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Maunder Minimum
19 February 2020 09:34:40


You still haven’t given any reasons to convince me that cruises should be stopped.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Err - the actual evidence?

New world order coming.
speckledjim
19 February 2020 09:37:22


A cruise ship has no bigger reservoir of people than a large hotel and as far as I understand, the air con in cabins is not shared around the ship.  The ship I was on was well disinfected, with crew constantly cleaning public areas and particularly handrails.  I was also impressed that there were notices on toilet door exits advising the use of the tissues provided when touching handles.  I haven’t seen such measures in many other places. 


The Diamond Princess may well be the biggest cluster known outside of China but what about the unknown?   The only reason we know about it is because everyone has been tested and of those showing positive, not all have symptoms needing treatment, even fewer have been severe cases.  Of all the passengers on the ship, there’s a higher percentage who have not contracted the virus at all, as far as we know.


You still haven’t given any reasons to convince me that cruises should be stopped.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


There’s been an issue with one ship and there must have have been many many cruise ships in the area so I also don’t understand why he thinks they should all have been stopped. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
19 February 2020 09:37:40


 


Err - the actual evidence?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The diamond princess, alone, could trigger a global pandemic. The virality on that ship is higher even than Wuhan itself. It's lucky we have avoided it so far but, as I've said before, it still sits somewhere between 'possible' and 'probable'.


When the quarantine ends that could be the watershed moment that triggers it.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
19 February 2020 09:40:03


 


There’s been an issue with one ship and there must have have been many many cruise ships in the area so I also don’t understand why he thinks they should all have been stopped. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Because the issue is something that they, clearly, can't deal with. The quarantine is about to be ended and people just set loose, most of whom haven't been tested yet (and some of which will definitely have the virus).

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
19 February 2020 10:00:15


 


The diamond princess, alone, could trigger a global pandemic. The virality on that ship is higher even than Wuhan itself. It's lucky we have avoided it so far but, as I've said before, it still sits somewhere between 'possible' and 'probable'.


When the quarantine ends that could be the watershed moment that triggers it.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Perhaps we should have torpedoed it


 

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Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 10:02:54


The diamond princess, alone, could trigger a global pandemic. The virality on that ship is higher even than Wuhan itself. It's lucky we have avoided it so far but, as I've said before, it still sits somewhere between 'possible' and 'probable'.


When the quarantine ends that could be the watershed moment that triggers it.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I’ve already answered most of this above, so I won’t repeat myself.


Yes, it’s possible but so are many things and it’s possible that people are getting stressed needlessly. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 10:13:53


Err - the actual evidence?


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

There is no evidence that a cruise ship is more deadly than people wandering around obliviously unaware they’ve been in contact with the virus.  If you close down cruises, you’d have to close anywhere where crowds congregate such as hotels, shopping malls, flights etc. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Quantum
19 February 2020 10:19:10


I’ve already answered most of this above, so I won’t repeat myself.


Yes, it’s possible but so are many things and it’s possible that people are getting stressed needlessly. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


As I've said before a potential pandemic is a low risk, high impact event. The reason people got really worried about things like bird flu or swine flu which ultimately did not live up to the hype was because of their potential. The risk of something like this getting bad is low, but if it happens, it is catostrophic and in the very literal sense of that word.


We don't know the exact ICU rate but let's be optimistic and say it's only around 10%. If this takes off as an epidemic in the UK and, say, 50% of the population get infected over 2 years that is about an additional 1.5M+ ICU cases per year. And it's worse than that because most of them will occur during certain months (probably winter) so won't be spread out evenly. But even if it is, assuming a bed is needed for about a month, that uses up 100% of our entire capacity.


And again every single assumption here is about as optimistic as it can be from the ICU rate, the proportion infected if it takes of as an epidemic, the even distribution of cases, and the number of avalible beds that are capable of providing treatement.


If this takes hold in the UK we will not have a NHS for potentially months. The UK is also not able to implement the draconian Chinese methods that were necessary to limit transmission.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
speckledjim
19 February 2020 10:19:25


 


Because the issue is something that they, clearly, can't deal with. The quarantine is about to be ended and people just set loose, most of whom haven't been tested yet (and some of which will definitely have the virus).


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


They are releasing people who have tested negative. Where does it say they are releasing those who haven’t been tested? If that is what is happening then I agree that is not a good move.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
19 February 2020 10:20:54


 


They are releasing people who have tested negative. Where does it say they are releasing those who haven’t been tested? If that is what is happening then I agree that is not a good move.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I think tommorow the quarantine ends which means that everyone not already tested positive will just be released freely.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
speckledjim
19 February 2020 10:23:16


 


I think tommorow the quarantine ends which means that everyone not already tested positive will just be released freely.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


yes but are you saying they won’t have been tested?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
19 February 2020 10:26:58


There is no evidence that a cruise ship is more deadly than people wandering around obliviously unaware they’ve been in contact with the virus.  If you close down cruises, you’d have to close anywhere where crowds congregate such as hotels, shopping malls, flights etc. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Naturally you cannot close down everything (although the Chinese Government is making a decent fist of doing so).


Point about cruises is that they can be closed down instantly - bang! Would have been a sensible move at the outset.

New world order coming.
Quantum
19 February 2020 10:32:33


 


yes but are you saying they won’t have been tested?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


At the current rate of testing, no.


It would require something ridiculous like a 500% increase; idk the exact figure.


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
speckledjim
19 February 2020 10:41:20


 


At the current rate of testing, no.


It would require something ridiculous like a 500% increase; idk the exact figure.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


so you don’t know for sure, once again you are speculating without access to the facts. That’s pathetic 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 11:05:45


 Naturally you cannot close down everything (although the Chinese Government is making a decent fist of doing so).


Point about cruises is that they can be closed down instantly - bang! Would have been a sensible move at the outset.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Agreed and they did close down the diamond Princess in an effort to contain the virus.  Because a ship can be isolated and its passengers accounted for.  It also presents an opportunity to monitor the virus to give us more scientific clues as to its behaviour.  You can’t do that in hotels, shopping malls etc.


Seriously MM, if I were worried at all, I’d have been more concerned about spending 13 hours on a plane with 400 passengers, than being with 3,000 on a cruise ship.  


Of all the posters on this thread (Gandalf and Joe excepted), I’d be the one with more cause to panic, having spent 14 days cruising the affected areas, yet I’m the least panicked.  Maybe that’s because I’ve experienced it first hand, or maybe it’s my tendency to take things as they come and not to over react, or spread untruths.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 11:14:01


 


yes but are you saying they won’t have been tested?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

In the reports I’ve read, all passengers have been tested.  However, there’s no telling that that’s been correctly reported, so I won’t repeat hearsay. Just as there’s no telling that whatever Q’s read has been correctly reported either.  


I genuinely don’t think they’d be so neglectful as not to take every precaution, especially when the eyes of the world press are on them!  Princess Cruises are big business and I’d think they’d want to keep it that way.


 

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Maunder Minimum
19 February 2020 11:19:48

New report in The Times on the Diamond Princess:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cruise-ship-is-a-coronavirus-factory-warns-expert-x9dmgzbb3


"Cruise ship is a coronavirus factory, warns expert


...


The reaction of foreign governments suggests that they too lack confidence in Japan’s quarantine regime. The United States, Britain and Australia insist that citizens coming off the ship must either return on official evacuation flights and spend a further 14 days in quarantine or delay their return home until it is clear that they have not contracted the virus.


Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University, said that the unprecedented character of the coronavirus, which exists in people who show no symptoms, makes it very difficult for health authorities to deal with.


..."


 

New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 11:30:06


New report in The Times on the Diamond Princess:


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cruise-ship-is-a-coronavirus-factory-warns-expert-x9dmgzbb3


"Cruise ship is a coronavirus factory, warns expert


...


The reaction of foreign governments suggests that they too lack confidence in Japan’s quarantine regime. The United States, Britain and Australia insist that citizens coming off the ship must either return on official evacuation flights and spend a further 14 days in quarantine or delay their return home until it is clear that they have not contracted the virus.


Hitoshi Oshitani, a professor of virology at Tohoku University, said that the unprecedented character of the coronavirus, which exists in people who show no symptoms, makes it very difficult for health authorities to deal with.


..."


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

That last sentence backs up my point.  There could be thousands more people walking around with the virus but no symptoms.  Which also suggests it’s not as deadly as some might imagine. 

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Maunder Minimum
19 February 2020 11:42:18


That last sentence backs up my point.  There could be thousands more people walking around with the virus but no symptoms.  Which also suggests it’s not as deadly as some might imagine. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


It does not back up your point about cruises however - it was a dereliction of duty by the WHO not to have put out an advisory in the early days requesting a suspension of cruises in the region. Cruise ships are perfect vectors for the spread of the virus.

New world order coming.
speckledjim
19 February 2020 11:42:56


In the reports I’ve read, all passengers have been tested.  However, there’s no telling that that’s been correctly reported, so I won’t repeat hearsay. Just as there’s no telling that whatever Q’s read has been correctly reported either.  


I genuinely don’t think they’d be so neglectful as not to take every precaution, especially when the eyes of the world press are on them!  Princess Cruises are big business and I’d think they’d want to keep it that way.


 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


The latest information from the Japanese health ministry is that approx 800 who tested negative have left the ship. 300+ Americans have also left and 692 have tested positive (they won’t be released obviously). That leaves approx 1300 who I’m sure must have been tested by now and will be leaving assuming negative. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 11:55:10


It does not back up your point about cruises however - it was a dereliction of duty by the WHO not to have put out an advisory in the early days requesting a suspension of cruises in the region. Cruise ships are perfect vectors for the spread of the virus.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Maybe you’re missing my point MM, which is that I see no reason to say cruise ships are any more dangerous than other places where crowds congregate.  Anywhere confined is a perfect vector for viruses.  I don’t know if you’ve ever been on a cruise but they are no more confined.


They are however, easier to confine and therefore to test.  

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 February 2020 11:58:33


 


The latest information from the Japanese health ministry is that approx 800 who tested negative have left the ship. 300+ Americans have also left and 692 have tested positive (they won’t be released obviously). That leaves approx 1300 who I’m sure must have been tested by now and will be leaving assuming negative. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

  That sounds more realistic. 

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Ally Pally Snowman
19 February 2020 13:59:22


 


The latest information from the Japanese health ministry is that approx 800 who tested negative have left the ship. 300+ Americans have also left and 692 have tested positive (they won’t be released obviously). That leaves approx 1300 who I’m sure must have been tested by now and will be leaving assuming negative. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


Apparently 3011 out of 3700 have now been tested the rest should be tested over the next 2 days. Source NHK. 621 have tested positive. 


 

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Ally Pally Snowman
19 February 2020 14:07:44

20 more cases in South Korea today 15 connected to a church and one so called super spreader. 


10 more cases on mainland Japan taking it to 84 total can they stop an epidemic will be tough.


3 more cases for Singapore now also on 84, I wonder if the heat and high UV levels help slow spread.


 

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Gandalf The White
19 February 2020 14:24:19


20 more cases in South Korea today 15 connected to a church and one so called super spreader. 


10 more cases on mainland Japan taking it to 84 total can they stop an epidemic will be tough.


3 more cases for Singapore now also on 84, I wonder if the heat and high UV levels help slow spread.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


In the case of Singapore it's largely down to (a) most of the cases being linked to clear clusters based on an initial visitor from China and (b) very good tracing and control.


As the infections appear to occur indoors, where there's generally air conditioning and no sunshine I don't think the weather conditions are much of a factor.

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