Yes certainly as we head towards December a traditional pattern looks like setting up - the pattern that has been forecasted to dominate the winter by the seasonal models.

I don't need to look at the charts this morning. Shropshire has posted which can only mean it looks mild and soggy.

You make the mistake of assuming he is correct. 

His comments are, unlike the ones that precede it, misleading. The five posts before that give a good overall summary of the current outlook.

Up to day 9? Or after day 9?

before, on the day, and after😂

Well not really before as the links which DEW has posted have shown. On the day and after is over 200hr out. I wouldn’t trust charts showing a blizzard then so am a little cautious trusting a milder outlook either. They could well be right but confidence (for me at least) is low beyond five or six days in any scenario (due to verification stats).

If it was a probability issue, which is probably the safest approach, I would say that based on current output milder than average conditions are more probable than average or colder than average in the 7 to 15 day period (with the usual caveat that confidence decreases as time increases).

I have repeatedly made the point in recent weeks that autumn (and spring) often produces the most interesting synoptics for weather enthusiasts. In many cases winter is as dull as ditch water in the UK as a flat pattern becomes established across the Atlantic. Obviously it is the exception to the rule that keeps many of the snow (rather than weather) enthusiasts engaged during December, January and February. At the present time I remain open minded on the possibility that this winter could be one of those exceptions. 

I’m sure snow enthusiasts can be weather enthusiasts too? Other forms of weather are fascinating, snow can be almost magical.

On the subject of snow...there’s no sign of it in the models (away from the hills).

Posting on this forum would (and always has) suggest they are more or less mutually exclusive.

A very good point. Without prejudice I would be interested to hear Steve M's. latest view. I would add he is not the only person who has been flagging this up and it tallies with what some pundits on Twitter have been chirping. However, the GFS / GEFS and ECM32 have not and are not offering much support for a break to a colder pattern in the next 2 to 3 weeks. If anything the trend is towards milder conditions.

No, it shows that people are more likely to discuss the potential of snow and not that they are not weather enthusiasts. 

Using this line of argument would suggest most weather enthusiasts actually prefer bickering over climate and political issues and not the weather.  

There’s quite of bit of pressure on the top of the PV by an Eurasian warming at 10HPa - appearing late end of GFS now for a few days.
Whether this is linked to the significant reduction in the mean zonal vector and how it’s related to the disconnect remains to seen

Amazing over recent years ,we get excellent synoptics in the Autumn months with Southerly tracking lows and high pressure over the Arctic regions,hence why it had been below normal temp wise and very cold over Scandinavia recently.

Then as we head closer to December it's like someone flips a switch and we revert to the usual Zonal mild dross with the Azores high in control.
Absolutely frustrating but UK has always had a rubbish climate in the winter if you enjoy cold and prolonged snow cover.

You be better adviced to book a holiday to parts of Canada to see a proper freeze up, guaranteed every year 😏

At least their not much hype in this forum during the winter months,the other forum .well....

Yes I think expectations are very low this winter, I would think the challenge is to see if we will see the mildest winter ever and/or the mildest ever winter month.

Perhaps more of a challenge would be to discuss the current model output?

On that subject there look like being some chilly nights in the coming days in northern parts. Possibly the coldest of the autumn so far? Beyond then it still looks like a messy picture with temperatures trending more towards average or above and unsettled once again at times.

The thing that stands out for me on the 12z GFS is the real struggle the lows are having in moving east of the meridian - it's like there's an invisible wall there repelling them!

Yes I have noticed that. It has been interesting to see that little low modelled to move up the North Sea from continental Europe this week. 

Yes, I've seen worse runs than this one.

As long as there is no notable rise in pressure over the Mediterranean, there is always a chance of something colder coming along at some later point IMO.

Big spread developing in late Nov and early Dec. 

There seems to be a fair number of posters on various forums looking to the strat again to deliver winter to our shores. The warmings around the surf zone are helping to slowly weaken and lower the zonal winds. In the extended range the warming looks to step up a gear with gfs runs now consistently showing this. It will be very interesting over the coming week or so to see how strong this warming and forcing becomes. It would be very early historically to have a full SSW in early December but not unheard of. This COULD be our ticket to a memorable winter but as we saw last year even with a full SSW and a split vortex it does not guarantee cold to our shore. Having said that a full blown warming is not always needed to produce the goods but the stronger the warming the more likely we would see a split rather than displacement and a stronger negative AO and NAO. Very early days yet though. 

 . 

Interesting.

The 18z throws up a similar pattern but with the Op amongst the coldest runs and everything from 2m values up to 15C or down to just 1-2C. Definitely a case of the mean being meaningless.