Weather still magnificent - let's see what the virus will bring

The list of countries reporting deaths from CV19 continues to expand.

Nicaragua and Ukbekistan the latest

Some figures exposing the stupidity of Trump

USA: Most confirmed cases in the world, 1300 deaths, 6th most deaths at the moment.

The country to his north, Canada: 39 deaths

The country to his south which he has much maligned, Mexico: 8 deaths

Yet he thinks some normality will return by Easter and the disease is well under control and people outside are to blame for this.

He is sending to troops along the Canadian border, assumingly to contain the virus within the USA and stoppng from causing more issues more Canada.......

My wife's sister-in-law, who is German, takes the New European (Ulric's link, abbreviated on my screen) and believes every word in it. For the good of his health, Maunder should  not read it at any time but especially this morning when this same link offers the following headlines to click on:

Brexiteer calls for pubs and restaurants to re-open as 'majority don't care about corona virus'

Pro-Brexit MP says coronavirus shows Tories may have got it wrong over immigration

Coronavirus: Britain should look to France to see real leadership

But I'm pleased that the Brexiteer in the first link (Paul Bullen former UKIP leader on Cambs CC) has disappeared under a Twitterstorm. He tweeted

“Isn’t it about time we stopped this nonsense,” he wrote. “The majority don’t care about Covid-19, don’t care if they catch it and know that it won’t have any adverse effects.

“Do we really want to kill our economy? Let’s get back to work, open our pubs and restaurants and get back to normal.”

Just imagine what would be happening if the Libertarians got what they really want - a minarchy where there are virtually no centrally controlled resources at all except law enforcement and the military. How would a system like that be reacting to the present conditions?

Who is to say that Sweden has got it wrong?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/26/sweden-keeps-schools-borders-open-huge-experiment-virus/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

The human price of the various lock-downs could end up being higher than letting the virus run its course amongst the healthy.

We simply won't know until we can look back retrospectively.

P.S. Who would have anticipated that Sweden would be a model for a laissez faire approach?

South africa reports first deaths(2)

MM let’s wait and see how things pan out in the medium term before assuming they are correct. So many factors to consider in each approach I think

There is the fallacy. Aside from the mortalities amongst all age groups it isn’t possible to let a viral epidemic rip through society and keep the vulnerable cocooned. That would require zero contact between the groups, which everyone knows is impossible.

I am not assuming they are correct, but I think in scientific terms it is good to have a different model to compare to.

Meanwhile, looks as though Priti agreed with me all along - an internal dispute over border controls within the government has emerged into the light of day:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/26/priti-patel-row-boris-johnson-closing-britains-borders-keep/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

"Boris Johnson and Priti Patel were embroiled in a row over closing Britain’s borders as the Prime Minister refused a plea from the Home Secretary to stop flights to the UK.

Ms Patel tried to build a coalition of senior Cabinet ministers to put the case to Downing Street, only for Number 10 to state publicly that there were “no plans” to stop flights from countries blighted by coronavirus, including Iran and the US.

Mr Johnson was angry that Home Office discussions of a border lockdown - disclosed in the Daily Telegraph - had been made public, according to Whitehall sources.

..."

That’s a slightly jarring use of the word ‘control’ in the circumstances.

No, it is purely from a scientific sense of the word.

It’s all pretty irrelevant.

There’s growing support for the case that the virus was already here in December or early January. It was spreading from Wuhan from late November.

Once the virus was circulating, closing the borders can only delay the spread; quite obviously it can’t prevent it. You have only to look at the sh**storm unfolding in the US to see how absolutely futile closing borders really is.

Er, I know, Michael - and I rather assumed that you would know that I know.  It just struck me as interesting that a word conveys two very different meanings and one of them didn’t sit well with what’s happening.

Apologies if it wasn’t clear.

Ah yes, I get you now. 

Yes, the word is indeed an interesting one to use in the current situation.

Latest Imperial College projects (post lockdown) suggest that UK deaths may come in at between 5,000 and 6,000. While that represents a terrible human toll, it would be a far smaller number than many of us were expecting.

Grim..grim.grim today... 

Coronavirus: Lack of testing means NHS staff are infecting patients

Doctors said they were worried about becoming “part of the problem” owing to a lack of testing and a shortage of protective equipment, particularly outside hospitals. Masks, gloves and visors can help stop people infecting others and stop them becoming infected.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-lack-of-testing-means-nhs-staff-are-infecting-patients-fjp8b0pw6

Ventilator crunch looms after snubbing EU action

Britain back of the queue
The European Union’s plan to bulk-buy ventilators, face masks and protection equipment for medical staff involves 26 countries.

Over the past week, 25 EU countries and Norway opened negotiations to purchase supplies using their combined purchasing power to keep prices down. Under the Brexit withdrawal treaty, Britain is eligible to take part but, by staying out, has been pushed to the back of the queue.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ventilator-crunch-looms-after-snubbing-eu-action-6s7tg3vnw

Vaccine

However scientists say Britain risks being at the back of the queue when a vaccine eventually becomes available, because the country lacks production capacity. Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said there was no guarantee that large producers such as China, the US and the EU would reserve supplies for Britain.

“It will be your own people first,” he said. The lack of a British facility was “a national security risk”, he added.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/uk-promises-210m-to-find-coronavirus-vaccine-7883gcq7q

Which would then lead to a chorus of "why did we trash the economy" from the usual knuckle draggers here, and Republicans in the US.

Ignoring the fact that the great result would be because of the lock down measures.

I'm sure I read somewhere recently that it wasn't first discovered in Wuhan until late December (the Xmas/New Year period).

That said, I guess it is possible that people were going down with the symptoms of coronavirus in China some time before the disease was officially diagnosed, as it were. It could have been that it was doing real damage in China and then other countries near to China some time before the authorities there knew what it actually was.

As I've mentioned before, while closing borders many weeks ago would not have stopped it getting into this country (and others) completely, it may have meant that even once it did get here, it may have been somewhat easier to contain than has proved to be the case. That has been my real gripe with the way both HMG, the US government and many across Europe dealt with this crisis in the early weeks.

Yes, and a much quicker peak as well, which is also significant in terms of starting to think about the next phase.

It all assumes that sufficient numbers continue to follow the rules. Thankfully this weekend’s weather should discourage people from thinking of ignoring them.

I would recommend people to watch Question Time, 26/03. I think this is the link:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gpnd/question-time-2020-26032020

Richard Horton is excellent and the other 3 panellists are pretty good too - inc Tory and Labour. The programme is vastly improved because there is no studio audience. 

Horton suggests the lockdown will need to go on for 11 or 12 weeks and be tightened further. He cites Wuhan as evidence and it ties in nicely with what the Chinese Dr in Lombardy was telling the Italians yesterday. Regarding Imperial, Ferguson says their latest modelling shows the virus is slightly MORE transmissible than had been thought and the estimate of its lethality is unchanged. 

I know a number of people who had a bad virus either just before Christmas or just after. It also seems strange that a virus that was around in China from November (and in large numbers in some areas) didn't make it over here through the thousands of people who made the journey in that time. 

Having said that we have been able to chart the spread of the virus from those first cases in York and it has followed an expected development. If the virus was around before Christmas why didn't we see a much faster spread - particularly considering the social gatherings around Christmas. Surely hospitals would've been overwhelmed much earlier given the infectious nature of covid 19?

David, I read some research that tracked it back to early December. When you factor in the incubation period and chance of a mild illness or no illness at all I think that leads to a conclusion that early December is most likely.

I would agree with you if everyone was clearly displaying symptoms but they don’t. That is what makes border controls so difficult - and largely futile