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Maunder Minimum
11 March 2020 13:46:43


 


Draconian measures did stop the spread in China, but I never suggested that they should be used here.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I come back to Taiwan, which has been superb in its management of the situation from the outset, without trashing their economy in the process.


Naturally, by protecting their population, it means they have not acquired immunity to the virus, so they cannot let up their guard, but it does get them closer to the point at which a vaccine becomes approved and available. Only time will tell of course - if Taiwan cannot keep the flood at bay, then they will have the problem too, but since the outbreak was first identified in China, they have done a magnificent job of avoiding a fate similar to other countries.

New world order coming.
Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 13:48:16


 


Er it was prevented in Singapore, it was prevented all over Europe the 'first time' this arrived in January.


Of course it could have been prevented.


Most middle eastern countries prevented the Iran cluster from spreading to their countries too.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 




It was not prevented in Singapore, the spread has been contained.  Singapore currently has 178 cases; 12 new ones today; roughly half have recovered.


If you have a movement of people into the country and within the country then you are going to get cases.


Most middle eastern countries have cases - I suggest you check your facts before posting.


There are cases in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.  Syria isn't reported but they have cases without a doubt.


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 March 2020 13:51:17


Does anybody else half think for a moment "is this it?" every time they cough or feel a slight twinge?


Originally Posted by: westv 

That’s natural and no doubt how most people think!  It’s also probably why so many are being turned away from NHS111 centres. 


Something I haven’t posted on here before: I’ve had a cough since I got back from Asia but I invariably get a cough after a long haul flight that I blame on the air con.  I came home over a month ago, before this virus became widespread and it didn’t worry me one bit.  But if I were just returning, I would probably be ringing 111. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
11 March 2020 13:51:31





It was not prevented in Singapore, the spread has been contained.  Singapore currently has 178 cases; 12 new ones today; roughly half have recovered.


If you have a movement of people into the country and within the country then you are going to get cases.


Most middle eastern countries have cases - I suggest you check your facts before posting.


There are cases in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.  Syria isn't reported but they have cases without a doubt.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


And Jordan

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Chichesterweatherfan2
11 March 2020 13:51:35


 


Indeed and some of the finest armchair experts too.



Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


most of whom appear to frequent this Forum😀😀

Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 13:53:09

Can anyone translate this a bit more? It's not a vaccine as such but whatever it is seems to have worked on the pneumonia side

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://napoli.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/11/news/coronavirus_funziona_farmaco_artrite_sperimentato_a_napoli_migliorato_il_paziente-250936784/


 


Google translate does a decent job:


Immediately a national protocol to extend the use of tocilizumab, an anti-arthritis drug, in patients infected with coronavirus and in critical conditions. This was asked by the oncologist Paolo Ascierto, from Pascale di Napoli: "The drug has proven to be effective against Covid-19 pneumonia".


In Naples, he explains, "the first 2 patients were treated in Italy, in 24 hours the therapy showed excellent results and tomorrow one of the 2 patients will be extubated because his condition has improved. Yesterday, the treatment started for 2 other people and today we will deal with two more ".

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 13:56:02


 


These accusations of complacency are tiresome and inaccurate. As is your suggestion that taking draconian measures would have stopped the spread. Any virologist would tell you such measures, which would almost certainly be economically very harmful, would at very best slow the spread. Time will tell which approaches have been most effective. Until then perhaps leave the epidemiology to the epidemiologists? A measured approach has been taken up to this point, hopefully that will continue. This country has some of the world's finest medical researchers.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



This thread borders on the surreal at times.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
11 March 2020 13:56:16


 


It cannot be prevented , Singapore have announced 12 more cases today. The middle east are announcing new cases daily. The only way any country could prevent it would be to have completely shut down from global society since January and that would have been an idiotic act.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Singapore is not seeing exponential growth.


Europe is about to become the Italian cluster. To suggest that this was inevitable was simply not true.


 


Why are the people that shouted 'it's just flu' back in January now claiming we couldn't have done anything anyway? Perhaps we could have if we hadn't just treated it like a bad cold.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
11 March 2020 13:58:14





It was not prevented in Singapore, the spread has been contained.  Singapore currently has 178 cases; 12 new ones today; roughly half have recovered.


If you have a movement of people into the country and within the country then you are going to get cases.


Most middle eastern countries have cases - I suggest you check your facts before posting.


There are cases in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman.  Syria isn't reported but they have cases without a doubt.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Urgh.


I was talking about sustained local transmission and exponential growth. YES SINGAPORE PREVENTED THAT. I'm not talking about isolated cases which have happened all over the world since January. None of those middle eastern countries are showing exponential growth yet. And none of them are in the bad state that France, Germany and Spain are despite Iranian and Italian clusters appearing at roughly the same time.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 13:59:05


 


Singapore is not seeing exponential growth.


Europe is about to become the Italian cluster. To suggest that this was inevitable was simply not true.


 


Why are the people that shouted 'it's just flu' back in January now claiming we couldn't have done anything anyway? Perhaps we could have if we hadn't just treated it like a bad cold.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Back in January you said, from your bunker, that we would have an epidemic in Europe by early February.


You clearly do not understand epidemiology or virology.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
11 March 2020 14:00:52


 


Back in January you said, from your bunker, that we would have an epidemic in Europe by early February.


You clearly do not understand epidemiology or virology.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


No I did not.


I always claimed it was impossible to know exactly when this would take off and, as a result, a prudent measure was to assume it could happen at any time.


Back in January you were claiming this was nothing to worry about.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
11 March 2020 14:02:21
Breaking: As of 9am 11 March 2020, a total of 27,476 people have been tested: 27,020 negative 456 positive
speckledjim
11 March 2020 14:03:31

Breaking: As of 9am 11 March 2020, a total of 27,476 people have been tested: 27,020 negative 456 positive

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


73 new cases then?

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Quantum
11 March 2020 14:04:24

Breaking: As of 9am 11 March 2020, a total of 27,476 people have been tested: 27,020 negative 456 positive

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


As of only 9am?!


Fck

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
11 March 2020 14:04:44

1,215 people tested to 9am today a slight increase on the same 24 hour period to 9am yesterday

speckledjim
11 March 2020 14:05:13


 


As of only 9am?!


Fck


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


thats the time they always report

Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 14:06:28


 


Urgh.


I was talking about sustained local transmission and exponential growth. YES SINGAPORE PREVENTED THAT. I'm not talking about isolated cases which have happened all over the world since January. None of those middle eastern countries are showing exponential growth yet. And none of them are in the bad state that France, Germany and Spain are despite Iranian and Italian clusters appearing at roughly the same time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You didn't make that at all clear.


In any event you were completely wrong in your assertions about the Middle East/Gulf region.


 


Like Maunder you completely fail to grasp the need for balance and for the timing of actions to be judged correctly.  As you self-quarantined two months ago you should at least understand the issues of timing and responses being proportional to the risk.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
11 March 2020 14:06:32


 


73 new cases then?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


And 9.6% of new cases tested now positive.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
11 March 2020 14:06:42


 


73 new cases then?


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


 


83 new cases

Quantum
11 March 2020 14:07:32


 


thats the time they always report


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


OK not as bad as I thought then.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
11 March 2020 14:07:33


 


As of only 9am?!


Fck


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


FFS - what are you expecting.  That's only 4-5 hours ago.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Quantum
11 March 2020 14:08:56


 


You didn't make that at all clear.


In any event you were completely wrong in your assertions about the Middle East/Gulf region.


 


Like Maunder you completely fail to grasp the need for balance and for the timing of actions to be judged correctly.  As you self-quarantined two months ago you should at least understand the issues of timing and responses being proportional to the risk.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes I did, why would I be talking about isolated cases without sustained local transmission? I've clearly been talking about exponential growth. All of this was response to the post where I suggested the UK is probably entering sustained local transmission now.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
11 March 2020 14:10:35


 


Urgh.


I was talking about sustained local transmission and exponential growth. YES SINGAPORE PREVENTED THAT. I'm not talking about isolated cases which have happened all over the world since January. None of those middle eastern countries are showing exponential growth yet. And none of them are in the bad state that France, Germany and Spain are despite Iranian and Italian clusters appearing at roughly the same time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


These middle eastern countries most like have had exponential growth, but they're simply just not been picked up due to lack of testing. And remember that for most this virus is mild.. 

Gavin D
11 March 2020 14:10:46
I would expect numbers to ramp up in England once testing for up to 10,000 people per day starts at nationwide facilities with results on the day for most.

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