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xioni2
21 February 2020 16:21:28


 I meant "stop breathing" in the sense we are all going to die of one thing or another sooner or later!


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Right, don't be such a pessimist then, you need some blue sky thinking.


Quantum
21 February 2020 16:22:19


All six new Italian cases are in a serious condition apparently. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Italy seems to be on the ball thankfully. All the new cases are in Milan and they have shut down schools and public places in the town.


Thank god some countries are taking this seriously.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Brian Gaze
21 February 2020 16:24:49


 


Right, don't be such a pessimist then, you need some blue sky thinking.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I had a colleague at BZW decades ago who had looked into cryogenics and apparently signed up to a US company who had offered to freeze him. Very bright Oxford educated chap but a tad potty I thought.  

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 16:26:53


 


Right, don't be such a pessimist then, you need some blue sky thinking.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 

  Are you suggesting flying somewhere?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 16:28:39


I had a colleague at BZW decades ago who had looked into cryogenics and apparently signed up to a US company who had offered to freeze him. Very bright Oxford educated chap but a tad potty I thought.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Now might be a good time to take that up!  Then again, there might be nobody left to thaw him out!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
21 February 2020 16:33:43
Sweden have confirmed they now have no active cases - another country 100% resolved and a mortality rate of 0%. Currently active now in 21 countries (out of 195).
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Joe Bloggs
21 February 2020 16:33:44

I have some very good advice to share.


If you plan to travel any time soon, especially further afield, do not read this thread in advance. 


I say this in all seriousness. Stick to official foreign office travel advice, and in all likelihood, you'll be fine. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
speckledjim
21 February 2020 16:35:25


I have some very good advice to share.


If you plan to travel any time soon, especially further afield, do not read this thread in advance. 


I say this in all seriousness. Stick to official foreign office travel advice, and in all likelihood, you'll be fine. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Seems eminently sensible to me

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 16:54:43


I have some very good advice to share.


If you plan to travel any time soon, especially further afield, do not read this thread in advance. 


I say this in all seriousness. Stick to official foreign office travel advice, and in all likelihood, you'll be fine. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

  Very sensible and sound advice Joe!  I’d say exactly the same!  


It’s a good job you did that but it’s such a pity you had to endure the scaremongering before you went.  I was lucky, I went the day before this thread started.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Retron
21 February 2020 17:01:15


Stick to official foreign office travel advice, and in all likelihood, you'll be fine. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I'm off to Japan in October and that's what I plan to do.


TBH I still can't even bring myself to be even remotely worried - when it becomes a couple of orders of magnitude worse than normal flu (which kills 10,000+ a year in the UK alone, remember), then I might allow myself the odd qualm, but no more than that.


I will, however, pay attention nearer the time if the FO advise against all travel to Japan.

Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:21:32

8 new cases in Italy 14 in  total now today. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:26:24


 


I'm off to Japan in October and that's what I plan to do.


TBH I still can't even bring myself to be even remotely worried - when it becomes a couple of orders of magnitude worse than normal flu (which kills 10,000+ a year in the UK alone, remember), then I might allow myself the odd qualm, but no more than that.


I will, however, pay attention nearer the time if the FO advise against all travel to Japan.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


I'm not saying anyone shouldn't travel the world and do what they want. All I'm saying is a pandemic is almost certain now.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
21 February 2020 17:29:40


  Very sensible and sound advice Joe!  I’d say exactly the same!  


It’s a good job you did that but it’s such a pity you had to endure the scaremongering before you went.  I was lucky, I went the day before this thread started.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Does it not seem like pure luck that your cruise ship wasn't affected like the other one?
What would you be thinking if you had been stuck on it for 2 or 3 weeks wondering if you were already infected.

North York Moors weather 
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:33:28

10 new cases today for Italy now.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 17:36:53


10 new cases today for Italy now.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


All in Milan though I think so this should, for now, still be considered a single transmission chain.


As I've said before the likelyhood of an epicdemic only becomes high, for a virus with this R0, when you get 3 separate introductions.


 


Trouble is it only takes one screw up and then you have an epidemic.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
21 February 2020 17:37:54



Does it not seem like pure luck that your cruise ship wasn't affected like the other one?
What would you be thinking if you had been stuck on it for 2 or 3 weeks wondering if you were already infected.


Originally Posted by: four 


This is the thing, it's impossible to know when the number of cases will suddenly explode. South Korea took off with no warning at all.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:38:14


  Very sensible and sound advice Joe!  I’d say exactly the same!  


It’s a good job you did that but it’s such a pity you had to endure the scaremongering before you went.  I was lucky, I went the day before this thread started.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


 


I'm genuinely glad you Joe and Gandalf enjoyed your holidays but by the looks of it you got very lucky with the timing.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:40:18


 


All in Milan though I think so this should, for now, still be considered a single transmission chain.


As I've said before the likelyhood of an epicdemic only becomes high, for a virus with this R0, when you get 3 separate introductions.


 


Trouble is it only takes one screw up and then you have an epidemic.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


To avoid a pandemic from here Q would be remarkable but we live in hope. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 17:46:38


 


 


To avoid a pandemic from here Q would be remarkable but we live in hope. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Starting to feel the same way.


Some possible precautions.



  • Shut down all links to Iran and North Korea. Shouldn't be that hard to do.

  • Screen everyone from South Korea and begin preparations to partially close the border and ground commercial non essential flights

  • Ring fence 'epidemic preparation' funds so if necessary we can respond fast

  • Start preparing contingency plans for shutting down public gatherings e.c.t. to limit transmissibility for if/when it arrives here.


 


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Quantum
21 February 2020 17:47:38


 


 


To avoid a pandemic from here Q would be remarkable but we live in hope. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Also we don't have to stop a pandemic, just delay one for long enough so that we can get effective treatment and ideally a vaccine.

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:50:18


 


Starting to feel the same way.


Some possible precautions.



  • Shut down all links to Iran and North Korea. Shouldn't be that hard to do.

  • Screen everyone from South Korea and begin preparations to partially close the border and ground commercial non essential flights

  • Ring fence 'epidemic preparation' funds so if necessary we can respond fast

  • Start preparing contingency plans for shutting down public gatherings e.c.t. to limit transmissibility for if/when it arrives here.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


My feeling now is that even with this it just delays the inevitable. 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
21 February 2020 17:52:32


 


 


My feeling now is that even with this it just delays the inevitable. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


We still need to delay it as long as possible. The longer we do, the more effective our treatment will become, the longer we will have to prepare and the greater the probability we will have a vacinne.


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Gandalf The White
21 February 2020 17:52:46



Does it not seem like pure luck that your cruise ship wasn't affected like the other one?
What would you be thinking if you had been stuck on it for 2 or 3 weeks wondering if you were already infected.


Originally Posted by: four 


It's not pure luck in the case of our ship.  The company cancelled the bookings of anyone who had been in China, Hong Kong or Macau in the preceding two weeks.  At that stage that was almost certainly sufficient.  Then everyone who disembarked at one of the ports of call had their temperature checked at least once.


Nothing in this life is entirely risk free; you make a judgement ibased on the facts available.  Fortunately much of what has been written here by you and a few other souls doesn't qualify as 'facts'.


I think you've got more chance of skidding off the road in your 4WD and ending up roof down in a ditch than Caz or I had of catching the virus.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
21 February 2020 17:55:06

Not all of the Italian cases are in Milan. Two are in venice.


I am relatively optimistic Italy will contain this though, they do seem to be on top of tracking down every contact.


I have no confidence in Iran though.


 


 

2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 2 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Ally Pally Snowman
21 February 2020 17:56:47


 


We still need to delay it as long as possible. The longer we do, the more effective our treatment will become, the longer we will have to prepare and the greater the probability we will have a vacinne.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Vaccine will take a year at least but any delay will help prepare. Only way to slow/stop virus is quarantining basically staying at home. Obviously that brings massive disruption if done on large scale.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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