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The previous thread seems to have died - perhaps it was premature.
Anyway, here's a curiosity - probable development of a tropical storm in the next 5 days, some models say up to hurricane cat 1, from a disturbance moving off the southern US. This is the opposite direction to the usual one.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Invest-92L-Likely-be-Tropical-Storm-Gulf-Mexico-Saturday?cm_ven=cat6-widget
The Atlantic has been quiet because of an outflow of dust from the Sahara but the eastern Pacific is already up to its third named storm, none of them really dramatic.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143913.shtml?cone#contents
Potential for Hurricane to hit New Orleans
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Even if not hurricane (forecast is borderline) 10" rain and a near-record storm surge spell trouble for New Orleans
Originally Posted by: DEW
Been a bit of a dead season so far but still early!!
Meanwhile this storm developing off the coast into the Gulf of Mexico could make landfall as a cat 1 hurricane: - It sort of came out of no where really!!??
To be precise, the predicted storm surge is quite small, about 5', but the Mississippi is currently in flood with water levels about 16' above datum. Add the two together and you get overtopping - design height is 20'
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/New-Orleans-Achilles-Heel-Hurricane-Storm-Surge-During-Mississippi-River-Flood?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Plaquemines parish (the tip of the Mississippi delta) is under a mandatory evacuation order
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-07-10-gulf-coast-barry-preps-louisiana-mississippi-texas
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barry-Churns-Near-Louisiana-Coast-Massive-Rains-Still-Expected?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Barry forecast to come ashore at about midday GMT, after being delayed by an inflow of dry air. Nevertheless, still expected to make hurricane cat 1 status. Inland there are worries about river flooding as it then slowly travels north with several places in Louisiana in line to smash July rainfall records
Almost a Cat 1, but the wind is not the issue
It was a hurricane for 3 hours, apparently, and a couple of minor levees were overtopped. But now the worry is flooding from rainfall, not only local, but as the storm is forecast to follow the Mississippi as it moves inland, there's also a worry that that river will rise further from its already unusually high spring flood level.
So far the Atlantic season has been inactive ...!! Maybe things will change!?
Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
One to watch in mid-Atlantic - 70% chance of development over the next 5 days
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
EDIT - Maybe the one showing up on the GFS0z off New England on 17 August, but that's a long way off!
Hmm, if one develops around 17th August we could be in for a bumpy flight!
Originally Posted by: Caz
July - stand by....
August - come it must.....
Roger
Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons
Interesting read! We are in 2nd week of August soon and we have yet to have one named Hurricane in the Atlantic?Just wanted to share this article:https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-continue-to-forecast-near-average-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season/
urricane Barry
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
A nice distinction in terms of definitions here here.
Hurricane Barry was only active in the Gulf of Mexico - is that part of the Atlantic?
Andrea formed in the Atlantic Ocean, but only made it to Tropical Storm status
It was still part of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Wrong! Barry formed in the Gulf of Mexico and at any rate it never reached Hurricane status: - It remained a Tropical storm with Hurricane gusts perhaps! So we have yet to see our first Hurricane in the Atlantic this 2019 season! :)
Just reading about it here:
https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/tropical-storm-barry-saturday-2019-intl/index.html
I heard a couple of weeks ago that there is an unusually amount of Sahara sand being blown across the central north Atalntic this year, which maybe is helping to stem the development of tropical systems.
Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea
Yes Hot weather few weeks back from Sahara! I heard!
Same for the heat wave 2 weeks ago and the previous one back during End of June and even our first burst of unseasonably warm weather in February when we hit 21c in some parts of the UK.
I only count Hurricanes that are in the Atlantic. Usually by now we would have seen at least 2 or 3. We are struggling to see a TS in the Atlantic yet!? - A bit boring really! - Very benign this season thus far!