Sorry but that really doesn't fit the evidence. The actual case mortality rate is, what, 1% (the figure is skewed by the lack of testing and the number of mild and asymptomatic cases). Approaching 70% the number of cases dwindles rapidly.  

1% of 70% of 65 million is under 500k. Still a horrendous and, I think, unrealistic number, but way off your 'millions'.

Where healthcare is still readily accessible and functioning. Interesting to me, is the death/recovered ratio. I'm not sure how good the recovered figures are though because I'm not sure how they are recorded.

I've been doing some digging, as the school didn't send out their email on Friday evening to all staff (as they said they would).

There's a group on Facebook for parents of my school and there are loads of them cheering each other that they've got their kids into school...

The school also sent out this email to parents. I'm dreading Wednesday now, as they're almost certainly going to insist I go in every day!

Those pupils on the school site need to attend school for the whole day, 8:35 to 3:00, and must arrive on time. Once here they should assemble in (name of) Canteen, where a register will be taken.

* Pupils do not need to wear their school uniform
* The school canteen will open as normal. Children who qualify for Free School Meals will have lunch provided. Children who use Parent Pay can purchase a lunch on site, however choices will be limited to parents may wish to provide them with packed lunch instead.
* Pupils will not go to lessons in the normal way. They will instead be supervised as they follow the same Google Classroom programme (sic) as those pupils who are not on site. It is unlikely they will be taught by their regular teachers and more likely they will be supervised by other teachers and support staff.
* We will have the same expectations for behaviour when pupils are on site and pupils will have the same consequences if their behaviour falls below the expected standard.
* If a child falls ill during the day, their parent will be contacted and asked to collect them immediately.

So, pretty much business as usual as far as they're concerned. No doubt they'll expect me to replace keyboards and mice etc as kids break them, but I'm going to refuse: I'm not going in the same room as 30 or so kids. I'll also refuse to supervise if asked, even if I lose my job over it - I note the use of the term "support staff" and don't think that's reasonable whatsoever.

Also note how they're going to get everyone in one of the two canteens every morning to register. It's almost as if they want everyone to come down with the virus!

Utterly reckless IMO and shame on some of those parents for being so gleeful that they can send their kids in.

If I'm honest, the government should now give police the power to fine people who are ignoring government quarantine on the spot. In respect to venues, I'd say:

1) The owners of venues which have been ordered to close should now be fined if they are found to be opening their doors.

2) The idiots who are still attending such venues should also be fined as well.

It’s too early to be too prescriptive on mortality rates - we are still in the trend period and a few weeks away at least from closing in on a likely number. My best guess over the next three months is if 60% of the population get infected (30m) and only 50% of adults are symptomatic (5m) and 20% of those need hospital intervention so tested (1m) and - on current rates - 4% of these die you have 40,000.
The rate Italy are going this number is quite realistic.

I (perhaps naively) hope that social pressure could reach a tipping point and make people stay home. Although most of the British public seem to be immune to shame and social embarrassment these days. 

A Doctor  on Andrew Marr explaining how we are just spreading this virus more and more , sounds very concerned 

Indeed, not helped by the schools of course!

At the rate we're going, I fully expect to see thousands of deaths a day in about 3 weeks.

After careful consideration Kew and Wakehurst will be closed today, Sunday 22 March.

We will always put the safety of our staff and visitors first. We cannot guarantee the social distancing required by Government if a large volume of people come to the gardens for Mother's Day today. That’s why we are closing the gardens. We apologise for any inconvenience this causes, but we believe that this is the best way to do our part to tackle the growing pandemic caused by coronavirus (COVID-19).

The Tele has a diagram of the NICE guidelines on treatment. Click for full size.

At one end of the scale, with a score of one, are the “Very Fit” - people who are “robust, active, energetic and motivated”, and who “exercise regularly”. At the other end, with a score of nine, are the “Terminally ill”.

The NICE algorithm divides patients at a score of five, the “Mildly Frail”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-official-guidance-doctors-decide-coronavirus-patients/

EDIT: From a Google search:

1 Very Fit – People who are robust, active, energetic and motivated. These people commonly exercise regularly. They are among the fittest for their age.

2 Well – People who have no active disease symptoms but are less fit than category 1. Often, they exercise or are very active occasionally, e.g. seasonally.

3 Managing Well – People whose medical problems are well controlled, but are not regularly active beyond routine walking.

4 Vulnerable – While not dependent on others for daily help, often symptoms limit activities. A common complaint is being “slowed up”, and/or being tired during the day.

5 Mildly Frail – These people often have more evident slowing, and need help in high order IADLs(finances, transportation, heavy housework, medica-tions). Typically, mild frailty progressively impairs shopping and walking outside alone, meal preparation and housework.

6 Moderately Frail – People need help with all outside activities and with keeping house. Inside, they often have problems with stairs and need help with bathing and might need minimal assistance (cuing, standby) with dressing.

7 Severely Frail – Completely dependent for personal care, from whatever cause (physical or cognitive). Even so, they seem stable and not at high risk of dying (within ~ 6 months).

8 Very Severely Frail – Completely dependent, approaching the end of life. Typically, they could not recover even from a minor illness.

9. Terminally Ill - Approaching the end of life. This category applies to people with a life expectancy <6 months, who are not otherwise evidently frail.

Exactly so. In my parent's generation, people who flouted the rules, cultural norms, or behaved irresponsibly were looked down upon and ostracised. The media loves to portray celebs behaving badly and this is now considered the cultural norm.

Read the modelling study from Imperial which was used in SAGE to change HMG policy. They revised their modelling using the latest ICU admissions from the UK and Europe and after realising that some younger healthy people need intensive care too. Under the previous herd immunity strategy, they calculated the best case scenario for the number of deaths in the UK at 250,000 and 1.1 million in the US. They didn't quantify the worst case scenario, but they said that the working assumption should be orders of magnitude higher.

The actual mortality rate varies from country to country and it's not an inherent characteristic of the disease, a big factor behind it is the state of the healthcare system, if it collapses etc.

Orders? That'd imply 25 million in the UK and 110 million in the USA. I can't in any way see how those sorts of figures could be reached. 2.5 million and 11 million respectively would be at the very top end, I'd have thought, representing a 3.7% death rate in the UK and assuming everybody in the country caught it at exactly the same time.

250,000, on the other hand, sounds entirely reasonable the way we're going.

Agreed, the mortality is a function of disease plus social conditions plus healthcare effectiveness until it becomes saturated or fails. Then the rate is simply disease plus social conditions. Thus, I think there is a tipping point.

According to a former colleague from the Lobby who I talked to last night, HMG's working assumption is now 200k to 300k deaths.

7 my goodness tang doesn’t bode well at all

I really think very soon the government will have to take a harder line 

I really don't think we'll reach these levels, but what do I know! My ignorant guess is tens of thousands and even that could be an overestimation.

It doesn't have the resources to do it.

Tesco in Stockton-on Tees also packed out. Not a single space on the main car park or overflow queues both side of the entrance