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Retron
16 February 2020 07:54:20


If you have a look on Flight Radar (nerd alert!) there are plenty of go-arounds happening at Gatwick this morning. The Cathay Pacific flight from Hong Kong has attempted to land at least twice now. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I'd imagine the same would have been true at Heathrow earlier too, albeit the squall line has passed through there now.


The wind's still whomping along here (it sounds like repeated "thump" noises as it bangs into the upstairs of my house) and I suspect that'll be the case for a couple more hours yet: the squall line is now over central London and moving slowly eastwards (slowly compared to Ciara, anyway, more like 50mph than 70 or 80 mph).


There have been a couple more brief power cuts, but it's still on for now. My postcode is showing as being without power on the UK Power Networks map, so I'm lucky!


 


Leysdown, north Kent
forestedge
16 February 2020 08:01:03
34mm of rain since 9am yesterday and local river flooding, definitely not standard!
Roger
Ashurst Bridge (New Forest)
9m ASL
https://www.newforestweather.co.uk 
Brian Gaze
16 February 2020 08:08:23


Looks like they've dressed a grade4 lead onto the tiles, probably because it's easy to dress over the tiles, which hasn't been done too tidily, being above the tiles a grade 7 or 8 would have been much better although harder to dress, a good leadsman would have seen that ok. With that grade of lead the wind wouldn't have lifted it. Much more expensive but probably worth the extra.


Originally Posted by: Jim-55 


It hasn't lifted again overnight so fingers crossed. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
johncs2016
16 February 2020 08:08:36

Day one of Dennis (yesterday) was nothing out of the ordinary in Edinburgh. 50 mph Max Gust, 11mm rainfall (24 hr to 6am today)

Day one of Ciara in Ilkley last weekend we had 73mph Max Gust, 80mm 24hr rain!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Of course, that is just yet another example of why I always say that the weather is usually always more "interesting" elsewhere in the UK, other than here in Edinburgh where our weather is usually always "boring" in comparison although I still wouldn't take anything from the fact that Edinburgh is a great city to visit for other reasons.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 08:16:14

As yet it hasn’t been as bad as last weekend in terms of wind strength and rainfall, unless I slept through it which is unlikely.  However, our local river is much higher and is currently in danger of flooding the main through road but I think that’s more to do with the amount of water that was already there.  Last weekend’s storm came after a few dry days, whereas the past week has been quite wet. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 08:23:43


 


Of course, that is just yet another example of why I always say that the weather is usually always more "interesting" elsewhere in the UK, other than here in Edinburgh where our weather is usually always "boring" in comparison although I still wouldn't take anything from the fact that Edinburgh is a great city to visit for other reasons.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


It would be interesting to see if there was any evidence to actually back up this claim. Is Edinburgh really less prone to extremes, weather that we tend to call 'interesting', than other parts of the country? I think we can all sit there (I know I've done it) and think that the weather is always more interesting elsewhere but do the stats back this up?


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Phil G
16 February 2020 08:41:44
Those gust fronts sure find out any weaknesses in your house. Got water dripping down the flue pipe. Plastic container in action!
johncs2016
16 February 2020 08:53:14


 


It would be interesting to see if there was any evidence to actually back up this claim. Is Edinburgh really less prone to extremes, weather that we tend to call 'interesting', than other parts of the country? I think we can all sit there (I know I've done it) and think that the weather is always more interesting elsewhere but do the stats back this up?


Originally Posted by: Col 


Here is the Wikipedia page which goes in more detail about the climate here in Edinburgh. I will now leave it to others on this forum to study the data which is quoted on that page, compare that with the rest of the rest of the UK and then come back to me with a detailed response to whether or not, they believe that Edinburgh is the most boring part of the UK (or at the very least, one of the most boring parts of the UK) on average when it comes to our weather.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
pdiddy
16 February 2020 09:03:25


 


Here is the Wikipedia page which goes in more detail about the climate here in Edinburgh. I will now leave it to others on this forum to study the data which is quoted on that page, compare that with the rest of the rest of the UK and then come back to me with a detailed response to whether or not, they believe that Edinburgh is the most boring part of the UK (or at the very least, one of the most boring parts of the UK) on average when it comes to our weather.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


intuitively, I would agree that we are less prone to extremes, with the exception being 2010, where it was worse here than other cities.  Topography must have something to do with it as the surrounding hills offer some protection from both Westerly and northerly winds.  Again, this is not based on anything more scientific than experience of living here and watching the weather!

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 09:04:24


 


Here is the Wikipedia page which goes in more detail about the climate here in Edinburgh. I will now leave it to others on this forum to study the data which is quoted on that page, compare that with the rest of the rest of the UK and then come back to me with a detailed response to whether or not, they believe that Edinburgh is the most boring part of the UK (or at the very least, one of the most boring parts of the UK) on average when it comes to our weather.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


But I was asking you, you're the one making the claim.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Retron
16 February 2020 09:11:50
The squall line has now slowed down to ~20mph. As a result the wind's still howling outside, as the relief from it is taking its sweet time getting here!
Leysdown, north Kent
johncs2016
16 February 2020 09:15:09


 


But I was asking you, you're the one making the claim.


Originally Posted by: Col 


Yes, but I also want to hear from others about whether that is true or not. There are after all, members of this forum who have far more knowledge on the subject than what I have and if from the evidence that they feed back to me from the resulting data, they tell me that my claim isn't actually correct, I will then be more than happy to admit that I am wrong in this case.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
16 February 2020 09:32:59


 


Yes, but I also want to hear from others about whether that is true or not. There are after all, members of this forum who have far more knowledge on the subject than what I have and if from the evidence that they feed back to me from the resulting data, they tell me that my claim isn't actually correct, I will then be more than happy to admit that I am wrong in this case.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


I think we are looking for the answer to an anecdotal claim/subjective opinion so I am not sure you will get any statistics to prove or disprove the claim. 


Anyway back to the situation in hand and it looks like parts of Wales are currently being impacted by severe flooding.


johncs2016
16 February 2020 09:35:31


 


I think we are looking for the answer to an anecdotal claim/subjective opinion so I am not sure you will get any statistics to prove or disprove the claim. 


Anyway back to the situation in hand and it looks like parts of Wales are currently being impacted by severe flooding.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


In that case, I will continue to make my claim as before since technically speaking (as you have said), there is nothing that anyone on here can do to disprove that.


EDIT:


Whilst I'm at it, I will block any future posts from any member of this forum who then disputes with that, or argues with that in any way.


 


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Tim A
16 February 2020 09:45:55
Ended up with 33mm of rain here in 24 hours and gusts to 55mph. Whether that is enough rainfall to cause major flooding downstream only time will tell.


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Retron
16 February 2020 09:48:55

Looks like the squall line pretty much died a death in the 10 miles from Grain to Sheppey, not that I'm complaining! The wind speeds have decrased noticably from earlier and the temperature and dewpoint are falling slowly. I guess that's it for the first cold front!

The second cold front is more interesting, in that it should be across Wales and the Midlands... right where all that heavy rain is. I know some of the models were showing a "wave" developing, i.e. it effectively becomes a warm front for a time, leading to a much greater rainfall amount (as it's moving along that much more slowly).

This is what's pepping up the rain over southern Wales, I'd wager, along with orographic enhancement; it's like squeezing water out of a sponge.

Hopefully those in Wales will have taken heed of the warnings and will be in a safe place... unlike the naked bloke in a tent on a boat who had to be rescued by the coastguard last night here!


Leysdown, north Kent
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2020 09:52:42


 


Yes, but I also want to hear from others about whether that is true or not. There are after all, members of this forum who have far more knowledge on the subject than what I have and if from the evidence that they feed back to me from the resulting data, they tell me that my claim isn't actually correct, I will then be more than happy to admit that I am wrong in this case.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Polar Low
16 February 2020 09:53:39

indeed Jim I was suspicious of grade used normal folk put to much trust in these people but to be fair most people don’t know without a lot of research but then they should not do it my thoughts when I Zoomed in on Brian first photo much clearer here




 


 


Looks like they've dressed a grade4 lead onto the tiles, probably because it's easy to dress over the tiles, which hasn't been done too tidily, being above the tiles a grade 7 or 8 would have been much better although harder to dress, a good leadsman would have seen that ok. With that grade of lead the wind wouldn't have lifted it. Much more expensive but probably worth the extra.


Originally Posted by: Jim-55 

Heavy Weather 2013
16 February 2020 09:58:35
Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
16 February 2020 10:06:07

Squall of moderate intensity around 0700 (I've seen worse) but now much quieter; maybe a second batch to come as heavy rain forecast until 1600 with winds pepping up as it clears.


The main action south of London seems to be on the Wey at Guildford and the Mole at Leatherhead, about 30 miles north of here, where emergency flood barriers were being put up in a hurry last night and this morning.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Polar Low
16 February 2020 10:09:38

if you look at 0700 date stamp fax then most likely


https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm


 



Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

nsrobins
16 February 2020 10:10:39

Reviewing a lot of the charts. Has a wave developed along the front hench the red warning for Wales. There does seem to be a lot of rain pushing in down in the SW. I was expecting more of a clearance late
Morning/afternoon

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I’d say most definitely - and it’s on the current 06Z fax chart. E4 has at least five more hours of rain across S Wales to Suffolk and areas south.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tim A
16 February 2020 10:13:07


 


I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.


Originally Posted by: Col 


 


As had been said it is all subjective. 


However from the wiki page what is striking (if corrrect) is that the wettest year ever only recorded 992mm which isnt that extreme and not that much more than the mean . 


However on the other hand Edinburgh has recorded -6c this winter and some snow away fron the coast, more interesting from my point of view than many other UK cities. 


Overall i cant see how the weather is less interesting as many other lowland places especially given its coastal location.


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
johncs2016
16 February 2020 10:21:44


 


I think what we need to determine is exactly what you are claiming. Those statistics for Edinburgh are averages and of course there are warmer/colder/wetter places than Edinburgh. But what do we mean by 'extreme'? Edinburgh may have an average of 700mm rainfall per year but how much does this vary year by year compared to somewhere else that has the same yearly average, Is another location that also averages 700mm per year likely to record higher individual daily totals than Edinburgh? What I am getting at is whether within the averages that Edinburgh has, it is less 'variable' than other places.


Originally Posted by: Col 


I go by my own personal experiences and the experiences from others as that is the best guide to me, as regards to what is actually happening. Since that is something can't be proved or disproved in any way by actual data, I believe that it is always better to just take the word of whoever is making the claim.


I will add though that averages do balance themselves out over time which means that if two different locations have the same average rainfall but with one place having more wetter extremes than the other, that place which has the greater number of wetter extremes would need to also have the same number of drier extremes in order for those same overall averages to be maintained in the longer term.


From this reading the various posts on this forum over the years, it would appear that just about everywhere else has more drier extremes and more wetter extremes than here and that in turn, is what leads to my claim what Edinburgh is therefore, probably the most boring part of the UK as a result when it comes to our weather. That is where my claim lies, but I do recognise that I could also be wrong because the evidence which I have seen so far, only covers those locations where TWO members are actually located.


There are of course, a vast number of locations throughout the UK but there are are only a certain limited number of those locations where TWO members are located and so, who is to say that the story won't be different in locations which haven't been covered by any TWO member? I therefore take that point in that way but I still think that a large enough proportion of the country is covered here on TWO for my claim (of Edinburgh being the most boring place on average when it comes to our weather) to be a valid one.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
idj20
16 February 2020 10:25:36

The squall line has arrived here . . . and it was rather weedy with just a spell of moderate rain, even the wind has died down now . . . seemingly earlier than forecast.

4.2 mm so far today, however, a properly wet day now faces me. A good excuse to just stay in my nightgown watching Star Trek DVDs and not feel guilty for it.


 


Folkestone Harbour. 

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