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xioni2
28 January 2020 13:00:33


I'm the one making the 180 degree volte-face? When everyone on here was panicking about planes being grounded 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You are just being ridiculous now.

Quantum
28 January 2020 13:01:23


 


The usual misrepresentation: nobody was 'panicking about planes being grounded'. What was being highlighted was that the arrangements for air travel were under the control of the EU and a failure to address the issue would cause problems. It was but one of many issues, most of which are down to be dealt with in the 337 days from Saturday.


Maybe we will debate this further as the year unravels.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


NickR and others were saying, confidently, that planes would be grounded in a no deal brexit. In the end aviation arrangments meant that would obviously not happen.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
28 January 2020 13:02:41


 


I'm the one making the 180 degree volte-face? When everyone on here was panicking about planes being grounded (a completely inconceivable scenario that was never going to happen). The scare stories surrounding brexit were ridiculous and on par with the ridiculous climate change rhethoric.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


 


My point sailed right over your head. Never mind.


 


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:09:29


 


Yes that's fine but these are not the only expert opinions I'm hearing. And they are basing these perspectives on dodgy chinese data.


The key thing is, this might blow over into absolutely nothing. But, likewise, it might not.


So we have to take this seriously and prepare for this outcome. If this goes badly it has the potential to be orders of magnitude worse than a 'no deal brexit' and people like you were terrified of that.


All I'm suggesting is we need to take this very seriously and prepare for a worst case scenario.


Although obviously panic isn't helpful either and I'm not suggesting people panic. But there has to be more preparation.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't know what 'preparation' you think is needed but not yet being done.   A vaccine is a year away.


Maybe you think the government should be building isolation hospitals around the country?  


As things stand this looks to be almost wholly contained within China but the extent of global travel means containing it within its borders is very challenging. I think more cases are likely outside China but there's no evidence that this will turn into a pandemic at the moment.


China learned lessons from SARS but still has some way to go culturally - in the sense of a willingness of officials to accept and communicate bad news. Fortunately what it lack seems in openness is working to its advantage in terms of brining in swift draconian measures to try to bring the outbreak under control.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 13:10:00


 


My hope is it's still possible to contain this but my real worry is that the virus is infectious during an asymtomatic period. i.e there may well be people in the UK that have this but have manifested no or only mild symptons.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I agree that the fact this is contagious during the asymptomatic period is a worry.


However I'd still expect there to be far far more cases in Europe by now, if this was to result in a global catastrophe with massive loss of life. Again, think about how many people will have entered Europe from China over the past weeks. I couldn't put a figure on it but I suspect it's a lot. 


The progression and spread seems too slow to me. 


Now I'm trying to be an armchair virologist! 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:12:03


 


NickR and others were saying, confidently, that planes would be grounded in a no deal brexit. In the end aviation arrangments meant that would obviously not happen.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We haven't had a no deal Brexit, have we, so your point is irrelevant.


Let's see how our aviation sector looks in January 2021, when Johnson's unrealistic goal of a comprehensive trade deal this year has duly failed to materialise.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 January 2020 13:12:33


 


I don't know what 'preparation' you think is needed but not yet being done.   A vaccine is a year away.


Maybe you think the government should be building isolation hospitals around the country?  


As things stand this looks to be almost wholly contained within China but the extent of global travel means containing it within its borders is very challenging. I think more cases are likely outside China but there's no evidence that this will turn into a pandemic at the moment.


China learned lessons from SARS but still has some way to go culturally - in the sense of a willingness of officials to accept and communicate bad news. Fortunately what it lack seems in openness is working to its advantage in terms of brining in swift draconian measures to try to bring the outbreak under control.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Well for example there was a case of someone that came to the UK from the wuhan fish market. He rang 111 and they took no action because he was asymptiomatic.


Best case scenario this was just one example of blithering incompetence but I suspect the 111 operator was just following the govt line.


And yes we need to be looking into tempory hospitals now because we both know the NHS does not have the capacity to deal with this. If we do not prepare now it could be too late.


 


And yes closing the border is challenging which is why we need to start preparing for an incremental shutdown of the border. If it takes a month to shutdown the border we need to be making contingency plans now.


 


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:14:35


 


You are just being ridiculous now.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose....

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 January 2020 13:16:33


 


I agree that the fact this is contagious during the asymptomatic period is a worry.


However I'd still expect there to be far far more cases in Europe by now, if this was to result in a global catastrophe with massive loss of life. Again, think about how many people will have entered Europe from China over the past weeks. I couldn't put a figure on it but I suspect it's a lot. 


The progression and spread seems too slow to me. 


Now I'm trying to be an armchair virologist! 


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


It is estimated that patient zero was infected in the middle of December. We only saw the explosion in China earlier this month. My real worry is there is a very large lag because this virus takes a long time to infect people, and a long time before mild symptons merit any kind of concern. From what I'm hearing for the first week or so it's nothing worse than a cold.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:17:30


 


Well for example there was a case of someone that came to the UK from the wuhan fish market. He rang 111 and they took no action because he was asymptiomatic.


Best case scenario this was just one example of blithering incompetence but I suspect the 111 operator was just following the govt line.


And yes we need to be looking into tempory hospitals now because we both know the NHS does not have the capacity to deal with this. If we do not prepare now it could be too late.


 


And yes closing the border is challenging which is why we need to start preparing for an incremental shutdown of the border. If it takes a month to shutdown the border we need to be making contingency plans now.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


On your opening point, it depends on when that conversation took place.  It is only in the last week, and still not fully accepted, that it has been suggested that someone can be contagious before showing symptoms. If the call predated this then there was no incompetence, as you put it.


As for temporary hospitals, we would have had more money in the coffers if we hadn't gone through the pantomime of preparing for a no-deal Brexit.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


xioni2
28 January 2020 13:17:37


I agree that the fact this is contagious during the asymptomatic period is a worry.


However I'd still expect there to be far far more cases in Europe by now, if this was to result in a global catastrophe with massive loss of life. Again, think about how many people will have entered Europe from China over the past weeks. I couldn't put a figure on it but I suspect it's a lot. 


The progression and spread seems too slow to me. 


Now I'm trying to be an armchair virologist! 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Let me join you in some armchair expertise and add that the virus was circulating in China since the Xmas period (at least), so we are talking more than a month now.


I still think the epidemic will probably get worse in the next few weeks and it could easily become a pandemic, but I don't see anything particularly worrying yet.


 

Quantum
28 January 2020 13:18:49


 


Let me join you in some armchair expertise and add that the virus was circulating in China since the Xmas period (at least), so we are talking more than a month now.


I still think the epidemic will probably get worse in the next few weeks and it could easily become a pandemic, but I don't see anything particularly worrying yet.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Why are you saying that like it's a good thing?! That is the thing that worries me the most.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 January 2020 13:21:16


 


On your opening point, it depends on when that conversation took place.  It is only in the last week, and still not fully accepted, that it has been suggested that someone can be contagious before showing symptoms. If the call predated this then there was no incompetence, as you put it.


As for temporary hospitals, we would have had more money in the coffers if we hadn't gone through the pantomime of preparing for a no-deal Brexit.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It pretty much is by now. The point being that there was no foresight at all. No one thought to take sensible precautions just in case. We had to wait until after we had definitive confirmation that it's transmissable during an asymptomatic period by which time it's already too late.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 January 2020 13:28:21

One possible, and plausible, scenario is that it could become more infectious and less potent.


In that eventuality we probably would not contain it at all and it would become another case of seasonal flu.


 


The opposite could also happen. It could become more potent and less infectous.


 


If we have to be optimistic about anything, then I'd say these are probably more likely than it becoming more infectious and more potent. But the problem is the very long asymptomatic period does make that eventuality more likely than it otherwise would be.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
xioni2
28 January 2020 13:29:40


 Why are you saying that like it's a good thing?! That is the thing that worries me the most.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It can be both good and bad. Anyway we are debating something that we just can't know too much about even with all the resources available online. 'Wisest are they who know that they don't know' and all that.


I do agree that it's best to prepare as much as possible.

Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:31:10


 


It pretty much is by now. The point being that there was no foresight at all. No one thought to take sensible precautions just in case. We had to wait until after we had definitive confirmation that it's transmissable during an asymptomatic period by which time it's already too late.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Sorry, but you are now being ridiculous: with the benefit of hindsight you are criticising something you don't understand.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
28 January 2020 13:34:02


 


Sorry, but you are now being ridiculous: with the benefit of hindsight you are criticising something you don't understand.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I'm sorry but it is not an unreasonable precaution to quarantine a man who literally came back from the fish market of Wuhan. This is not about the benefit of hindsight but preparing for a scenario that is worse than you initially think it is.


You go on enough about this with Brexit.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
28 January 2020 13:35:33


 


It can be both good and bad. Anyway we are debating something that we just can't know too much about even with all the resources available online. 'Wisest are they who know that they don't know' and all that.


I do agree that it's best to prepare as much as possible.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes I'm not claiming to be an expert or have high confidence. But treating this very seriously as a potential emergency epidemic in the UK is, imo, very sensible.


As I say you hope for the best case scenario but prepare for the worst. We are doing too much of the former and not enough of the later.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
28 January 2020 13:50:59


 


I'm sorry but it is not an unreasonable precaution to quarantine a man who literally came back from the fish market of Wuhan. This is not about the benefit of hindsight but preparing for a scenario that is worse than you initially think it is.


You go on enough about this with Brexit.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


No, you are still arguing with the benefit of hindsight and without knowing when the telephone call occurred.  At the outset nobody knew anything about this sickness. How do you expect the U.K. authorities to recognise that it was a new and potentially dangerous virus, decide on a course of action and get instructions out based on no information?


Sorry, but you really aren't working this through in your head.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Maunder Minimum
28 January 2020 13:52:49

Here we go:


Three suspected cases of the coronavirus were reported in the Indian capital today (Jan. 28) .


The patients had returned from China recently and were admitted to the Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital in New Delhi with respiratory symptoms similar to those of the deadly disease currently gripping the world.


--------------------------------------------------------------------


If it takes hold in India, there will be no stopping a global pandemic.

New world order coming.
Quantum
28 January 2020 13:58:47


Here we go:


Three suspected cases of the coronavirus were reported in the Indian capital today (Jan. 28) .


The patients had returned from China recently and were admitted to the Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital in New Delhi with respiratory symptoms similar to those of the deadly disease currently gripping the world.


--------------------------------------------------------------------


If it takes hold in India, there will be no stopping a global pandemic.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


We need to prepare to instigate phased travel bans.


A partial border closure for the UK may be necessary with a complete ban on non-essential travel.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 13:59:28

@Quantum


 


From the Guardian live blog... (in relation to SARS)


https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates


In an interview with the PA Media news agency, Rohn said it was possible the UK already has cases of coronavirus that have not been detected. “It is possible that somebody has slipped through the net,” she said. “The symptoms are incredibly common to lots of other things that aren’t harmful at all.”


But she added: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a couple of cases soon.”


According to Rohn, the virus was spreading more quickly than Sars but was less deadly. She said it was difficult to know how long the outbreak would last, adding: “It is hard to predict but, certainly, the cat is out of the bag.


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Quantum
28 January 2020 14:04:58


@Quantum


 


From the Guardian live blog... (in relation to SARS)


https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates


In an interview with the PA Media news agency, Rohn said it was possible the UK already has cases of coronavirus that have not been detected. “It is possible that somebody has slipped through the net,” she said. “The symptoms are incredibly common to lots of other things that aren’t harmful at all.”


But she added: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a couple of cases soon.”


According to Rohn, the virus was spreading more quickly than Sars but was less deadly. She said it was difficult to know how long the outbreak would last, adding: “It is hard to predict but, certainly, the cat is out of the bag.


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Even if it's less deadly than sars it will be on the order of 100s times more dangerous than flu. We know people have died who are young and do not have comprimised immune systems.


I hope that it will become less deadly overtime to which it might.


Everyone should take basic precautions imo


Avoid crowds, wash hands before and after going out e.c.t.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
28 January 2020 14:07:12


 


Even if it's less deadly than sars it will be on the order of 100s times more dangerous than flu. We know people have died who are young and do not have comprimised immune systems.


I hope that it will become less deadly overtime to which it might.


Everyone should take basic precautions imo


Avoid crowds, wash hands before and after going out e.c.t.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes and avoid touching your face.


Also avoid going on a 2 week holiday to SE Asia..... OOPS. (that's what I'm doing). 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Quantum
28 January 2020 14:07:44


 


Yes and avoid touching your face.


Also avoid going on a 2 week holiday to SE Asia..... OOPS. (that's what I'm doing). 


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


In all seriousness, I'd cancel.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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