And frankly I'm amazed that the UK has handeled this so well so far. I was expecting it to be terrible, and worse than most other European countries. I've been plesantly suprised.

And although I expected the US to screw up, I did not quite anticipate the absurd level of incompetence we are seeing there.

I was actually thinking of making a medium risk investment this year with my accumulated savings. I'm definitely putting it on hold and fully expecting a global recession.

I would give Iran a U. They really have been absymal

So what happens when China lifts the restrictions? If as some people have said this is a new virus with no immunities isn't the continued spread inevitable anyway, surely it would only take a handful of cases to start this again in another part of China and then onwards?

Whatever the worst grade is, Iran somehow managed to do worse.

I remember a guy I knew that in one of his GCSES did so well in the coursework that even if he got 0% in the exam he would get a B overall. Ended up with a C.

That is Iran (apart from the bit about doing well in the coursework).

I suspect, and I could well be wrong, but these seems like they are setting up for a major jump in cases later today.

I have just seen Matt Hancock arrive for Cobra and he looks really knackered. There faces were quite concerned I thought.

Mind you North Korea's strategy of shooting anyone who looks ill also deserves a special mention. If the regime collapses due to the coronavirus (which is probably more likely than we would all like to think) then words really cannot express the scale of the human tragedy that would result.

They won't completely lift the restrictions.
China is really cracking down on forgeiners with the virus at the moment.

Ironically China is probably one of the safest places to be right now.

Yes Andy that hugging thing seems to be a thing amongst school teachers sometimes over stupid things like did you have a nice holiday that has to stop, never thought that was quite normal to be honest.

Just wondering what everybody's views on this are:

Surely it is better to be exposed to the virus (assuming one is relatively healthy) so as to build immunity than to lock oneself away for weeks on end. This would presumably mitigate the risk of contracting a mutated and deadlier version of Covid-19 next winter.

The European Union has raised its coronavirus risk level from "moderate" to "high", EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says.

China has taken draconian cases to control this, however, the virus has not run riot in places such as SK, Japan, Singapore etc so the figures of 60-80% are not remotely valid.

I have zero medical expertise but that makes sense to me.

I would have thought a mutated version of the virus is more likely to be more benign rather than more deadly.

And by next winter I would expect there to be, if not vaccines, viable treatements (I understand there are dozens of ongoing clinical trials for all kinds of anti viral type stuff).

There, perhaps, is a certain logic to getting the virus now while the health system isn't at it's knees. But the problem is if everyone tries to get the virus early then it makes it more likely it will suddenly come at once. So reducing transmissitivity amongst individuals should be a priority imo.

That was my thoughts too although I realise it's far too early to make assumptions yet.

SK, Japan, Singapore never went into exponential growth. Although any one of them still might.

And frankly I find it quite ridiculous that you are using South Korea as an example, a country that is diametrically opposed to your own personal complacency, which is really the only reason we are not seeing exponential growth there now.

If the UK loses control of the virus then 60-80% or at least a significant minority (say 30%) is conceivable if not probable.

And it's likely if we are complacent about it which you seem to be.

 But when it mutates it will get weaker, that is apparently the usual pattern for viruses to help them survive and not to kill too many hosts

That's why the Chinese took such extreme measures. Better to protect as many people now and wait for the Summer UV heat etc. When it returns next winter, the virus should be weaker and more easily handled by weaker patients

He's probably done a lot of walking round, scurrying between meetings. With those little legs, it's going to take it out of him.

Still, he could have it worse. Major General Brigadier Mark Francois has legs that are around the same length as a Jack Russel's.

I've definitely seen figures like 70% used by medical proffesionals in 'worst case scenario' projections. Not that it particularly matters as even a moderate scenario would lead to millions of people being hospitalized which would cripple our health service.

In fact there is no country on the planet who's healthservice could cope with it if it became a nationwide epidemic. Which is why it is so crucial to delay and flatten any disease outbreak so our NHS has at least a chance of coping.

And I should point out that the only country that has currently seen a nationwide epidemic is Iran.

Even China wasn't truly nationwide with some provinces only seeing isolated outbreaks.

That's ironic, considering that SK now has 4,335 cases in a population of 54 million. That's 80 cases per million, compared to 57 in China and 29 in Italy. So it is by far the worst affected country by that measure on the official stats; of course Iran is another matter.

The key to that is we don’t have figures for those children and adults who will get it and are are most vulnerable to death.

ok for normal family member but bringing it home to very sick children and adults  no.

As I've said before the raw numbers are not that important, the behaviour of the growth is.

Initial introductions are more about luck than anything else. However despite sustained local spread in a cult like community SK has taken this hopelessly unlucky scenario and turned it into something that is showing some semblence of control.

South Korea has the 2nd most cases on the planet but, just like the country at the top of the leaderboard those countries can be optimistic about their short and medium term future. I have no such confidence for the USA and Europe.

EDIT: Should have said 2nd most official cases on the planet. Because Iran obviously has more.