and southeast will not be without rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest. The weather signals become more mixed as we head towards the end of July, but the northwest to southeast split in the weather will most probably continue through this period.

Thursday 1 Aug - Thursday 15 Aug

As we move early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

The unsettled weather pattern lingers into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 July – Sunday 21 July

Turning unsettled with a wet end to the week

A wetter and more unsettled end to the week is expected across the UK, although the wettest weather is expected for Scotland and Northern Ireland. On Wednesday, rain will spread in from the west from the morning, reaching western Britain by midday and spreading into central Britain into the afternoon. Rain may be heavy in places, and the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out later. It will stay wet overnight as rain continues to spread across the country, but Scotland and Northern Ireland will be drier.

On Thursday, as rain clears to the east for England, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected in the north of the UK, with a few afternoon showers likely further south. A stronger frontal system arriving Friday morning from the south west will bring widespread rain with some embedded heavy showers and thunderstorms. Local downpours are likely with some of the thunderstorms, which are expected to move through Friday afternoon and evening, lingering into Saturday morning. As the rain gradually clears to the east on Saturday, most places will turn dry and fine with a fresh westerly breeze. However, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon in the south east. Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure will move overhead from the west, keeping things mostly fine and dry save for a few isolated showers in the west. These are expected to become more widespread later in the evening and overnight. Temperatures are expected to remain near average for most places, although the best of the warmth will be on Wednesday in the south.

Monday 22 July – Sunday 28 July

Wet and windy in the north; warmer in the south

The last full week of July will continue with the more unsettled trend, but there is expected to be a north-south split in the weather, with the northern half of the country tending to be wetter and windier. Meanwhile the southern half will see longer dry and warm spells between weak fronts. This is due to building high pressure in central Europe which will compete with the low pressure in the North Atlantic to govern the UK's weather. This high will also bring in some significant heat to Spain, France, and into Germany, which may occasionally reach into the south east of England.

The low pressure tracking into the UK through the week will be driven by the jet stream - which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. There is still a great deal of uncertainty on the strength of the jet stream next week, which is leading to low confidence in the forecast. The UK sits between two rather different air masses, one cool, wet, and windy to the north, and the other hot and dry to the south. A slightly weaker jet stream would allow some of the hotter air from the French heat wave to reach into the UK, resulting in some hot afternoons later in the week. At the same time a slightly stronger jet stream will see wet and windy weather dominate the weather and reach more regularly into the south.

Monday 29 July – Sunday 11 August

Often wet and windy with a few dry and warm breaks

For the end of July and through early August, the weather pattern is expected to remain dominated by low pressure in the North Atlantic. Progressive low pressure tracks will bring outbreaks of rain and some unseasonably windy weather to most of the UK, although more often to the northern half. There will be some drier and warmer spells between fronts, and these will tend to be longer lived for the southern half of the UK, especially the south east of England. These drier spells will be broken up by some fronts which at times will seem very wet for our unusually mostly dry Augusts.

High pressure is expected to gradually build into the area from the south east after it develops over the continent. This will mean that as we head into mid-August, the weather pattern will shift to more settled, drier, and warmer weather in the south and east of the country. The timing of this has been tricky to pin down so far. There is a risk that high pressure may build in much faster, and rain and winds will be pushed off to the west and north into the second week of August, leading to a more summer-like weather pattern. The main source of long-term forecast uncertainty is the potential for tropical storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean through August, which can have a large impact on the weather patterns over the UK. Hurricane season is in full swing, and conditions are perhaps becoming more favourable for some tropical storm development as we head into August, so confidence in the forecast remains low.

Further ahead

We will have a better idea on whether the UK will be tapping into any heat from France for the end of July, and how long it may stick around.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Radar echoes from the south coast this afternoon

but according to BBC South today, not rain but flying ants! I didn't see any ants but rain even less in evidence.

Tuesday 23 Jul - Thursday 1 Aug

This period will tend to see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK, with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could be hot and rather humid at times, especially early to mid next week. Potential for thunderstorms to develop as any hot, settled weather breaks down from the west. Beyond that, the signals become more mixed although overall the northwest to southeast split will most probably continue. The south and southeast is likely to see some rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest.

Friday 2 Aug - Friday 16 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional rain or thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

US weather: Temperature records set to fall as 'dangerous' heatwave predicted

Major cities are making plans to help people cope with the extreme temperatures set to arrive this weekend.

The National Weather Service is predicting high temperatures and humidity across several states, including Michigan and Kansas, while Washington DC will feel almost as hot as Death Valley in California. The capital will bake in a forecast high of 38C (100F), but it will feel closer to 43C (110F) - prompting mayor Muriel Bowser to declare a heat emergency.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-weather-temperature-records-set-to-fall-as-dangerous-heatwave-predicted-11765997

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Early hot spell


• Cooler westerlies soon return


• Rain and shine through August

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/07/19/john-hammond-month-ahead-brief-blast-heat/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Hammond was frequently on the pessimistic side of things throughout last summer, although he was eventually right when the weather turned poor in August. That year he was at odds with the met office seasonal forecasts though, whereas this year they seem to be aligned.

Wednesday 24 Jul - Friday 2 Aug

This period will tend to see a northwest to southeast split in the weather across the UK, with northwestern parts experiencing spells of rain, which could be heavy at times, as well as some periods of strong wind bringing a risk of coastal gales. By contrast, southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could be hot and rather humid at times, especially in the first half of the next week. Thunderstorms could develop as any hot, settled weather breaks down from the west. Beyond that, the forecast is more uncertain, but overall the northwest to southeast split will most probably continue. The south and southeast are likely to see some rain but it will be less frequent than in the northwest.

Saturday 3 Aug - Saturday 17 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. As is often the case in summer, this could well mean plenty of fine, dry weather, interspersed with occasional rain or thundery outbreaks, leading to marked local variations in rainfall. Temperatures are likely to be above average, perhaps more especially in the south and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Thursday 25 Jul - Saturday 3 Aug

A cold front is likely to make some progress eastwards across the UK on Thursday, with the potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some hot or very hot conditions may persist in the east ahead of this, especially in the southeast. Into the weekend, confidence falls low, but following the cold front, fresher conditions will be the most likely. It will be mostly sunny, with a scattering of showers. A northwest to southeast split will be the most likely scenario. The northwest is likely to see further spells of rain and strong winds at times, with temperatures near or a little below average. The south and southeast are likely to see localised heavy rain, with thunderstorms possible, but it will stay warm or very warm into the start of August.

Sunday 4 Aug - Sunday 18 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further rise to showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, perhaps mostly in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head through August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Friday 26 Jul - Sunday 4 Aug

Overnight rain and thunderstorms will clear eastwards on Friday, to sunny spells and occasional showers. The showers will mainly be in the west, with a low risk of thunderstorms, and they will introduce fresher conditions. It will be breezy in the north, with further cloud and rain from the southwest later. Into the weekend, confidence falls low, but fresher conditions will be the most probable. A northwest to southeast split will be the most likely scenario. The northwest is likely to see further spells of rain and strong winds at times, with temperatures near or a little below average. The south and southeast are likely to see drier weather, and here it could still be warm into the start of August.

Monday 5 Aug - Monday 19 Aug

As we move into early August, the final month of the meteorological summer, confidence is low in the forecast with no one single weather pattern looking to dominate. It is most likely that low pressure to the north and northwest of the UK will give further rise to showers or longer spells of rain in the northwest, with the better chance of drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will likely be above average, perhaps mostly in western and southern areas. However, confidence falls as we head through August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast