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Quantum
21 February 2020 15:03:50


 


 


Trying to keep a lid in this is going to be very very difficult. Some countries will cope better than others but I don't see how we can stop a pandemic now.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And this is the danger of complacency when it occurs at the highest level. Donald Trump literally had passengars from the diamond princess fly commercially back to the US. Two later tested positive.


'It's just the flu'ism is dangerous when people in positions of authority get it.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:04:00


 


 


Trying to keep a lid in this is going to be very very difficult. Some countries will cope better than others but I don't see how we can stop a pandemic now.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


There are only 23 countries that currently have the virus so I think we have a way to go yet. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
21 February 2020 15:06:10


 


There are only 23 countries that currently have the virus so I think we have a way to go yet. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


25 if you include Indonesia and NK which almost certainly have it.


And you only need sustained transmission in 1 to get a pandemic. Exponential growth in South Korea, Iran and potentially Japan too.


The chance of stopping a pandemic is diminishing by the hour.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:07:59


 


25 if you include Indonesia and NK which almost certainly have it.


And you only need sustained transmission in 1 to get a pandemic. Exponential growth in South Korea, Iran and potentially Japan too.


The chance of stopping a pandemic is diminishing by the hour.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


The World Health Organization defines pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease. 

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 15:08:10


North Korea called off its Pyongyang Marathon scheduled for April after imposing a border lockdown and travel curbs to prevent a coronavirus outbreak.


Surely it is only a matter of time before the Tokyo Olympics are called off. July is not that far away.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


I fear for Euro 2020 as well. No one knows how this will go but it has the chance to disrupt/cancel virtually any public event anywhere in the world this year.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 15:09:20


 


 


The World Health Organization defines pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


And when sustained local transmission is occuring in China, Iran, South Korea and probably Japan, North Korea and Indonesia what are the chances of stopping the worldwide spread of the disease?


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:12:16


 


And when sustained local transmission is occuring in China, Iran, South Korea and probably Japan, North Korea and Indonesia what are the chances of stopping the worldwide spread of the disease?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Unlike you, I prefer to focus on what is actually happening rather than panicking about what could happen. I continue to lead a normal life and am looking forward to the comedy festival I'm attending this weekend.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 15:15:26


 


There are only 23 countries that currently have the virus so I think we have a way to go yet. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


It's 32 including Taiwan,  Macau  and Hong Kong,  9 only have one case though, but we are only at the very beginning of this. 


 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%25E2%2580%259320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak&ved=2ahUKEwjSzLOq9-LnAhUYHMAKHVcNBHkQFjAAegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2XfJy5i-ODaEcBouI1HXvE


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 15:15:59


 


Unlike you, I prefer to focus on what is actually happening rather than panicking about what could happen. I continue to lead a normal life and am looking forward to the comedy festival I'm attending this weekend.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


It's far easier to prevent alarm in the future if sensible precautions are taken in the present. The time to put out a fire is not when it has blown wildy out of control.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
21 February 2020 15:17:33

The exponential behaviour in SK at the moment is every bit as extreme as it was in Wuhan near the start of the epidemic.



This will be hard to stop.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:18:24


 


 


It's 32 including Taiwan,  Macau  and Hong Kong,  9 only have one case though, but we are only at the very beginning of this. 


 


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%25E2%2580%259320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak&ved=2ahUKEwjSzLOq9-LnAhUYHMAKHVcNBHkQFjAAegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2XfJy5i-ODaEcBouI1HXvE


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


you are wrong and I was too. There are only currently 22 confirmed countries with current cases. 9 countries have fully resolved all their cases with no deaths and the Philippines has no cases with one death.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
xioni2
21 February 2020 15:19:04


And this is the danger of complacency when it occurs at the highest level. Donald Trump literally had passengars from the diamond princess fly commercially back to the US. Two later tested positive.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Such a shame he didn't invite them to the oval office!


 

speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:19:40


 


It's far easier to prevent alarm in the future if sensible precautions are taken in the present. The time to put out a fire is not when it has blown wildy out of control.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You still think it's sensible to cancel all social events when there is only one case in the UK then?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
xioni2
21 February 2020 15:21:08


 To be fair it is coming to all us. It's simply a matter of timing so there's little point in stressing too much about it. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I don't think it's inevitable, but I've no idea about the probability. It could well be 50/50.


No point in worrying too much about it as you say. Losing sleep about it would probably be more harmful.


 

Quantum
21 February 2020 15:21:57


 


You still think it's sensible to cancel all social events when there is only one case in the UK then?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


South korea took a few days to go from nearly nothing to the exponential phase of the disease. If that happens in the UK you then have to worry about transmission during the asymptomatic and mild period which combined is about 10 days.


Can you guarantee that this won't take off in manor of SK in 10 days time? Ofc not.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 15:22:23


 


you are wrong and I was too. There are only currently 22 confirmed countries with current cases. 9 countries have fully resolved all their cases with no deaths and the Philippines has no cases with one death.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


I get what you mean I should say have had or have cases.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 15:23:21


 


You still think it's sensible to cancel all social events when there is only one case in the UK then?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Exactly what am I losing by cancelling social events? I still see friends/family just not in large groups.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
speckledjim
21 February 2020 15:34:06


 


Exactly what am I losing by cancelling social events? I still see friends/family just not in large groups.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Maybe you lose nothing but I have an active social life so would lose a lot.

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Roger Parsons
21 February 2020 15:40:57


Maybe you lose nothing but I have an active social life so would lose a lot.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 15:42:40

All six new Italian cases are in a serious condition apparently. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
xioni2
21 February 2020 15:53:21


 Exactly what am I losing by cancelling social events? I still see friends/family just not in large groups.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 15:58:21


 



Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Made me smile too!  


I really don’t think it’s possible to contain the virus by some methods described on here because that would mean knowing exactly where it is and nobody actually knows that.  It’s obviously spreading but as the symptoms aren’t immediately evident, we don’t know the extent of the spread.  All we can realistically do is develop a vaccine.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
21 February 2020 16:01:09
Iran has confirmed that it suspects that the virus exists in all cities across the country. It also believes that it originates from Chinese workers in Qom. Glad we have very limited dealings with them.....
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 16:14:57


 


I don't think it's inevitable, but I've no idea about the probability. It could well be 50/50.


No point in worrying too much about it as you say. Losing sleep about it would probably be more harmful.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I meant "stop breathing" in the sense we are all going to die of one thing or another sooner or later!

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Roger Parsons
21 February 2020 16:20:29


Made me smile too!  


I really don’t think it’s possible to contain the virus by some methods described on here because that would mean knowing exactly where it is and nobody actually knows that.  It’s obviously spreading but as the symptoms aren’t immediately evident, we don’t know the extent of the spread.  All we can realistically do is develop a vaccine.  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I wonder how many keyboard epidemiologists have taken part in the special on-line Covid-19-related opinion survey being run this week by "flusurvey" alongside their weekly questionnaire. Or are they content with willy-waving for maximum radius?


https://flusurvey.net/


I have completed the form and know of several other TWO regulars who have.


R.

RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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