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Polar Low
16 February 2020 10:27:45

Most ens going for around 25mm for London over the next few hours clearance around 21.00


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0


 


 


 

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 10:32:02

Rainfall yesterday came to 12.7mm plus 16.5mm so far today gives a total of 29.2mm from storm Dennis at the moment.  The worst wind seems to have been overnight, with gusts around 55mph, though I did go out yesterday evening and got caught in one at the time when 45mph gusts were being recorded. 


There was a gap in the squall line crossing Kent earlier, which passed over here so we were not affected, but there was a noticeable temperature drop when the cold front came through.


As this is also the fencing and roofing thread () I will also mention that two fence posts in my neighbours fence have broken or come loose in the ground so the fence is blowing around in the breeze.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 10:53:57


 


I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.


I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.


From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Varialbilty around mean average yearly rainfall is most certainly something that could be demonstated by data.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Polar Low
16 February 2020 10:54:01

The emergency post buddy is very good will save other post and fence panels until a clear decision can be made.


https://postbuddysystem.co.uk/product/post-buddy-system/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYAyABEgKTyfD_BwE


other idea is concrete spur or oak spur against prevailing wind very strong and many keep in


https://www.diy.com/departments/forest-garden-concrete-repair-spur-h-1m-w-75mm/5013053172780_BQ.prd?ds_rl=1272379&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYBSABEgLoZPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


 


 




Rainfall yesterday came to 12.7mm plus 16.5mm so far today gives a total of 29.2mm from storm Dennis at the moment.  The worst wind seems to have been overnight, with gusts around 55mph, though I did go out yesterday evening and got caught in one at the time when 45mph gusts were being recorded. 


There was a gap in the squall line crossing Kent earlier, which passed over here so we were not affected, but there was a noticeable temperature drop when the cold front came through.


As this is also the fencing and roofing thread () I will also mention that two fence posts in my neighbours fence have broken or come loose in the ground so the fence is blowing around in the breeze.


Originally Posted by: AJ* 

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 10:56:07


 


I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.


I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.


From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Varialbilty around mean average yearly rainfall is most certainly something that could be demonstated by data.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
marco 79
16 February 2020 11:09:52
My entire fence has succumbed to the wind overnight...5 panels and 3 posts cleanly taken out...Happens to be the side I'm responsible for too !!...Must have been weakened last weekend and clearly couldn't handle two storms within 7 days..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Heavy Weather 2013
16 February 2020 11:13:03
The red warning has now expired. But lots more rain coming into the SW.

This waving front seems to have developed far more ommph. I wonder if they will issue another red warning.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
fairweather
16 February 2020 11:29:37


Most ens going for around 25mm for London over the next few hours clearance around 21.00


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes, today looks wetter here in the South of Essex. Whether it was the London heat sink effect i don't know but there was a big gap in the rainfall radar through London, South Essex and North Kent. Just 2.2mm. Already up to 8mm today.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
idj20
16 February 2020 11:34:02

At 11.15 am, while poor Wales (and other parts of Southern England) are now literally underwater, the Kent Rain Deflector appears to be accidentally re-activated . . .


Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
16 February 2020 11:41:01

My entire fence has succumbed to the wind overnight...5 panels and 3 posts cleanly taken out...Happens to be the side I'm responsible for too !!...Must have been weakened last weekend and clearly couldn't handle two storms within 7 days..

Originally Posted by: marco 79 


Mine too, but its being held up by ivy and the hedge next door. Not sure if its worth getting done as I am thinking of selling up anyway


Spent the morning mopping up the garage as usual. I hate overnight heavy rain, as I am always presented with a horror show when I come downstairs at 7am


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 12:11:20


 


Mine too, but its being held up by ivy and the hedge next door. Not sure if its worth getting done as I am thinking of selling up anyway


Spent the morning mopping up the garage as usual. I hate overnight heavy rain, as I am always presented with a horror show when I come downstairs at 7am


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


My ivy "fence posts" have held up very well and I'm now confident they will see me out - maintenance is low cost and easy as they never rot - they just need a trim with the Stihl twice a year - plus they're environmentally friendly and are a haven for wildlife.


As expected the rainfall here in the flatlands has been light in comparison to elsewhere - whenever I look at the radar there always seems to be a large hole in the trace between The Wash and Cambridge. Either some sort of inverted orographic effect or we're just in the rain shadow of all the high ground to our SW. If you look at the relief map of England you can see why.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Nick Gilly
16 February 2020 12:16:44
Wild & windy yesterday evening and overnight here but it's dropped right out to almost calm now, which I wasn't expecting looking at the isobars. Wet & miserable out there though.
Bolty
16 February 2020 12:25:10
There was some heavy rain and gusty winds for a time yesterday evening, around here. Other than that, it was nowhere near as bad as Storm Ciara was, from an IMBY perspective.
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
idj20
16 February 2020 12:32:55


 


My ivy "fence posts" have held up very well and I'm now confident they will see me out - maintenance is low cost and easy as they never rot - they just need a trim with the Stihl twice a year - plus they're environmentally friendly and are a haven for wildlife.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Joys of having well maintained firmed up cotoneaster hedge around the parameter of my front and back garden where it can bend and flex in the strongest gust and still stay in one piece. 6 foot paneled fencing wouldn't last a week given my exposed coastal location at the harbour area.

Still good as new on this dull and damp afternoon.


Folkestone Harbour. 
JACKO4EVER
16 February 2020 12:34:16
Some crazy flooding between Melton Mowbray and Loughborough, some roads are now rivers
KevBrads1
16 February 2020 12:52:15

Look at these pair of selfish prats driving their cars through a flooded high street in Pontypridd. Its a pity their vehicles didn't conk out with the water. Look at the waves they are creating. Selfish numbskulls


 


http://twitter.com/stephenfairc/status/1228964675091607552


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 13:04:20


The emergency post buddy is very good will save other post and fence panels until a clear decision can be made.


https://postbuddysystem.co.uk/product/post-buddy-system/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYAyABEgKTyfD_BwE


other idea is concrete spur or oak spur against prevailing wind very strong and many keep in


https://www.diy.com/departments/forest-garden-concrete-repair-spur-h-1m-w-75mm/5013053172780_BQ.prd?ds_rl=1272379&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIx6eu4_DV5wIVh7PtCh3MywoZEAQYBSABEgLoZPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


I installed the highlighted one early last week which is also a gate post for a neighbours garden across the compound.


I used one of these


https://www.bradfords.co.uk/details-cfp021


And filled with a couple of these


https://www.bradfords.co.uk/blue-circle-postcrete-20kg-ptc020


The hardest part is removing the old concrete but it is is critical to get down deep. I'm confident the work will last a few years.


https://www.bradfords.co.uk/901-bitumen-paint-black-bbp025


The shed has some roof leaks (minor) so once the sun reaches the back garden properly and it dries up I will paint the felt roof with this and save on having to re-felt the shed which would otherwise be a pain


https://www.bradfords.co.uk/901-bitumen-paint-black-bbp025


I've used this on the shed ridge and it sticks well but not suitable IMO for Brian's dodgy roof...


https://www.screwfix.com/p/bostik-flashband-grey-10m-x-225mm/22704


What a terrible winter here in Dorset. Wettest I can remember.


 


 


Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 13:22:22

Flooding chaos across the country and the top UK story on the Beeb website is "Flack's boyfriend: my heart is broken". 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
haghir22
16 February 2020 13:29:36
The amount of water pouring off Epsom Common is unbelievable, the rangers are out digging trenches as the pond at Stamford Green looks like invading the Cricketers pub soon.

My daughter and I have just seen a huge tree succumb to sodden earth, crashed down in front of us as we were driving past. Quite away from the road fortunately but a site to see especially with no wind gust as the cause.
YNWA
The Beast from the East
16 February 2020 13:29:53


Flooding chaos across the country and the top UK story on the Beeb website is "Flack's boyfriend: my heart is broken". 


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Agree, at least Sky are doing it justice


Perhaps the BBC are operating a Sunday service and don't have many correspondents in the field


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
16 February 2020 13:36:34
I see that Herefordshire have also now declared a major incident.
The Beast from the East
16 February 2020 13:42:16

The amount of water pouring off Epsom Common is unbelievable, the rangers are out digging trenches as the pond at Stamford Green looks like invading the Cricketers pub soon.

My daughter and I have just seen a huge tree succumb to sodden earth, crashed down in front of us as we were driving past. Quite away from the road fortunately but a site to see especially with no wind gust as the cause.

Originally Posted by: haghir22 


My lawn is a lake which is never a good sign. Hope my trees will be ok. Havent  had any come down since Oct 87!


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
picturesareme
16 February 2020 13:50:55


 


Wind wise, it's on a par with Ciara down here - complete with the lights flickering, UPS-clicking conditions. That's actually not normal for winter down here and it's noteworthy that we've had two such storms within a week of each other. Peak gusts at the local yacht club so far are 58 compared with 62 for Ciara. They're in the 50s here, too, going by the shuddering of the (wooden) upstairs of my house.


Rain wise, nothing to write home about yet as it's just fizzling as it heads over Kent. That should change later this morning.


The squall line will be "interesting" later. It's moving much more slowly than the one did with Ciara.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


50-60mph gusts are very typical coastal wind speeds during an atlantic storm, nothing exceptional, and won't be remembered.  


Rainfall has still only seen 26mm here since it set in yesterday - over 24 hours ago!!

Bugglesgate
16 February 2020 13:55:10


Flooding chaos across the country and the top UK story on the Beeb website is "Flack's boyfriend: my heart is broken". 


Originally Posted by: RobN 


 



Both myself and the "ol' man" had a rant about this.  Sad as Flack's death is  at  a personal level, the "derivative" coverage of it is well out of proportion.


Really wet around here -  1 foot deep surface water  floods on some roads  and the river Enborne has burst its banks  at Newtown and Knightsbridge fortunately  no houses nearby.


 


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
lanky
16 February 2020 13:59:32


 


 



Both myself and the "ol' man" had a rant about this.  Sad as Flack's death is  at  a personal level, the "derivative" coverage of it is well out of proportion.


Really wet around here -  1 foot deep surface water  floods on some roads  and the river Enborne has burst its banks  at Newtown and Knightsbridge fortunately  no houses nearby.


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


To be fair the One O'Clock news on BBC1 had the floods in Wales and the Scottish borders as their main story with a long segment for this


I just wonder what the situation will be like in  a few days' time when the main rivers like Ouse and Severn are peaking


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey

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