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Northern Sky
22 March 2020 20:20:49


My alcohol intake has substantially increased these past 2-3 weeks 



Not been drunk at all, but having 2 and maybe 3 drinks instead of 1.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I'm exactly the same, I'm finding it helps! 


I don't really drink much but these are strange times. 

Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:20:52

Did the 18 year old casualty have any other health problems? I assume so otherwise this would have been bigger news surely. Not that it makes this any less sad, of course.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


BBC website says:


"It comes as the number of UK deaths reached 281, including a person aged 18 with an underlying health condition."

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
22 March 2020 20:21:55


​


Status of COVID-19


As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.




Quote


 The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.


The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.


The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.


Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios. 





https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid


​


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


I'm confused - so nothing to worry about?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:22:50


 


 


I think he was referring to the daft bint that  was intent on going "walkabout" after receiving a Corona virus diagnosis


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


Ah, OK.   


I think she should be detained under the mental health act....


Or given an electronic tag.


 


Incredibly stupid , but we've seen quite a lot of incredibly stupid behaviours in the last week.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gooner
22 March 2020 20:24:33

36 year old Nurse seriously ill in hospital fit and healthy now fighting for her life 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


xioni2
22 March 2020 20:25:35


36 year old Nurse seriously ill in hospital fit and healthy now fighting for her life 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Last I read more than 150 hospital staff have died in Italy from covid.

Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:26:05


 


I'm confused - so nothing to worry about?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


They're saying it fails to meet the criteria because of the relatively low mortality rate.


From their website: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#definition-of-hcid


 


Definition of HCID


In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:



  • acute infectious disease

  • typically has a high case-fatality rate

  • may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment

  • often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly

  • ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings

  • requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


glenogle
22 March 2020 20:28:03


Italy on the other hand, appears to be finally turning the corner, but at what cost? Italy won't have an economy worth the name after this for a long time.


There certainly won't be an early uptick in tourist numbers, even once Italy has the situation finally under control. Same goes for Spain and for France.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I think tourism will rebound very quickly. Especially spain.


If you had same chance of catching the virus here or there, there is no greater danger in going there, plus many of the type that go to spain are the ones who are still going to pubs just now so dont generally pay attention to advice.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Gooner
22 March 2020 20:31:44


 


They're saying it fails to meet the criteria because of the relatively low mortality rate.


From their website: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#definition-of-hcid


 


Definition of HCID


In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:



  • acute infectious disease

  • typically has a high case-fatality rate

  • may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment

  • often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly

  • ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings

  • requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I guess in a population of 60 million even 20,000 deaths is low ( not that it will be 20,000 ) just picked a number 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
22 March 2020 20:33:10


 


I'm confused - so nothing to worry about?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Confused? I'm speechless! So this disease is bringing the UK economy to its knees but it is not "high consequence"? WTF?

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
David M Porter
22 March 2020 20:33:12


 


On this site, we are all weather model followers, so we understand the difference between signal and noise.


So nothing to make of today's reduction in UK deaths, unless it is sustained.


Italy on the other hand, appears to be finally turning the corner, but at what cost? Italy won't have an economy worth the name after this for a long time.


There certainly won't be an early uptick in tourist numbers, even once Italy has the situation finally under control. Same goes for Spain and for France.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I think China will suffer a huge hit too in the long run, especially in view of the fact that it was the country in which this whole sorry episode originated.


Only my opinion, but I think that this episode will end up setting China back decades, as international businesses that are based there could pull out en masse and it sure won't do anything for their tourist industry.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
xioni2
22 March 2020 20:33:40

The headless chicken panic needs to stop.

We should be isolating the elderly, as planned - but among everyone else 50% or more are going to get it if they haven't already got it.
For most the symptoms will be no worse than mild flu.

Even the more extreme lockdown in Italy has barely made a difference so the economy is being crashed for no good reason.
It was too late for them and it's too late for us.
Painful decisions have to be taken, but trying to stop the tsunami won't work - we need to make sure things continue to function or it could get far worse than can be imagined.

Originally Posted by: four 


I am not sure you have thought it through. Leaving aside the point that the concept of herd immunity without vaccination is shaky (it assumes that the virus stays stable, that people won't be re-infected etc.), it would take several months to get 50-60% of the non-vulnerable population infected. Do you really think we could completely isolate all vulnerable people (millions of people!) for several months? Who would police this, the police/army or vigilante neighbours? And what about the minimal contact still required (deliveries, care, medicine etc.)? It's unworkable and very risky.


As for Italy, it has mentioned several times that there is probably a 2-4 week lag between infection and death, so it's too early to say if the lockdown has failed. They are now introducing even stricter measures (non essential factories close down, outdoor exercise banned etc.). Greece is also introducing curfews from tomorrow.

Gooner
22 March 2020 20:34:42


 


Confused? I'm speechless! So this disease is bringing the UK economy to it's knees but it is not "high consequence"? WTF?


Originally Posted by: RobN 


That's really what I was trying to say , seen nothing like it in our lifetime yet its not in the highest bracket 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:38:36


 


I guess in a population of 60 million even 20,000 deaths is low ( not that it will be 20,000 ) just picked a number 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It's not about the number of deaths as such though, is it?  It's purely based on the R0 value, as far as I can see.


The number of deaths is a function of the containment measures put in place and the extent to which they are obeyed - and the capability of the NHS to cope.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


springsunshine
22 March 2020 20:39:51


 


I was thinking of this post during my walk today. We passed by a hotel in the countryside today, the car park was overflowing and it was obvious that the restaurant was full (it's not even a very good restaurant!). If just 1-2 members of staff are carriers, then they would probably have infected several of the customers today and a week or so later a nice cluster would develop in the area and some people (not necessarily customers!) could then die. This is all hypothetical of course, but why take such a risk?


Both the govt and some people still don't get it.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Exactly my thoughts too. Vica versa could also apply in that just one or two customers could have the virus and pass it on unknowingly to the other customers and the staff. I really don`t get this decision and if the govt don`t immedialy shut hotels as well as all retail outlets except food outlets then whats the point in doing things half baked!

John p
22 March 2020 20:40:19


 


They're saying it fails to meet the criteria because of the relatively low mortality rate.


From their website: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#definition-of-hcid


 


Definition of HCID


In the UK, a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) is defined according to the following criteria:



  • acute infectious disease

  • typically has a high case-fatality rate

  • may not have effective prophylaxis or treatment

  • often difficult to recognise and detect rapidly

  • ability to spread in the community and within healthcare settings

  • requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Even though this is probably more of a technical notice, I think it’s reckless of them to publish this now as it just undermines the push to make people take this seriously.

Camberley, Surrey
Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:41:01


 


Confused? I'm speechless! So this disease is bringing the UK economy to its knees but it is not "high consequence"? WTF?


Originally Posted by: RobN 


I think you are misinterpreting what it means.


It's a scientific judgement based on the characteristics of the virus.  It doesn't pretend to look at other aspects or the consequences of the illness.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


glenogle
22 March 2020 20:44:10
But surely the bit that says:-
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

Is enough to class it as hcid? Otherwise why is day to day living being interfered with?
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Gandalf The White
22 March 2020 20:45:48


 


Even though this is probably more of a technical notice, I think it’s reckless of them to publish this now as it just undermines the push to make people take this seriously.


Originally Posted by: John p 


The statement says the initial classification was a provisional one, pending further information.


"The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase."


 


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19


 


I don't think a technical note like this is going to change anyone's behaviour one way or another, to be honest.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


John p
22 March 2020 20:46:00
Wow - McDonalds is closing from tomorrow. Even for drive through and takeaway.

Things just got real for the ‘yoof’.
Camberley, Surrey
Gavin D
22 March 2020 20:46:28

112 new deaths in France that's exactly the same as Saturday


New confirmed cases have fallen by 668 to 1,559


The amount of cases aged under 65 has fallen from 50% yesterday to 35%

SJV
22 March 2020 20:50:38


 


I am not sure you have thought it through. Leaving aside the point that the concept of herd immunity without vaccination is shaky (it assumes that the virus stays stable, that people won't be re-infected etc.), it would take several months to get 50-60% of the non-vulnerable population infected. Do you really think we could completely isolate all vulnerable people (millions of people!) for several months? Who would police this, the police/army or vigilante neighbours? And what about the minimal contact still required (deliveries, care, medicine etc.)? It's unworkable and very risky.


As for Italy, it has mentioned several times that there is probably a 2-4 week lag between infection and death, so it's too early to say if the lockdown has failed. They are now introducing even stricter measures (non essential factories close down, outdoor exercise banned etc.). Greece is also introducing curfews from tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 I'm sure four has posted this opinion multiple times now, and not actually responded to counters. 


That being said, his top comment of panicking needing to stop is right.

xioni2
22 March 2020 20:51:55

In my walk today I saw several people in their early 20s and even quite a few teenagers.


These are truly unprecedented times!

Heavy Weather 2013
22 March 2020 20:52:59


112 new deaths in France that's exactly the same as Saturday


New confirmed cases have fallen by 668 to 1,559


The amount of cases aged under 65 has fallen from 50% yesterday to 35%


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


We have seen some possible positive signs today. Let’s hope and pray some places have turned a corner. I’ll reserve any judgement until we get a few days of sustained improvement.


Id also caveat that a lot of places have seen some drop off today and I wonder if it’s because it’s a Sunday.


I am not trying to put a downer on all this, just don’t want to be lulled into a false sense of security. 

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
SJV
22 March 2020 20:53:00

But surely the bit that says:-
requires an enhanced individual, population and system response to ensure it is managed effectively, efficiently and safely

Is enough to class it as hcid? Otherwise why is day to day living being interfered with?

Originally Posted by: glenogle 


I assume it has to meet all criteria? It provisionally did before more was understood about the virus. Now we know the mortality rate is universally low, one of the criteria is now not met and with good evidence too, meaning it loses its preliminary classification as a HCID.


I agree the timing of this update could be better, but I assume it is not something they'd be allowed to delay.

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