I'm the one making the 180 degree volte-face? When everyone on here was panicking about planes being grounded 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The usual misrepresentation: nobody was 'panicking about planes being grounded'. What was being highlighted was that the arrangements for air travel were under the control of the EU and a failure to address the issue would cause problems. It was but one of many issues, most of which are down to be dealt with in the 337 days from Saturday.

Maybe we will debate this further as the year unravels.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm the one making the 180 degree volte-face? When everyone on here was panicking about planes being grounded (a completely inconceivable scenario that was never going to happen). The scare stories surrounding brexit were ridiculous and on par with the ridiculous climate change rhethoric.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes that's fine but these are not the only expert opinions I'm hearing. And they are basing these perspectives on dodgy chinese data.

The key thing is, this might blow over into absolutely nothing. But, likewise, it might not.

So we have to take this seriously and prepare for this outcome. If this goes badly it has the potential to be orders of magnitude worse than a 'no deal brexit' and people like you were terrified of that.

All I'm suggesting is we need to take this very seriously and prepare for a worst case scenario.

Although obviously panic isn't helpful either and I'm not suggesting people panic. But there has to be more preparation.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

My hope is it's still possible to contain this but my real worry is that the virus is infectious during an asymtomatic period. i.e there may well be people in the UK that have this but have manifested no or only mild symptons.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

NickR and others were saying, confidently, that planes would be grounded in a no deal brexit. In the end aviation arrangments meant that would obviously not happen.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I don't know what 'preparation' you think is needed but not yet being done.   A vaccine is a year away.

Maybe you think the government should be building isolation hospitals around the country?  

As things stand this looks to be almost wholly contained within China but the extent of global travel means containing it within its borders is very challenging. I think more cases are likely outside China but there's no evidence that this will turn into a pandemic at the moment.

China learned lessons from SARS but still has some way to go culturally - in the sense of a willingness of officials to accept and communicate bad news. Fortunately what it lack seems in openness is working to its advantage in terms of brining in swift draconian measures to try to bring the outbreak under control.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

You are just being ridiculous now.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I agree that the fact this is contagious during the asymptomatic period is a worry.

However I'd still expect there to be far far more cases in Europe by now, if this was to result in a global catastrophe with massive loss of life. Again, think about how many people will have entered Europe from China over the past weeks. I couldn't put a figure on it but I suspect it's a lot. 

The progression and spread seems too slow to me. 

Now I'm trying to be an armchair virologist! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Well for example there was a case of someone that came to the UK from the wuhan fish market. He rang 111 and they took no action because he was asymptiomatic.

Best case scenario this was just one example of blithering incompetence but I suspect the 111 operator was just following the govt line.

And yes we need to be looking into tempory hospitals now because we both know the NHS does not have the capacity to deal with this. If we do not prepare now it could be too late.

And yes closing the border is challenging which is why we need to start preparing for an incremental shutdown of the border. If it takes a month to shutdown the border we need to be making contingency plans now.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I agree that the fact this is contagious during the asymptomatic period is a worry.

However I'd still expect there to be far far more cases in Europe by now, if this was to result in a global catastrophe with massive loss of life. Again, think about how many people will have entered Europe from China over the past weeks. I couldn't put a figure on it but I suspect it's a lot. 

The progression and spread seems too slow to me. 

Now I'm trying to be an armchair virologist! 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Let me join you in some armchair expertise and add that the virus was circulating in China since the Xmas period (at least), so we are talking more than a month now.

I still think the epidemic will probably get worse in the next few weeks and it could easily become a pandemic, but I don't see anything particularly worrying yet.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

On your opening point, it depends on when that conversation took place.  It is only in the last week, and still not fully accepted, that it has been suggested that someone can be contagious before showing symptoms. If the call predated this then there was no incompetence, as you put it.

As for temporary hospitals, we would have had more money in the coffers if we hadn't gone through the pantomime of preparing for a no-deal Brexit.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 Why are you saying that like it's a good thing?! That is the thing that worries me the most.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It pretty much is by now. The point being that there was no foresight at all. No one thought to take sensible precautions just in case. We had to wait until after we had definitive confirmation that it's transmissable during an asymptomatic period by which time it's already too late.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Sorry, but you are now being ridiculous: with the benefit of hindsight you are criticising something you don't understand.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It can be both good and bad. Anyway we are debating something that we just can't know too much about even with all the resources available online. 'Wisest are they who know that they don't know' and all that.

I do agree that it's best to prepare as much as possible.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I'm sorry but it is not an unreasonable precaution to quarantine a man who literally came back from the fish market of Wuhan. This is not about the benefit of hindsight but preparing for a scenario that is worse than you initially think it is.

You go on enough about this with Brexit.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Here we go:

Three suspected cases of the coronavirus were reported in the Indian capital today (Jan. 28) .

The patients had returned from China recently and were admitted to the Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital in New Delhi with respiratory symptoms similar to those of the deadly disease currently gripping the world.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

If it takes hold in India, there will be no stopping a global pandemic.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

@Quantum

From the Guardian live blog... (in relation to SARS)

https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

In an interview with the PA Media news agency, Rohn said it was possible the UK already has cases of coronavirus that have not been detected. “It is possible that somebody has slipped through the net,” she said. “The symptoms are incredibly common to lots of other things that aren’t harmful at all.”

But she added: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a couple of cases soon.”

According to Rohn, the virus was spreading more quickly than Sars but was less deadly. She said it was difficult to know how long the outbreak would last, adding: “It is hard to predict but, certainly, the cat is out of the bag.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Even if it's less deadly than sars it will be on the order of 100s times more dangerous than flu. We know people have died who are young and do not have comprimised immune systems.

I hope that it will become less deadly overtime to which it might.

Everyone should take basic precautions imo

Avoid crowds, wash hands before and after going out e.c.t.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes and avoid touching your face.

Also avoid going on a 2 week holiday to SE Asia..... OOPS. (that's what I'm doing). 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs