well to be fair it might be best to comment at the end of December, not the end of November 😂😂

still, encouraging signs nonetheless of something drier and more seasonal in the first week 👍

  And it could all change on the next run!  Best not to get too smug until after the event but people can’t blamed for commenting on what they see in the models.  

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I think he’s referring to most months of the year.

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Interesting that ECM ends looking not unlike GFS with a split polar vortex and modest upper heights between and a mid-Atlantic ridge with some WAA.

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trending is good, think we could be looking at rapid inflation coming in the models in next few runs and changing media 

...reminds me of a song by Public Enemy 

Something definitely brewing could be a snowy election day. Snow rows upto 25!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Week 1 on GFS appears nailed on, well-defined Hp over the UK at the start of the week, declined to a spell of westerlies by the end of it. Then a rather odd-lookng spell IMO as the westerlies break up to leave week 2 with slack LP centres drifting across UK with a generally northerly and cold source of air. Snowfall somewhere, sometime, likely, but no really deep freeze. Brief blast from the south at the weekend 14/15th and then back to the previous pattern. ECM similar to start with, but in week 2 has a better defined trough stretching down from Scandi and HP mid Atlantic, rather than a generalised LP  still cold, though

Jetstream matches the above GFS, becoming weaker and not reaching the UK in week 2 before diving well S

GEFS as above post shows, cold to 3rd, mild to 7th, and dry; then somewhat unsettled and nearly all runs below average temp. Ominously, even Brighton has a snow row figure of 4 for election day (Plymouth 2, Liverpool 4, Aberdeen 9)

 

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GFS looks good this morning. So lovely to see the potential for cold and seasonal weather during the period we would most love it.

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The ECM ensembles starting to show a marked slide away from days 10 onwards with some much colder runs appearing.

https://weather.us/forecast/11281273-greasby/ensemble/euro

Let’s see if the trend continues

martin

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The synoptics being shown at this range are the sort that often change markedly nearer the time - the Azores High ends up closer, the jet ends up further North.

 

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The TWO forum equivalent of automated output.

It could of course go the other way with the Az high pulling away and the jet tracking even further south than it already has, but I wouldn’t expect you to suggest that.

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Spot on Neil. As Ian suggests uncertainty at that range will be high and confidence low. Things may turn out to be milder or colder than currently shown but the current trend is for a colder scenario. Gone is the mild-looking polling day, will it come back?

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It's just experience in the modern era tells us that that's the way it is likely to go.

 

 

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The Models don’t have the modern era programmed into them. 

 

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If it was that simple the models and forecast would factor that in. Unless of course your expertise trumps that of the professionals.

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@Doc

Seen the output 150-180 could be very good for Northern Scotland - Unstable strong NW winds

stratosphere profiles looking better and better with each passing day. Second half of December could be something special but allowing the imagination to wander can often lead to disappointment. Still very encouraged by what the strat charts are showing. Models are trying to sniff out height rises to our north in the mid to long range, although my feeling post mid month before we see strong blocking to the north and a big pattern change to much colder weather.
In the mean time transient colder snaps are very possible as the transition unfolds.

Yes, higher parts of NW Scotland could do well out of the scenario shown (and bright and breezy here thanks to the mountains). 

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Still essentially cold zonality on offer from later next week after the initial transition to a mobile pattern. Few mild days on offer with generally incursions of cold air interspersed with something around average. As Steve has said, good for higher ground in Scotland, and for the higher parts of northern England, Wales and Ireland at times.

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This

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Could path the way to something of interest later.

A certain warm up after Thursday before what seems to be a solidifying consensus for another cool down mid month:

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

The ECM 00z ensembles for London confirm a brief 2-3 day return to average to mild conditions late next week and then a steady decline to rather cold and changeable conditions beyond next weekend.

 

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The ensembles look great, for December various snowfall chances would have expected it to be busier. We have a Breyer chance than most years of a decent cold spell

There are lots of reasons.

Fewer people viewing the forum compared to years gone by.

"Seen it all before" syndrome.

From the actual data - again, why does nobody use the full ECM:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow

Next to no chance of any meaningful snow - sleet would, of course, be a bit more likely.

And the GEFS over the past few days has shown the typical scenario - a 3½-day sub -5C 850 spell (shown for several successive runs) has turned into around 12 hours down here and, as usual, it happened in the last 24-36 hours.

Get a decent cluster of -10s at 850 (not a single member gets there in the 0z EPS for London, FWIW), get a 50th percentile showing meaningful snow and I'll get excited. Until then - meh. At least it's not looking awfully zonal and mild, that's something!

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Hi Darren

As you know, I said cold zonality and that seldom delivers anything wintry for lowland southern Britain.  The point is, as you say, it’s preferable to mild zonality - and it does make it easier to transition to something colder. With a south-westerly flow or Bartlett you need a complete pattern shift.

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