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Quantum
14 February 2020 18:33:05


 


Idiot. Read what I wrote - I didn’t query your figure, I queried your rider.


Is English not your first language? You seem to struggle with very basic comprehension.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Urgh yeh, I picked a figure that's on the low side with an acknoledgment that, it is probably on the low side....


It's not that hard.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
14 February 2020 18:37:20


 


And in light of that we should be prepared for a worst case scenario imho


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. There are very few cases in this country compared with seasonal flu and the measures you take to avoid that will be as effective ineffective as any other aerosol transmitted virus. In theory our health service should always have procedures and contingencies for any crisis.


As of the current time you are significantly more likely to die of the flu in the U.K. than this new coronavirus. Running around in circles panicking will not change how the virus will spread not will it impact how we (almost the entirety of the population) currently deal with an, at time of writing, nonexistent threat. 


What the coming months hold only time will tell but currently you nor anyone else has sufficient data to put a number on how things will turn out in terms of cases or mortality. The picture is only developing, the guesswork does nothing to clarify things.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
14 February 2020 18:40:08


 


Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. There are very few cases in this country compared with seasonal flu and the measures you take to avoid that will be as effective ineffective as any other aerosol transmitted virus. In theory our health service should always have procedures and contingencies for any crisis.


As of the current time you are significantly more likely to die of the flu in the U.K. than this new coronavirus. Running around in circles panicking will not change how the virus will spread not will it impact how we (almost the entirety of the population) currently deal with an, at time of writing, nonexistent threat. 


What the coming months hold only time will tell but currently you nor anyone else has sufficient data to put a number on how things will turn out in terms of cases or mortality. The picture is only developing, the guesswork does nothing to clarify things.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Seems like a very sensible and factual post to me. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
14 February 2020 18:40:32


 Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. There are very few cases in this country compared with seasonal flu and the measures you take to avoid that will be as effective ineffective as any other aerosol transmitted virus. In theory our health service should always have procedures and contingencies for any crisis.


As of the current time you are significantly more likely to die of the flu in the U.K. than this new coronavirus. Running around in circles panicking will not change how the virus will spread not will it impact how we (almost the entirety of the population) currently deal with an, at time of writing, nonexistent threat. 


What the coming months hold only time will tell but currently you nor anyone else has sufficient data to put a number on how things will turn out in terms of cases or mortality. The picture is only developing, the guesswork does nothing to clarify things.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Way too reasonable, shame on you!

Gandalf The White
14 February 2020 18:41:14

I have stated before that you cannot at this time point accurately estimate the mortality rate. I guess in the 21st Century where there is a demand for instant answers we will guess using limited evidence because we want to know/be right immediately. Nature, epidemiology and viruses don’t work on the same timescales.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Exactly - all you can do is quote the range of values that the professionals are finding, with the necessary caveats.


As I’ve tried to say consistently in this thread, cherry-picking  doomsday values isn’t helpful.


There was an interesting article about this being the first possible pandemic of the Internet era and how the conspiracy theories and outbreaks of nonsense exhibited similar characteristics to the mathematics of virus outbreaks.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
14 February 2020 18:42:30


 


Urgh yeh, I picked a figure that's on the low side with an acknoledgment that, it is probably on the low side....


It's not that hard.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Well clearly it was too hard for you as you’ve still missed the point.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
14 February 2020 18:43:09


 


Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. There are very few cases in this country compared with seasonal flu and the measures you take to avoid that will be as effective ineffective as any other aerosol transmitted virus. In theory our health service should always have procedures and contingencies for any crisis.


As of the current time you are significantly more likely to die of the flu in the U.K. than this new coronavirus. Running around in circles panicking will not change how the virus will spread not will it impact how we (almost the entirety of the population) currently deal with an, at time of writing, nonexistent threat. 


What the coming months hold only time will tell but currently you nor anyone else has sufficient data to put a number on how things will turn out in terms of cases or mortality. The picture is only developing, the guesswork does nothing to clarify things.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I'm not advocating panicing but taking some sensible precautions where possible. There is evidence that limiting your transmissibility by personal actions can be an effective vector of action against a pandemic. Some people will do it naturally which is partly why R0 tends to reduce over time.


And of course not contracting seasonal flu at a time when this is going on is also a really good idea. I would not want to risk passing on seasonal flu to elderly relatives when the coronavirus might put pressure on our health service.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
14 February 2020 19:41:53

First case in Africa reported today (Egypt) and a medical expert talking head on C4 news this evening, described Singapore as a "hub for the virus".


Hope you are self isolating Gandalf.


 

New world order coming.
xioni2
14 February 2020 20:14:25


First case in Africa reported today (Egypt) and a medical expert talking head on C4 news this evening, described Singapore as a "hub for the virus".


Hope you are self isolating Gandalf.


 

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I believe he is visiting his local brexit club and his local Tory party offices daily.


 

Maunder Minimum
14 February 2020 20:17:31


 


I believe he is visiting his local brexit club and his local Tory party offices daily.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 



Perhaps he should go on a skiing holiday in Les Contamines-Montjoie.

New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 February 2020 20:48:38


 


Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. There are very few cases in this country compared with seasonal flu and the measures you take to avoid that will be as effective ineffective as any other aerosol transmitted virus. In theory our health service should always have procedures and contingencies for any crisis.


As of the current time you are significantly more likely to die of the flu in the U.K. than this new coronavirus. Running around in circles panicking will not change how the virus will spread not will it impact how we (almost the entirety of the population) currently deal with an, at time of writing, nonexistent threat. 


What the coming months hold only time will tell but currently you nor anyone else has sufficient data to put a number on how things will turn out in terms of cases or mortality. The picture is only developing, the guesswork does nothing to clarify things.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Absolutely spot on!  


There are two kinds of people in life.  Those who love life and get on with it, and those who worry about death and get on with it!  


None of us will live forever.  Something will get us all but we don’t know what and we don’t know when!  Why waste the time you’ve got worrying about things that haven’t happened?  Life itself is a gamble!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
14 February 2020 21:20:42


 


I believe he is visiting his local brexit club and his local Tory party offices daily.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


LOL, that would be tempting. But not being a member and having no intention of joining the New Brexit Party I think your suggestion is improbable.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
14 February 2020 22:39:33


 


If you were fine after a few days then why do we have 16% cases resolved outside of China? It takes weeks to shake this off. A majority, if not a large majority, end up with both a fever and pneumonia of some form. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Well the fact is, people outside of China - including the UKs "super spreader" and the only Finnish victim - have been declared free of the virus after just a few days .


 

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Essan
14 February 2020 22:43:21


 Individually there is nothing of any worth we can do at this stage beyond normal hygiene. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



We are far more likely, at this stage, to contract the mumps ....

Meanwhile, beware anyone from France where there is a 'flu epidemic

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Roger Parsons
15 February 2020 08:31:52

Reposted to Coronavirus thread.

The Missis gave me Terry Pratchett's book A Slip of the Keyboard for Christmas. He dealt, of course with his "Old Timer's" disease, with the wit and wisdom you would expect from such a wordsmith. We are in our 70s, so we now know of a good many people on the difficult road of Altzheimer's and Parkinson's etc. or folks caring for such people. Some posters here know that situation well. Pratchett was only 59 when diagnosed with PCA, and his observations on the subject are compelling and moving - not that we were in need of much more "moving". I can only speak from a personal point of view, but I would welcome being "rescued" by influenza or COVID-19 rather than ending up bedbound and failing. I have a friend in a local care home who would echo that.

Here's an extract as a taster - and my sadly disturbing thought that epidemics can sometimes offer a blessed relief to some of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/mar/15/a-butt-of-my-own-jokes-terry-pratchett-on-the-disease-that-finally-claimed-him




Roger

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
The Beast from the East
15 February 2020 08:51:05

No wonder the Govt has not followed most other counties and restricted flights from China. We are basically a Chink satellite. We will be eating pangolin soup very soon when the trade deal is signed


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
15 February 2020 08:56:51


No wonder the Govt has not followed most other counties and restricted flights from China. We are basically a Chink satellite. We will be eating pangolin soup very soon when the trade deal is signed


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
15 February 2020 09:22:31

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ally Pally Snowman
15 February 2020 09:22:42

Just the 67 more cases on the cruise ship today 285 altogether.  It has to be going around the air con system surely.  About 11 more cases on the Japanese mainland today 7 connected  to one taxi driver. But apparently only 220 odd cases on mainland China outside Hubei province.  I think its safe to say that the Chinese numbers are complete BS.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
xioni2
15 February 2020 09:32:57


  I think its safe to say that the Chinese numbers are complete BS.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I think it's safe to say that we just don't know this and it could be you who spouts complete BS.


 

doctormog
15 February 2020 09:37:50


 


I think it's safe to say that we just don't know this and it could be you who spouts complete BS.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Agreed. If the Chinese have effectively “sealed off” the affected area it would make sense if there was a much lower infection rate outside that area. As you say though, and like many other things, we cannot know for certain.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Bugglesgate
15 February 2020 09:39:09


Just the 67 more cases on the cruise ship today 285 altogether.  It has to be going around the air con system surely.  About 11 more cases on the Japanese mainland today 7 connected  to one taxi driver. But apparently only 220 odd cases on mainland China outside Hubei province.  I think its safe to say that the Chinese numbers are complete BS.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Either that or they have the balls to properly restrict  "freedom of movement"   from the infected areas.


We all know what would happen if it spread here - the Govt would  do  the square root of FA and if they did restrict anyone's "rights"  to move about there would be an instant court case.


Taking the the greater good for the greatest number of people against a minority is   not necessarily wrong but   it takes a dictatorship to be able to be able to do that.


 


 


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
The Beast from the East
15 February 2020 09:49:13


 


Either that or they have the balls to properly enforce "freedom of movement"   from the infected areas.


We all know what would happen if it spread here - the Govt would  do  the square root of FA and if they did restrict anyone's "rights"  to move about there would be an instant court case.


At some point you have to equate  the greater good for the greatest number of people against a minority.   It takes a dictatorship to be able to do that.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


But considering the damage this has done to their economy with knock on effects globally, would they have been better off just covering it up? The death rate is not that high. Its more like a normal flu than SARS or MERs. Would anyone have even noticed it was a new disease? Just a bad flu season


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bugglesgate
15 February 2020 09:53:04


 


But considering the damage this has done to their economy with knock on effects globally, would they have been better off just covering it up? The death rate is not that high. Its more like a normal flu than SARS or MERs. Would anyone have even noticed it was a new disease? Just a bad flu season


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Interesting point.  I'm no expert on this but  I do wonder if a lot of run of the mill viruses pass between animals and humans and go un- noticed (i.e people catching stuff off their dogs / cats who pick up things from  killing and eating wild animals.


 


 


 

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Ally Pally Snowman
15 February 2020 10:02:03


 


Either that or they have the balls to properly restrict  "freedom of movement"   from the infected areas.


We all know what would happen if it spread here - the Govt would  do  the square root of FA and if they did restrict anyone's "rights"  to move about there would be an instant court case.


Taking the the greater good for the greatest number of people against a minority is   not necessarily wrong but   it takes a dictatorship to be able to be able to do that.


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


Certainly China is the only country in the world that would get away with its nothing short of barbaric quarantining methods. A global pandemic seems inevitable now but we live in hope. We have to hope the death rate is as low as possible it could be anything from 0.1% to 5%.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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