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Maunder Minimum
07 March 2020 10:53:34

Bonkers people still going on cruises - you think you are going on a holiday, but end up imprisoned on a plague ship instead. People do make some dumb choices:


"


Almost half the 46 passengers and crew tested for the coronavirus onboard the Grand Princess cruise ship were infected, US vice-president Mike Pence announced on Friday.


Of the 21 who had the virus, 19 were crew members, raising fears among passengers that they could have been infected by the staff serving their meals and keeping the ship clean. 


The ship, which has been off the coast of California near San Francisco for two days, will not dock in the city as previously planned but will instead go to a military facility where the remaining 3,400 passengers and crew will be tested. "


"





In Egypt, a cruise ship on the Nile with more than 150 passengers and crew is under quarantine in the southern city of Luxor after 12 people tested positive for the virus. The passengers include American, French and Indian travelers.


A Taiwanese-American passenger tested positive after returning to Taiwan in February, Egyptian health authorities said.


A health official said the 12 people who tested positive were isolated inside the ship while the rest await results. The incident raised Egypt's total number of cases to 15."





New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
07 March 2020 10:56:25

China re-importing the virus:


"


Imported infections hit China





About a quarter of China's new confirmed cases and almost all of those outside the epidemic's epicentre in Wuhan originated outside the country on Friday, according to Reuters. 


Most of these cases, which include infections of Chinese nationals who caught the virus abroad, were in China's northwestern Gansu province, among quarantined passengers who entered the provincial capital of Lanzhou on commercial flights from Iran between March 2 and March 5."





New world order coming.
Roger Parsons
07 March 2020 10:56:51


This is such a classic exchange:


"I just want one pack!" a woman is heard saying to the other woman and her mother.


"No, not one pack," the mother of the woman responds, shielding her trolley which is full of toilet paper.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


But surely, xioni - this is "taking back control"?


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
xioni2
07 March 2020 10:57:54

Now that the virus has started spreading in the UK, I will start working from home for the foreseeable future in order to avoid public transport. No stockpiling though and probably little other change in my lifestyle, although I may turn down some invitations.


If I get it my symptoms are very likely to be mild, but I'd still rather not have this virus attack my lungs.


 

Joe Bloggs
07 March 2020 11:08:25


Now that the virus has started spreading in the UK, I will start working from home for the foreseeable future in order to avoid public transport. No stockpiling though and probably little other change in my lifestyle, although I may turn down some invitations.


If I get it my symptoms are very likely to be mild, but I'd still rather not have this virus attack my lungs.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


The SE Asia debate has gone full circle. 


My family are due to go to Thailand in April. They now have doubts whether they’ll be able to go. Not because the FCO are likely to advise against all essential travel there, but because Thailand may prevent Brits entering the country, if the virus takes hold here as predicted, or, more likely, insist on a two week quarantine on arrival, which would be a nightmare. Europe has become the problem now. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 March 2020 11:08:48


I thought this was a point well made. 
 


https://www.facebook.com/100003340269924/posts/2809958409125474/?d=n 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

An excellent piece that makes perfect sense and echoes my own thoughts!  But sadly, it isn’t what some people want to hear or comprehend! 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Joe Bloggs
07 March 2020 11:14:09


An excellent piece that makes perfect sense and echoes my own thoughts!  But sadly, it isn’t what some people want to hear or comprehend! 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


The problem is, people who make such statements are then accused of being complacent.


I maintain that the entire planet needs to calm down slightly - the economic risks of disproportionate reaction could be far more damaging than the virus itself. 


THAT SAID - the effects of this virus on the NHS are genuinely terrifying, and I would never suggest otherwise. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

xioni2
07 March 2020 11:17:19


">https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/


That really is an impressive piece of research - so hypoxia is main cause of death.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 Yes, that has been clear for some time now: it's a SARS virus, SARS v2 if you want or SARS-CoV-2 as is the official name given by the WHO (Covid-19 is the name of the disease). It's obviously much more infectious than SARS, but less deadly (more dangerous overall).


The WHO report also says that when mechanical ventilation of patients failed, the Chinese used Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) with good results, but it adds that ECMO is very resource demanding and not many healthcare systems can do it on a large scale.


 



Conclusion, 0.7-1.3% is best case scenario and is based on full modern treatment and a huge number will need intensive hospital care to survive in an epidemic.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The report is clear that the mortality rate outside of Hubei is estimated at 0.4%. The problem, as you say, is that many people will need intensive hospital care. Many serious cases in China who recovered were on mechanical ventilation for 3-5 weeks...

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
07 March 2020 11:21:22


 


The problem is, people who make such statements are then accused of being complacent.


I maintain that the entire planet needs to calm down slightly - the economic risks of disproportionate reaction could be far more damaging than the virus itself. 


THAT SAID - the effects of this virus on the NHS are genuinely terrifying, and I would never suggest otherwise. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Yes I agree the strain this could put on the NHS is of great concern.  But that’s no reason to make other aspects of our lives more difficult.  There’s a big difference between being complacent and being rational.  I already think the NHS is under more pressure than it should be, with people wanting tests to ensure they don’t have Covid19 and I really don’t blame them.  I blame the media for scaremongering. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Gandalf The White
07 March 2020 11:36:44


 


 Many points well made indeed Joe.


Re. The drug thing, the relationship between ACE2 and SARS-related mechanism of action is not a new one and an effective treatment using that approach could be a long way off or possibly not even effective. A lot of work will need to be done over a period of time before/if we are to see any related medicine in widespread use for COVID-19.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I agree 100% on both points.


An excellent, balanced piece highlighting what some of us are been saying here: overreacting to what remains a misinscule threat.


All we really need now is villages putting up road blocks to isolate themselves from dangerous outsiders and we'll have returned in a single leap to the Middle Ages, characterised by ignorance and superstition.


 


As for the drug, there have been so many stories already of work on multiple vaccines, possible drug treatments and so on. It's all part of the same pattern: hyperbole and a lack of understanding. Vaccines used to take years to develop; we may have reduced the cycle to 1-2 years but that's it. Nobody should expect a solution for this current outbreak and, if the virus becomes entrenched, probably not for the next outbreak either.


I read that it was the second wave of Spanish Flu that claimed the most lives. We could be in this for the long haul.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
07 March 2020 11:43:49


 


But, they have pretty much the same issues elsewhere in the EU. They’ve outsourced much the same “stuff” we have. 


Originally Posted by: bowser 


Yes, but that wasn't the point I was making. Why do you overreact and misinterpret whenever the EU is mentioned? Serious question.


My point was a strategic one and I agree that other European countries have fallen into the same trap for the same reasons. 


At a time of crisis, such as Covid-19, are we likely to get a more favourable response from our fellow European countries or one thousands of miles away with whom we have little in common beyond trade? Strategically the EU should be looking at security of supply of a range of things from food to energy to pharmaceuticals and more.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
07 March 2020 11:47:06


Yes I agree the strain this could put on the NHS is of great concern.  But that’s no reason to make other aspects of our lives more difficult.  There’s a big difference between being complacent and being rational.  I already think the NHS is under more pressure than it should be, with people wanting tests to ensure they don’t have Covid19 and I really don’t blame them.  I blame the media for scaremongering


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Partly, plus social media. But also a widespread inability to react rationally.


To be fair, not many people have faced this situation before: we have become used to being protected from shocks and ill-health through vaccinations, good hygiene standards and a mostly brilliant healthcare system. Covid-19 is pricking the bubble.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
07 March 2020 11:54:09


Bonkers people still going on cruises - you think you are going on a holiday, but end up imprisoned on a plague ship instead. People do make some dumb choices:


"


Almost half the 46 passengers and crew tested for the coronavirus onboard the Grand Princess cruise ship were infected, US vice-president Mike Pence announced on Friday.


Of the 21 who had the virus, 19 were crew members, raising fears among passengers that they could have been infected by the staff serving their meals and keeping the ship clean. 


The ship, which has been off the coast of California near San Francisco for two days, will not dock in the city as previously planned but will instead go to a military facility where the remaining 3,400 passengers and crew will be tested. "


"





In Egypt, a cruise ship on the Nile with more than 150 passengers and crew is under quarantine in the southern city of Luxor after 12 people tested positive for the virus. The passengers include American, French and Indian travelers.


A Taiwanese-American passenger tested positive after returning to Taiwan in February, Egyptian health authorities said.


A health official said the 12 people who tested positive were isolated inside the ship while the rest await results. The incident raised Egypt's total number of cases to 15."





Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Again....


When did these cruises start and from where?  Two weeks ago there were really only the known mayor hotspots and cancelling a cruise leaving from the UK wouldn't be seen as necessary, given there had been fewer than 100 cases across 60 million people.  


I find it very strange that on the one hand you talk of the economic harm from the virus but then spend so much time advocating actions that would made the harm much worse and much sooner.  Panicky cancellation of holidays is much the same as panicky buying.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
07 March 2020 11:57:30


 


 


My family are due to go to Thailand in April. They now have doubts whether they’ll be able to go. Not because the FCO are likely to advise against all essential travel there, but because Thailand may prevent Brits entering the country


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Never going to happen


Too many middle aged men go there for sex holidays


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Bugglesgate
07 March 2020 12:05:36


 


Again....


When did these cruises start and from where?  Two weeks ago there were really only the known mayor hotspots and cancelling a cruise leaving from the UK wouldn't be seen as necessary, given there had been fewer than 100 cases across 60 million people.  


I find it very strange that on the one hand you talk of the economic harm from the virus but then spend so much time advocating actions that would made the harm much worse and much sooner.  Panicky cancellation of holidays is much the same as panicky buying.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


We ARE  2 weeks on and there have been high profile infections on cruise ships.  Given that a cruise typically goes on for a number of weeks, disembarking  at various places,  can you really evaluate the risks going forward ? 


The known risk is loosing the  cost of the holiday.  The unknown risk is  the virus breaking out  board and being quarantined with an elevated risk of contracting the thing. It's   probably true to say the risks of contraction  are substantially greater than staying at home and taking sensible precautions.  It's a bugger of a choice to make, but if I were in my 70s or 80s I'd probably take the financial hit on the chin at this stage.  My sisters other half's   Dad (80's) and partner (70s) are due to go on one in a few weeks time.  I'll be interested to hear of their decision (if the holiday isn't cancelled  from the providers side by then).


 


 


 


 


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
Joe Bloggs
07 March 2020 12:06:13


 


Never going to happen


Too many middle aged men go there for sex holidays


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Hahah I agree it’s unlikely but Thailand is a funny old place. Very haphazard and inconsistent in their approach, depending on what mood their PM & health minister are in. 


Even if they don’t ban Europeans from coming in, a compulsory 2 week quarantine on arrival would be grim grim grim. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gavin D
07 March 2020 12:09:52
First reported cased in Malta. A 12-year-old girl from Italy.
The Beast from the East
07 March 2020 12:14:02

I wont get it, good luck the rest of you!


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
westv
07 March 2020 12:14:29

Got an email at work on Friday to say someone on the floor above had come back from Italy and was experiencing "flu like symptoms" so they are going to do a "deep clean" of the building.


At least it will be mild!
westv
07 March 2020 12:16:05


I wont get it, good luck the rest of you!


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


This really deserves a mass debate.


At least it will be mild!
The Beast from the East
07 March 2020 12:19:08


 


This really deserves a mass debate.


Originally Posted by: westv 



Anything that releases endorphins helps the immune system. 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
xioni2
07 March 2020 12:19:39


I wont get it, good luck the rest of you!


 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Everyone here is probably a waanker, but you are probably well ahead.


 

The Beast from the East
07 March 2020 12:22:49


 


Eye test time again, perhaps, Beast? Or maybe you are happier the way you are? I am!


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
07 March 2020 12:34:53

Under control in South korea and China.


 


Out of control in Italy and Iran.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 March 2020 12:36:04

It's hard to overstate how well south korea has handeled this.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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