BREAKING : Prince of Wales has tested positive

This was being said a lot but I don't think that the data supported it. There was often an (apart from Italy) disclaimer, the French data was always a week old and the German data not included. Most other countries have much smaller populations so although they were doing fewer tests some were doing more per capita which seems a better comparison to me. I think we were still doing pretty well on that measure but the leading the way in Europe idea wasn't really supported.

Reported by the BBC:

In other developments:

• Iran: President Hassan Rouhani has warned that his government is set to impose tough new measures against the coronavirus. He said they would include restrictions on movement and were likely to be “difficult” for the public. Despite being by far the hardest-hit country in the region, Iran has so far resisted lockdowns. It has reported 2,077 deaths linked to Covid-19 and 27,017 cases, although the actual figures are thought to be far higher.


• Israel: The government has approved new restrictions that will take effect at 17:00 (15:00 GMT). Israeli media reported that people were likely to be required to stay within 100m (330ft) of their homes. Five people have died In israel and another 2,030 have been infected.


• United Arab Emirates: Dubai-based airline Emirates has become the largest international carrier to completely ground its fleet in response to the pandemic. It came after the authorities in the UAE, which has reported 248 confirmed cases and two deaths, closed all its airports

I bet he didn't have to wait long for the test.

For anybody who watches C4’s The Windsors:

’Me first. Then you. BUT ME FIRST’

The local health authority stated he satisfied the conditions for testing.

I wasn’t aware he was a frontline NHS worker but he has got many talents.

He finally got the Corona-tion...

Soon it will become obvious to most that this is the only strategy that works:

--

China’s tough lockdown and social distancing measures in Wuhan and other provinces appear to have successfully ended coronavirus infections and may chart a route back to normal life, according to a report from the University of London’s Imperial College.

The report, from Prof Neil Ferguson and his team who have been the main modellers of the epidemic for the UK and other governments, suggests it is possible to lift the social distancing restrictions, as China has begun to do, without a resurgence of the epidemic.

Prof Chris Donnelly of Imperial and Oxford Universities, one of the team, said:

At this difficult time, these results suggest that, after containment, a carefully managed and monitored relaxation of effective large-scale lockdowns may be possible even before an effective vaccine is available.

Ferguson said their analysis “provides some hope for countries currently in various levels of lockdown that once case numbers are brought to low levels, it might be possible to relax social distancing – provided equal measures to limit the risk of the resurgence of transmission are introduced.”

But, he stressed, relaxing the lockdown policies would depend on “rapid and ubiquitous testing and rigorous case and contact isolation policies”.

That would mean testing everyone with symptoms and following up and isolating their contacts, in order to stamp out any further flare-ups of infection.

I'm genuinely pleased the Prince of Wales managed to get a test and wish him a speedy recovery. To me it illustrates 2 things:

1) There is value in testing (otherwise why bother since he is in lock-down anyway)

2) The UK clearly doesn't have the capacity yet to significantly ramp up testing - the opposition should be hammering away on this to make sure things dramatically improve sooner rather than later

Why are they shocking? They're not exactly unexpected, surely?

From the Telegraph:

"A criminal investigation has been launched in Austria into allegations an initial coronavirus infection was covered up at a ski resort that has since been identified as a major centre of the European outbreak.

Hundreds of infections in Germany, Iceland, Norway and Denmark have been traced back to the resort of Ischgl in the Tyrolean Alps.

Austrian authorities are already facing questions after it emerged the resort was allowed to remain open for a week after the alarm was raised.

But if the claims are true, it appears the outbreak in Ischgl might have been stopped even earlier, after Austrian prosecutors on Tuesday opened an investigation into allegations a suspected infection in the resort was covered up as early as February...."

Does Spain also have a very old population like Italy?

Not sure on that, but remember Spain isn't even 2 weeks post-lockdown yet - so exponential / logarithmic growth is to be expected. As it is for us, of course!

Not as old as Italy I think, but older than ours. They do have many big apartment blocks though esp in Madrid. Their lockdown is <2 weeks old though.

Indeed. Spain doesn't appear on this list:

https://www.prb.org/which-country-has-the-oldest-population/

Therefore we may be close to flushing another hypothesis down the loo. Smoking rates rarely get mentioned now. BMI is still in play it would seem.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true

Italy is 2nd in the (global) list, Spain is 18th and the UK is 26th.

A Danish colleague has just sent me the following (as reported in the Danish media):

"France is not counting Corona deaths in nursing homes - apparently, there are a lot of deaths occurring in French nursing homes, but they are not being recorded as COVID-19 fatalities, unless they were already hospitalised."

No doubt some other countries are doing likewise.

Their paper is attracting a lot of criticism now by many scientists.

That is where my brother caught it

Here is the source of the original story

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-comment-le-ministere-de-la-sante-comptabilise-t-il-les-morts-liees-a-l-epidemie_3882255.html

Based on the number of people we know or know of, the number of celebrities, etc. that have either tested positive or had Covid-19 like symptoms, what proportion of the UK population would you estimate have been infected so far?

My guess is about 1% - 2%. Of my FB friends, 3 out of 222 have almost certainly had it.

I know there are lots and lots of famous people in the UK when you think about it; but I can think of Prince Charles, Linda Lusardi, Fiona Phillips, Idris Elba, Kirsty Allsopp, Nadine Dorries,... there are some sports people as well and probably others I've forgotten.

So that could imply about a million people?

In Greece during the 48 hours of the curfew so far, the police have fined 1,631 people for endangering public health. They are fined 150 euros and if they re-offend the fine rises to 1,500 euros.

267 store owners have been arrested for opening their stores.

Indeed and even in the popular tourist spots you see apartment blocks and shared town houses