Selected countries' cases of COVID-19 per million head of population:

San Marino 479
South Korea 109
Iceland 71
China 58
Italy 51
Iran 36
Singapore 19.6
Hong Kong 13.9
Switzerland 10.9
Spain 4.9
France 4.3
Germany 3.16
Taiwan 1.76
UK 1.31
Thailand 0.62

So we have a travel ban on China, and advisory on self-immunisation after returning from Thailand if you have symptoms. Yet no-one's mentioning Iceland as one of the most infected countries, nor San Marino which is marginally SOUTH of the line from Florence to Rimini!

By all accounts Trump was more concerned about the economic impact and the effect on the stockmarket.

We know he doesn't read his briefings and doesn't listen so it's hardly surprising that he was initially ignorant about Covid-19.  The trouble is that his administration is light on competent people as well.

Hopefully this will dent his re-election chances.

I think those figures are per million people (based on the UK and Singapore numbers).

I suspect San Marino is skewed by its very low population and proximity to Italy.

I read that one of the problems with the numbers for Iran is that they simply don't have the testing facilities. 

Yes sorry, I'm tired, that is indeed per million people.

Mortality rate on over 100s is 0%

1 centurian caught it and recovered.

He also caught SARS. Poor guy.

EDIT: he caught spanish flu too.

Tbh we can begin to lift the travel bans from China. Outside of Hubei China is cleaner than most other countries.

But we need travel bans for USA, Italy, Iran for sure.

Regarding the 3.4% CFR, I don't understand the confusion. The WHO just reported the current estimate of the CFR based on existing data. This data is heavily skewed by what happened in Wuhan/Hubei, where the virus was out of control in January in extremely densely populated areas. The CFR in China outside Hubei is 0.4%. The CFR will only be estimated better after the epidemic is over, but I'd guess that the data outside of Hubei is more relevant to us and the 'final' CFR will be less than 1% globally.

The WHO has also said more things: that after the first few weeks China did a great job outside of Hubei and there are lessons to be learned for other countries:

• Few cities were actually cut off


• the public was kept properly informed 


• almost everyone knew not to go to a hospital or a doctor's surgery


• hospitals prioritised cases properly


• people self isolated properly

The question is, can we expect the same ?  I've  got serious doubts people will behave reasonably especially WRT not rocking up to hospitals / GP's at the first sign of anything.

As an aside, last week I bought some virucidal gel on ebay for my elderly parents for £18 / 500 mL (looking elsewhere on the Web it is usually  under £5 when available (which it isn't)).  Just looked and the listing has been taken  down, but another sprung up - the cost is now £35. Soap and warm water works fine at home, but this was for  when they were "out and about".  Give it another week or so and  I dread to think what the price will be.  I'll have to ask them to use it sparingly !

Don't ya just love spivs !

I doubt we'll be able to match China's response and I don't mean the (limited) isolation of areas. The more I read about it, it seems like China has probably made the biggest and best disease control effort in history. It was based on science and technology and they mobilised huge resources.

Still and even though it's a silly game, I think there is a reasonable chance that the 'final' global CFR will be less than 0.5%, so just 2-4 times more deadly than the flu. We'll know in a year's time or so.

It could be too rosy a report and they had also messed up in the first few weeks of the epidemic, but this is an excerpt from the WHO/Chinese report:

"While the fundamental principles of this strategy have been consistent since its launch, there has been constant refinement of specific aspects to incorporate new knowledge on the novel coronavirus, the COVID-19 disease, and COVID-19 containment, as rapidly as that knowledge has emerged. The remarkable speed with which Chinese scientists and public health experts isolated the causative virus, established diagnostic tools, and determined key transmission parameters, such as the route of spread and incubation period, provided the vital evidence base for China’s strategy, gaining invaluable time for the response.

As striking, has been the uncompromising rigor of strategy application that proved to be a hallmark in every setting and context where it was examined. There has also been a relentless focus on improving key performance indicators, for example constantly enhancing the speed of case detection, isolation and early treatment. The implementation of these containment measures has been supported and enabled by the innovative and aggressive use of cutting edge technologies, from shifting to online medical platforms for routine care and schooling, to the use of 5G platforms to support rural response operations. "

Those actions will largely affect the rate of spread of the virus; there’s no reason why they would affect the CFR, as far as I can see.

As you say, and I’ve also said several times, once you strip out Wuhan/Hubei the figure is much lower. The news about two main strains is also relevant as the weaker one appears to be in the ascendancy.

I wonder if they are close enough in structure that the less dangerous one might afford some protection against the other. A little like Cow Pox protecting against Small Pox.

COVID vs flu.

I'd suspect the opposite - from a purely ecomonic view, a significant drop in the numbers of elderly and the seriously ill woiuld be much less worse than effectively shutting down a massive chunk of the economy.

Again, that's purely the economic view, not the social view!

 Yes but the study of Virology and disease is a science where as predicting an election result is a mug,s game

Source? Location? Do those figures cover the period since / areas in which flu vaccination has been available to the elderly?A strikingc ontrast all the same.

The figures will not be reliable and the comparison not valid given the sample sizes and timescales available, regardless of the source. They may be an accurate picture of the numbers at hand currently but that’s about it.

You and DEW

Why are people panic buying toilet roll in Australia? 

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-toilet-paper-man-tasered-by-police-after-dispute-in-big-w-store/b5c04f19-a507-46ba-9b60-7187bc1cff85

Uncertainty down under? 

The difference between the UK and the USA over this has been the test regime. The USA has been conducting far fewer tests - only on those who have travelled to the country from an infected region and who complain of feeling ill (so I believe). The UK has been conducting tests on all contacts of those who test positive, which is the only way to manage containment and if the statistics are correct, it has been pretty effective so far - the UK has been testing far more people in these stages than most other countries.

P.S.

• It's been a bad couple of weeks for cruise ships. The Grand Princess ship is being held off the coast of the US state of California after a former passenger died of the virus. Around 3,500 people are on board


• All passengers on board a cruise ship docked in the Greek port of Athens also have to stay onboard the ship, after a former passenger tested positive for the virus

Why in the name of sanity, are people still going on cruises during this period????

Agreed DrM. Data is fascinating to see as long as we can give it some weight - we can't say that too often. If folks can't be arsed to give the sources of the information, at least a link, why post at all? We don't need to be ghoulish about this.

I will offer a bit of advice based on last year's sojourn in hospital. It is a good idea [for those who don't do this already] to have a small "panic pack" that would accompany you [or your dependents] to hospital if you are unlucky enough to get infected with Covid-19. This would include details of your prescriptions, a batch of your current medication and any personal/nok details/phone numbers etc you are likely to need. Other personal effects can quickly be added to this as needed. Here's what the Royal Marsden recommends:

https://www.royalmarsden.nhs.uk/your-care/your-visit/what-should-i-bring-to-hospital

Roger

Because official advice hasn’t said not to travel? Because the risk is still very very low? Because they are likely to have set off a week or more ago when the threat was even lower? Because they didn’t want to lose thousands of pounds?

Not a rational decision - I would not risk my health and risk having to spend a period of enforced quarantine on a floating virus palace, just because I might lose the money I had invested in a holiday.