Looking at how 2019 compares so far with other Januaries that have exceeded 7C as a mean CET, we are just about on course for getting near the record provided this weather type persists for most or all the rest of the month as modelled. These are the graphs for day by day CET and running averages for the month

But then if you look at other Januaries that were ahead of 2019 by this stage of the month but ended up as a "bust" this tells a different story

I think it will be close but no cigar

 

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2020!     At least you’re only one year out. I was ten out this morning.  I started the current conditions thread and had to edit it as I’d put 2010.   

I think it will be no cigar but I’d be happy to be wrong. 

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I always do that - sorry 2020

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I'm struggling to get my brain into 2020 mode on my videos.

No doubt by the time I'm used to 2020 it'll be 2021! 

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Well, the 12z GFS seems a bit bonkers to me, but for what it's worth, it has my CET estimate at a very balmy 7.6*C as of 14th, still has it up at 7.3*C as of 21st, but then hammers it down to 6.1*C as of 27th

That's still some 1.5*C above the LTA though, which goes to show just how mild it's looking otherwise!

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Wow! Fascinating science SC. Keep us updated.

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Met Ofice Hadley       7.3c       Anomaly     3.7c Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                   7.47c     Anomaly      3.31c

Netweather                7.91c     Anomaly      3.72c

Peasedown St John    8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c

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be nice to get a january with a minus 3.7c anonmaly,as if....

This time 10 years ago the running mean was comfortably below freezing and the talk on here would have been about how far below we would end up and whether it would be coldest since 1979/85/87 etc.
I still think a very cold month can happen but of course the synoptics have to be perfect for it.
Hopefully I'll live in a better insulated house if/ when it does happen again because where I live now I think I would enjoy following it on here alot more than actually living through it !

Those seeking cold, snowy winters have been really unlucky in recent years in that there's always been at least one important driving force working against the required patterns establishing.

First it was the solar cycle, then some unhelpful ENSO events (the super Nino; when we benefit from weak to moderate, then a persistent Nina-like tendency even through the weak Nino ocean pattern of last winter) and this time around the big positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event and the QBO being a bit to slow to transition to the easterly phase from westerly. Looks to get there by mid-late Feb.

The +IOD has weakened a lot in the past fortnight, so who knows, maybe Feb will do something interesting - but only if we see the polar vortex weakened a great deal. No real sign of such in the current NWP modelling range; just the possible brief lower-vortex split... and even that isn't looking as pronounced now (GW should be feeling more comfortable today than yesterday!).

 

Next winter, we'll be very well placed in the solar cycle and have a fully easterly QBO. The ultimate combination of those two for supporting blocking patterns that bring cold, potentially snowy weather to Northwest Europe (usually with the UK near the edge, as we know all too well!).

So, who's betting that there will be an unhelpful La Nina event  - although that wouldn't necessarily stand in the way of some notably wintry weather Nov-Dec, as a La Nina can promote strong poleward mid-Atlantic ridges before an eastward shift in the favoured ridge location, to Europe, for Jan-Feb.

This last Nov-Dec, there was a Nina-like atmospheric tendency until nearly mid-Dec, but it was too weak to do more than nudge the jet northward in the mid-Atlantic and southward relative to the UK, bringing us cool to chilly conditions, with a lot of unsettled weather, but without temps even falling low enough for snow away from high ground in some northern parts.

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c         Anomaly         3.8c Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                     7.34c       Anomaly          3.19c

Netweather                  7.94c       Anomaly          3.75c

Peasedown St John     8.2c         Anomaly         2.92c.      

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Hmm - perhaps I spoke too soon; more emphasis on high pressure building right up across the UK in the model runs so far today.

While not especially cold aloft, overnight frosts and chilly days look possible. Something to keep an eye on - the 06z GFS actually puts slightly more of a dent in the CET than that wild 12z of 11th; rough estimate 5.9*C to 27th as opposed to 6.0*C.

Part of that is due to a colder mid-range; beforehand there was more of a westerly flow being retained across the UK. Still time for that to be the actual outcome, not yet time to rule out an exceptionally high CET.

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My logic! It’s bound to turn wintry from 22nd because I’m going on holiday!  It almost always does!  

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Doesn't it normally turn wintry a day or two before you go away, then you're panicky about being able to get to the airport & fly?

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Yes!  You’re right it does turn wintry but it doesn’t usually snow until the day we have to drive to the airport!  I thought I was being clever in 2018 by booking for 1st March but what happened?  Beast from the East!  Then we got it again on our return 16 days later!    

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A sub 6c finish is entirely possible depending upon where and how long the high hangs around, plus the last week is obviously in the laps of the Gods.

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Met Office Hadley        7.3c       Anomaly      3.8c  Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                     7.30c     Anomaly       3.15c

Netweather                  7.88c     Anomaly       3.68c

Peasedown St John     8.2c       Anomaly       2.92c

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The 12z GFS of yesterday dragged my CET estimate all the way down into the low 5s!

However, it was likely among the coldest possible outcomes, with the largest amount of continental flow. Today's runs so far have been far more maritime-dominated, struggling to even produce more than patchy overnight frosts.

So, it appears that anything from low 5s to low 8s is still plausible, with approx. low 6s to mid-7s being the 'probable' range.

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Ha!  I’ll bet you’re just saying that to make me feel better about my 5.2c guess!  

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My goodness - still over 7.0C

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c.     Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                     7.41c      Anomaly      3.26c

Netweather                  7.95c    Anomaly      3.76c

Peasedown St John     8.3c      Anomaly      3.02c.   

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Met Office Hadley        7.4c      Anomaly      3.9c  provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     7.33c    Anomaly      3.18c

Netweather                  7.91c    Anomaly      3.72c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly       2.92c. 

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Rumbled .

No real change in prospects these past two days. Overall model signal is for the high to sit right across the UK until the later next week, then slip away to the southwest, perhaps to a transient cold northwesterly or northerly, after which the pattern looks to flatten out again.

We might finish the month where we began, pattern-wise. Yawn!

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This high pressure could prune a degree off the CET in the next week. By this time next week we could be sitting somewhere close to 6.4c.

The last week is uncertain...deep down I suspect most of us know which way it will go. 

Somewhere between 6.1 and 6.6 is my current end of month estimate...closer to 7 if we drag some long fetch long duration moisture laden SW'lies.

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Met Office Hadley       7.5c      Anomaly    3.9c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                    7.42c    Anomaly     3.27c

Netweather                 7.96c    Anomaly     3.77c

Peasedown St John     8.3c     Anomaly     3.02c.  

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