well to be fair it might be best to comment at the end of December, not the end of November 😂😂

still, encouraging signs nonetheless of something drier and more seasonal in the first week 👍

I think he’s referring to most months of the year.

trending is good, think we could be looking at rapid inflation coming in the models in next few runs and changing media 

Something definitely brewing could be a snowy election day. Snow rows upto 25!

Week 1 on GFS appears nailed on, well-defined Hp over the UK at the start of the week, declined to a spell of westerlies by the end of it. Then a rather odd-lookng spell IMO as the westerlies break up to leave week 2 with slack LP centres drifting across UK with a generally northerly and cold source of air. Snowfall somewhere, sometime, likely, but no really deep freeze. Brief blast from the south at the weekend 14/15th and then back to the previous pattern. ECM similar to start with, but in week 2 has a better defined trough stretching down from Scandi and HP mid Atlantic, rather than a generalised LP  still cold, though

Jetstream matches the above GFS, becoming weaker and not reaching the UK in week 2 before diving well S

GEFS as above post shows, cold to 3rd, mild to 7th, and dry; then somewhat unsettled and nearly all runs below average temp. Ominously, even Brighton has a snow row figure of 4 for election day (Plymouth 2, Liverpool 4, Aberdeen 9)

The ECM ensembles starting to show a marked slide away from days 10 onwards with some much colder runs appearing.

https://weather.us/forecast/11281273-greasby/ensemble/euro

Let’s see if the trend continues

martin

The synoptics being shown at this range are the sort that often change markedly nearer the time - the Azores High ends up closer, the jet ends up further North.

The TWO forum equivalent of automated output.

It could of course go the other way with the Az high pulling away and the jet tracking even further south than it already has, but I wouldn’t expect you to suggest that.

Spot on Neil. As Ian suggests uncertainty at that range will be high and confidence low. Things may turn out to be milder or colder than currently shown but the current trend is for a colder scenario. Gone is the mild-looking polling day, will it come back?

It's just experience in the modern era tells us that that's the way it is likely to go.

The Models don’t have the modern era programmed into them. 

If it was that simple the models and forecast would factor that in. Unless of course your expertise trumps that of the professionals.

Yes, higher parts of NW Scotland could do well out of the scenario shown (and bright and breezy here thanks to the mountains). 

The ECM 00z ensembles for London confirm a brief 2-3 day return to average to mild conditions late next week and then a steady decline to rather cold and changeable conditions beyond next weekend.

There are lots of reasons.

Fewer people viewing the forum compared to years gone by.

"Seen it all before" syndrome.

From the actual data - again, why does nobody use the full ECM:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow

Next to no chance of any meaningful snow - sleet would, of course, be a bit more likely.

And the GEFS over the past few days has shown the typical scenario - a 3½-day sub -5C 850 spell (shown for several successive runs) has turned into around 12 hours down here and, as usual, it happened in the last 24-36 hours.

Get a decent cluster of -10s at 850 (not a single member gets there in the 0z EPS for London, FWIW), get a 50th percentile showing meaningful snow and I'll get excited. Until then - meh. At least it's not looking awfully zonal and mild, that's something!

Hi Darren

As you know, I said cold zonality and that seldom delivers anything wintry for lowland southern Britain.  The point is, as you say, it’s preferable to mild zonality - and it does make it easier to transition to something colder. With a south-westerly flow or Bartlett you need a complete pattern shift.