The worst of the Chinese outbreak is in Wuhan and the province of Hubei, in which Wuhan sits.  By all accounts the healthcare system there is failing - understandably, given the scale of the problem.  The number of cases and deaths amongst medicaland care workers confirms largely inadequate protective equipment and the pressures they are under.  The reports from there also suggest that anything other than cases due to the virus are being ignored or given low priority.

One day a novel virus will spin the evolutionary mutation wheel of fortune and hit the jackpot; that much is almost inevitable.  For me this is as much about learning the lessons and recognising the lessons that won't be learned.  We have become very complacent about some potentially dangerous/deadly diseases that already use us as hosts (Roger's post earlier about the MMR jab is a gray example).  There are others that the threat is rising, and will rise, due to climate change: malaria (once widespread in Europe), West Nile disease and many others.  The lessons that probably won't be learned are humans having unnecessary close contact with animals that are hosts to viruses that can jump into humans (AIDS, Ebola, this new Coronavirus, for example). Catching and killing for food and 'traditional medicines' and population growth encroaching into wild areas where these diseases are endemic in the animal populations.

The nightmare scenario is something that spreads easily in the air and surfaces (like the common cold), takes months before symptoms appear (like AIDS) and has a high death rate (like Ebola).  With our globalised world with millions travelling by air that scenario would be a real disaster.

But is this new Coronavirus the one?  The evidence says no - unless it sins the wheel some more, which seems a low risk at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

In Singapore 25% of cases have been resolved

In Japan only 4% of cases have been resolved

You are drawing conclusions from a tiny portion of the data.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Why do people keep dismissing this as flu. It’s ridiculous.

I need to seriously consider whether o should start cutting back on social engagements and stocking up on essentials.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

i am drawing conclusions from the information we have as that is all we can do at present. 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Why do people keep dismissing this as flu.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Because it would appear that for many - if not most - people it's not even as serious as 'flu.  You're fine after a few days.   And there's no need to go to the doctors or hospital (unless you want to spread it to people who have pre-existing illnesses .....   which is probably where most of the deaths come in)

Originally Posted by: Essan 

Harvard public heath prof Mac Lipsitch, on coronavirus: “It is likely we’ll see a global pandemic...If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.”

Which would make it one of the deadliest pandemics of all time even with a low mortality rate.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

To be fair its only really getting started regarding the cruise ship 8 now in serious condition. 

Japan mainland has seen a spate of cases the last couple of days which is a worry most seemingly not connected with travel to China.  One even from someone who came back from Hawaii. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

In Singapore 25% of cases have been resolved

In Japan only 4% of cases have been resolved

You are drawing conclusions from a tiny portion of the data.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think  the most likely explanation is that the virus has  mutated   from it's immediate post animal transition form.

Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 

Coronaviruses use RNA rather than DNA.  As I understand it, basically a simple cluster of proteins. There is mutation going on the whole time but it’s chaotic and, if I understand it, far more chance of a mutation that is detrimental to the virus. 

It may simply be that because the authorities were in denial for about a month that allowed the virus to be spread quite widely and treatment was delayed. The consequence is a badly overloaded healthcare system that is ill-equipped to deal with the scale of the problem that they’ve created through that initial denial and inaction.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

we will get far more accurate information from the infected countries outside of China and so far they all seem to be dealing with it very well - mortality rate of 0.5%

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Indeed. 0.5% would make it perhaps several times worse than an ordinary flu virus (ie not one of the novel, species-hopping versions).

I have read that there has been some success with antivirals that target RNA viruses and I assume this is what is being used. It’s the only treatment until a vaccine can be produced, assuming they can isolate enough of the RNA to generate an immune response that will still deal with a level of mutation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Indeed. 0.5% would make it perhaps several times worse than an ordinary flu virus (ie not one of the novel, species-hopping versions).

I have read that there has been some success with antivirals that target RNA viruses and I assume this is what is being used. It’s the only treatment until a vaccine can be produced, assuming they can isolate enough of the RNA to generate an immune response that will still deal with a level of mutation.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Assuming a virality of R0=3 (probably an underestimate) and CFR of 2% (probably an underestimate) already puts this pandemic as one of the worst of all time, if not the worst of all time.

Models can be wrong of course.

But this could get very bad and saying this is just like regular flu is diametrically opposed to reality.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Your R0 guess is within the range that initial estimates have suggested but your rider (“probably an underestimate”) is only supported by one Chinese study and therefore questionable. 

Your CFR guess is way above the range.

Here’s someone who works in the field. He says it’s more contagious but has a lower mortality rate than flu.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/14/coronavirus-very-contagious-but-well-get-past-epidemic-astrazeneca.html

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

i read somewhere that the death rate from flu in the US is 0.05% so it is obviously higher but we won’t have the correct figure until further down the line.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

The highest figure I've seen in the pre-lit and published lit is 6.6

The lowest I've seen for R0 is, I think, 2.2.

I went with the value of 3 and you still complain?

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I have stated before that you cannot at this time point accurately estimate the mortality rate. I guess in the 21st Century where there is a demand for instant answers we will guess using limited evidence because we want to know/be right immediately. Nature, epidemiology and viruses don’t work on the same timescales.

Originally Posted by: doctormog