You're quite entitled to place your faith in seasonal models, you are not alone in that respect 

You should know though that they're about as useful as the Daily Express in correctly predicting the weather months ahead 

As others have said, to write off the entire winter based on a few mild seasonal model output is madness and not what is needed for this thread 

God Bless The Daily Express!!

Hmmm, jumping the gun a bit there methinks, John.

Have you seen today's MetO update?

need to keep a close eye on the cold air to the north... this has crept further and further south on each run, could have a real impact if those LPs move in

Doesnt quite get there on this run, but its defo one to watch

Given it accuracy last winter (), I for one will not be taking anything that the ECM 30-day forecasts come up with for the coming winter as being set in stone.

 Based on last year any really mild weather shown will eventually appear, in spring. As you say though lots of options around, both mild and cold, in the current output.

I've got a sleet symbol on the BBC forecast for MBY for Monday 

Steady now lol 🤣🤣

Monday December 2nd presumably?

I wonder what joys the ECM 12z will bring shortly.

It looks not bad to me thus far, Michael.

And soeth a Christmas Pancake is delivered upon thee for the second daye of Decembere

then let the dreaded hairdryer begin

For info there’s been an uptick again in the extent of u wind reduction into early Dec:
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

GEFS mean approaching a reversal 

Rare agreement by GFS and ECM at 240 hours.

A welcome change to high pressure and a mild flow. I guess it would be too much to ask for this pattern to persist for the next 12 weeks 

Bank ! 

GFS 240 hrs

ECM 240 hrs

Assuming this verifies as indicated, this will certainly come as a big relief to those areas that have been affected by flooding recently, Steve.

Hi all.

So there is another 7 days of mild weather- but Low Pressure and some wet and windy weather is in order and on the table to discuss- affecting the UK & NW Europe.

Tropical Storm Henrietta affects us on Tuesday 26th and Wednesday 27th November.

It could turn colder by Friday but more rain the weekend of 30th Nov- to Sunday 1st December with cold NE winds in SE England as Saturday’s active Deep Low moves off to Denmark and Belgium et all.

High Pressure returns for Monday 2nd and Tuesday 3rd December that has very mild plume of air for the NW then North Atlantic pushing SW winds across there.

Mostly mild for the next 7 days but cold during 1st December. 12z ECMWF, UKMO and GFS show this setup for us.

USA also for same periods seeing See- Saw temperatures and waves of High and Low Pressure areas just like us in NW Europe and UK.

Pub runs going to be a belter looking at developments of the eastern seaboard/ Newfoundland coast.

Edit: heights over Greeny but doesn’t look solid enough to hold at this point.

I think you were right first time WM ! Looking cold with an improved block

martin

I can't see much to get excited about from a cold/snow point of view.
Looks like some cool air but not cold enough for snow with high pressure edging in around the 10 day mark to bring some welcome dry weather as per Steve's analysis.

Strat temps at 10hpa at 264z shown on 18z GFS run: