The suggestion is a harder lockdown between now and end of May followed by an alternating period to be determined by how effectively transmission can be slowed.

I think that's right. I believe its accepted that just about everyone is going to get the thing eventually. They key is to slow the rate so that society can continue to function.

I don't believe tighter lock-down provisions will be beneficial but measures do need to be taken to better enforce the ones we have.

Lack of PPE is clearly an issue which should have been addressed months ago, but ventilators are something else. We only need quantities of ventilators because of the pathology of this particular virus - something which cannot be known in advance.

South Korea plans to reopen schools on April 6th so it will be interesting to see the impact of that.

Got a feeling our lock-down will end on 14th June. Let's hope it goes well enough to allow them to relax it!

Listening to Michael Gove we have a good few weeks left of the restrictions we are currently in 

The 2016 exercise specifically identified the low number of ventilators as a problem. Most pandemic viruses are respiratory in nature. 

Gove probably thinks it's the responsibility of the public to provide their own ventilators. It's a problem, but not his problem.

More and more Italians making a point of burning the EU flag on social media, and I wouldn't blame them when you come across stories like this:

https://www.courthousenews.com/italy-hit-with-8-5m-fine-growing-daily-for-ignoring-judgment/

and this:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

To think that Italy has to rely on Russia and China for essential medical supplies when it is supposedly under the protective wing of the EU. 

Indeed. Just been listening to an altercation between a ruffian (who doesn't live there )and our pikey neighbours partner which almost led to a cuffs up. 

Long ago a community police officer told us he could never understand how and why these people moved into the house next to us. "It's a mystery." in what is otherwise a "nice neighbourhood" he said.

The 'letter' they get this week will no doubt be binned immediately. Once they sense a weakness in law enforcement they will be fence hopping all over the place again I fear. And not just me.

Italian pro EU sentiment was always shaky. Could this be enough to push them over into a full blown Itexit?

Yes, I think the EU is also failing in this. When you hear though that American States are trying to outbid each other, you realise how incompetent the West is being. 

There will be a lot of economic arguments in the EU too, Italy & Spain want eurobonds (essentially the sharing/pooling of debt), the Germans and some other richer countries say no. I could see both sides of the argument.

No doubt the UK lacked the number of ventilators which would have been appropriate to have some contingency, but even well provisioned countries find they quickly run out of resources under the assault of this virus. Not only does it cause a "tsunami" of cases requiring ventilation, but the evidence shows that once someone is on a ventilator, they need it for around 3 weeks, which is very unusual - turnaround of resources is as important as initial supply. When planning ahead, it is impossible to anticipate all eventualities - COVID-19 has some very unusual characterstics which have been discussed in depth in these pages - including its shed rate, the multiple ways in which it can be transmitted, its durability on many surfaces and the chronic pneumonia it can cause.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least. The EU is not coming out good on this... or on the whole Corona crisis thing in general. Something is beginning to stink. 

Not sure if people are aware of this site - it is the best for showing where the hot spots are in the UK, based on cases per head of population.

https://www.covidlive.co.uk/

In summary... London (except Barnet), Slough, the West Midlands conurbation, Gwent & Cardiff, Derby, Sheffield, Cumbria, Dumfries & Galloway, Glasgow, Shetland.

The least affected places are Hull, the Western Isles and the Orkney Isles.

It makes me think whether or not we may see a restructuring of the world order after the virus? I don't think we'll see a complete overhaul, but we could definitely see changes along the lines of a turn away from neo-liberalism or a resurgence of the nation state.

Without the crutch of capitalist neoliberalism, it seems that both the EU and the US are beginning to buckle. 

We are going to see who the real socialists are in the new coming age, and just who are the empty, vacuous status signallers. 

The issue will be forced at last and that is a good thing. The EU will either have to issue corona bonds (or whatever they may be called) or it will cease to exist in its present form. The can has been kicked down the road for a number of years - a good thing IMO because it gives everyone plenty of time to think - but now a decision must be made. After WW2 new structures were needed to rebuild economies and this could well be the case now even though the damage is "virtual" rather than "physical".  

The majority of us are following current guidelines, in which case those who aren’t are posing us no danger.  And to be brutal, I think those who aren’t, deserve all they get.

Ocado delivered last night - I think that's the last delivery I'll be able to get though as  a quick punt on their site shows no spare slots.

Disinfected  everything I could with 70% IPA / 30% water mix - fortunately I've got circa 1/2 Gallon of IPA 99% that I  normally use for cleaning flux  off PCB's.  Delivered my parent's  portion  of the order round this morning maintaining strict 2M distance. Fortunately  they seem to be taking it all very seriously.  Gave the hound a decent  stretch out.  Dad walks him up and down  the lane outside  but Springers need a bit more than that IMHO.  - so that's my exercise   done for the day as well. 

Met a chap and a couple when walking the dog.  Both lots scrupulously applying social distancing.  Dog is well trained and generally does as he's told, but there is always a slight risk with  "Springer exuberance" that he won't be able to resit running up to people and greeting them with his tail flaying around and ears half way down his neck.  At the current time he is always put on a lead as soon as anyone comes into view - pulling him, away from people who don't like dogs might break the 2M rule.

Folks are OK, but worried - mainly for the wider family.  My cousin's other half was carted to hospital after his Corvid became pneumonia.  He was released again with lots of meds becuase my cousin is a nurse and can monitor his condition properly and get him carted  in  again  quickly if need be.  James is early 60s  with (AFAIK) no underlying health conditions but he does smoke and always has done so.

He is the 2nd person I know that has developed symptoms that  are far from "mild"   with this wretched thing ! 

I think the penalty for  continuing  to eat "wildlife meals"  should be draconian - I'm not generally in favour of the death penalty but I could be persuaded to make this an  exception  given the  Millions world wide that are going to be killed by this.  The only way to stop  the markets and all the other crap associated  with daft medieval medicine  and  "wildlife meals" is to kill the demand !

I really don't understand why you think there's a problem with the EU in either story. The first, as the article says, relates to a very old issue around illegal state aid. Are you suggesting that all legal processes should stop during the pandemic?

The second is a complete non-story. It cites an example of where cooperation worked perfectly then flags that other European countries haven't rushed to assist Italy - which is not remotely surprising given that every European country is in pretty much the same postion. You can hardly expect someone to hand over protective equipment, medicines and respirators when there's every likelihood of them being needed in their own country. Plus, there has been some cooperation, with patients being moved across borders.

I didn't expect you to indulge in a bout of EU bashing given there are rather more important issues about which to be concerned.

Their refusal to assist Greece in any meaningful way after the Anti-Christ Erdogan decided to throw thousands of already dejected refugees onto the Greek border recently will also not be forgotten. 

Was up at 5am again to take my Run in nautical twilight. Torch was necessary this time, but only one dogwalker so that's an improvement.