Too late for that, it is already here.

The trouble with trying to contain it is that the symptoms are, for most people, mild and exactly the sort of symptoms that vast numbers of people have at this time of year: a mild fever and a bit of a cough. Plenty of people could have the virus and never know they had it. 

My wife had ‘flu’ last week and spent 2 days in bed. She may have had the virus, who knows. She’s now skiing in France so perhaps she’s spreading it over there,

So we have already lost a transmission chain.

Not good.

Where?

The first local UK transmission case.

Obviously we still might yet trace it, but it's a real problem that we have already lost one.

I think you are making a basic error of logic here.

Effective tracing is a reliable way of containing the spread but lack of tracing doesn't necessarily mean it's a problem.  The person who caught it may have just been unlucky: a random contact with a stray virus; that doesn't mean automatically that there must be others. I'd agree that on balance there may be others but not that it's inevitably bad news.

There has to be at least one other, who has come into contact with at least one person.

When transmission chains go missing that is when you end up with an uncontrolled outbreak. Tracing this should be a priority.

Yes, but my point was that whilst that may be likely it is not inevitable.

But this has always been a risk from day one, Rob. I recall travelling on the Paris Metro in the 50s and you felt you could smell the germs!

It is true of every public gathering, schools, churches, Drs surgeries.... Teaching was like biological warfare! I went to the cinema this week!*

When I worked in London I gave up using the Tube and walked to work across one of the parks - what an improvement in every way that was!

Stay healthy!

R.

* Parasite - very much enjoyed it - but no clues.....

If you didn't have the latest strain of cold virus when you went back at the start of term, then you would certainly have it two weeks later once transmission and incubation had run their course!

BBC have rational summary and discussion of death rates

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743

but IMO the death rates stated will be lower than in the article as they seem to relate to confirmed cases and omit people (and there must be some) whose immune systems are robust enough to resist the virus to the point of having no symptoms at all.

In today's globalised world, these measures would only be possible for a short time; someone, somewhere will either of choice or of necessity have to return from abroad. It is just possible that the economic damage caused by draconian restrictions will delay the onset into the summer (when flu transmission decreases) or less likely for the year or so that it takes to develop and distribute a vaccine.

Meanwhile, I hope you practice what you preach and have resigned your post which involves travel to and from Denmark - and are maybe even thinking about organising a Home Guard for Worcestershire?

It is true. The infection rate of influenza among healthy adults is about 10%. For Covid 19, it appears to be about 50%.

This is because of drift and shift. Flu mutates each year a bit (drift) leaving many of us with immunity. But when it suddenly shifts (Spanish flu 1918/19) the infection rate jumps because there is no widespread immunity. 

It doesn’t appear to be 50% to me.  Although if it is, that suggests the majority of cases of Covid 19 are very mild or go completely unreported or undetected.  For that very same reason, we don’t know that seasonal flu only affects 10%.  Most of us who have had flu have not even seen a doctor, so we can’t possibly be counted.  

Regardless of case numbers, the symptoms of Covid 19 and seasonal flu appear to be most severe in the same groups, which is no surprise.  

The vast majority of cases of Covid-19 are, indeed, mild - nothing more than cold-like symptoms. The authorities are worried because the infection rate is so much higher.

That is what the urgency is all about. Not because we are entering the world of The Stand, but because the high infection rate means that many more vulnerable people are at risk.

That's why I described it yesterday as a "super cold" rather than flu like illness. What I find odd is that kids don't appear to be suffering as badly from it. 

1) If symptoms are very mild in many people that suggests a level of immunity?

2) If 1 is correct then you would expect kids to suffer more because they are less likely to have developed a level of immunity having been exposed to fewer viruses

It has nothing to do with immunity - we have no immunity to Covid 19. It is because it is primarily a respiratory illness which can develop into pneumonia. Younger people have stronger lungs and so are much less likely to get very ill.

They are WHO figures. But whatever.

There's quite a good piece here:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

Thanks.

I think the reality is that immunity isn’t binary; previous exposure may leave the body with a memory of the virus and therefore improve the response if reinfected but it may only be partial. How the body responds to a new strain depends on how that virus has mutated: that’s clearly the case because otherwise there’d be no need for the annual flu jab.

But it seems clear from a little reading that the body’s immune response is complex: previous exposure is just one factor.

This is interesting: https://www.nhs.uk/news/heart-and-lungs/first-time-flu-infection-may-affect-lifetime-immunity/

Yes, that is a fascinating article. Particularly interesting how some people's immune response is what kills them.

It is clear that people with diabetes are at risk of severe symptoms and possible mortality. Given the number of obese people in Anglo-Western societies, I expect the death rate to be higher here than in China where there are far fewer people with type 2 diabetes or weight issues.