Hong Kong experts say it's not yet possible to say what the mortality rate is. 

Onwards...

Just received an email from my manager in Denmark - a colleague has tested positive as has his wife - place is in lockdown. They had been skiing in Italy recently.

Now here is a question which is bothering me - just why has Italy been hit so hard? I would have expected Malaysia and Thailand and countries like that to be worse affected than somewhere like Italy. Genuine question which puzzles me.

P.S. French legislature now affected (echoes of Iran?):

Reuters news agency is reporting that a member of France's National Assembly has been hospitalised in intensive care after contracting coronavirus.

France's lower house of Parliament made the announcement late on Thursday, but did not identify the legislator.

Two other people working in the dining hall of the assembly were also infected.

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Ive read that the virus was in the country for a while and they hadn’t noticed. Also, a patient went to hospital and wasn’t checked for a good while. During that time he infected a number of people. It’s clear that to stay on top of it you need to act fast to keep it under control. 

Yes, the similarity of symptoms with normal flu and the fact that some only see a mild illness means there’s always the likelihood of it being missed.

It could be as Speck says, because it went unnoticed for a while.  Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t it in Italy that someone was diagnosed three weeks after death?  Or it could be to do with temperature or sunshine.  Malaysia is 30c + with long sunny days, whereas Italy is much colder with shorter days. 

My suspicion is that the virus is deeper into some countries than the official figures show - Thailand, Laos, Malaysia are probably worse affected than we know. Indonesia, Pakistan and India also very suspect - their official numbers are far too low considering their location and populations. Bangladesh, Myanmar and Laos - still zero reports of infection - that defies credulity.

Doesn't bode well for us then  - mind you today doesn't look so bad - must take advantage of it   until the next deluge arrives.

That is a point - Iran actually gets a winter, particularly in the north of the region. Could be good news if warmer weather inhibits the virus. Might also explain why the expected pandemic in Africa appears not to have materialised (yet).

Absolutely, there must be hundreds  of thousands of cases that we don’t know about 

In my view, the Chinese governments and others in authority in that country should face stiff sanctions for this.

If, as seems the case, they knew about the Coronavirus long before they finally admitted they did and if they were trying to prevent doctors in that country going public about it and trying to raise awareness, they need to be held accountable for it.

Just like Iran and now the USA, if there's a shortage of testing kits and testing facilities then they simply don't have the means of identifying cases: it's not wilful misreporting or incompetence (on a day-to-day operational level).

Hi David, the worrying thing about this is the entirely random sequence of events. A random contact with an infected animal, that may in turn have been infected by another wild animal, in a market which happened to be in a city which was a transport hub with an airport and busy port. Then the time of year, with mass movement of people within a few weeks of the initial outbreak. Then the secrecy of the Chinese system. Plus of course the very nature of the virus.

The sobering thing is that this is at least the sixth serious novel virus outbreak in the last fifty years (HIV, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Bird flu, Covid-19).  There have been at least two Ebola outbreaks, one much more serious than the other.  The message is that there are a lot of potentially deadly viruses out there and increasingly close contact between humans and the animal world plus fast global travel makes these more likely.

One day the wheel will spin and throw up something particularly unpleasant with, for us, all the wrong characteristics. 

It’s also possible that in colder climates where winter colds and flu are expected, covid19 has gone undetected due to its similar symptoms.  

Thailand claims a Brit has spread it over there from here, it probably is widespread over here but most victims are not presenting as symptoms are too mild in many cases

The Italy numbers are probably due to mass testing

From an article in today's Times:

"...

Speaking earlier this week, Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London’s faculty of medicine, suggested that the number of coronavirus cases in Italy could be more than 40 times higher than the official total.

Professor Ferguson estimated that there would be “at least” 100,000 cases in the country on Wednesday, when the official tally was 2,500.

He told Today on BBC Radio 4: “For every person who dies we think there might be 100, maybe even 200 people infected.”

..."

• accords with what some of us on here expect to be the reality on the ground.

In response to Beast above - we are mass testing in the UK too - far more than in France for example.

Most viruses of this type are harder to spread in hot and sunny conditions, which is why so few numbers in Australia and S Africa, where we can rely on the figures

How reliable are these tests, and is it universal around the world? Who makes the testing kits in "shithole" countries with no proper health service, like the US

There is a mild histeria in the office this morning. The water in all toilets has stopped working and people are unable to wash their hands.

I am remaining calm.

Vatican city has its first case.

Just a thought re Italy - I assume these affected towns are at high altitude so perhaps the virus spreads more easily in thinner air

Telegraph:

"Emergency health crews arrived by helicopter onto a stricken cruise ship on which 140 British citizens are trapped because of fears of a coronavirus outbreak.

Britons are among 3,400 passengers and crew on the Grand Princess which is floating off the coast of California after being refused permission to dock in San Francisco. Videos taken by passengers show helicopters hovering above the ship, and staff clad in masks and protective gear being lowered onto deck to carry out tests for the virus."

I am sorry, but anyone who went on a cruise following the experience of the Diamond Princess, should probably be certified.