Great stuff. Hope you'll be able to wfh.

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

Interesting reading (and related to a conversation held earlier in the thread). 

The scientific consensus so far is that isn’t necessarily correct to describe the virus as “airborne”.

Good on you. Make sure you stay stafe.

x

Could you explain why border lock down will make any difference now?

None of the stats from anywhere are accurate and certainly can't be compared side by side. They are about as useful as a ten day GFS chart for snow!

They thought they'd concentrate on what they are best at?

It wouldn't! The time to close your borders is before you get mass community spread.

You can also close your borders if you get on top of the epidemic and have it truly contained (as in South Korea).

But if intend to contain it nationally, then the only way to keep on top of it, is via stringent border controls.

It’s MM’s cockroach: you can keep explaining that it would never work and is irrelevant and yet the idea keeps crawling back.

We needed the borders shut completely before Christmas. That was never ever a possibility.

It had moved out beyond Wuhan last year. Why do you keep pushing an idea that’s clearly wrong? 

Explain to me therefore, exactly why South Korea, China, New Zealand, Australia and many other countries have now locked down their borders?

Border controls are just another form of easily policed social distancing.

Of course border controls inhibit the spread of a virus, since the virus is carried by people.

Authorities have to accept the logic of that position therefore - if you wish to relax internal controls, your simply have to enforce your external border controls.

Usual caveats with modelling, but the Italians expect to have stopped the contagion (~zero new infections) in mid-May. 

But you are wrong Gandalf - 100% wrong on this topic.

It is about numbers. If a relatively small number of people are coming in, you can monitor and quarantine them. If masses of people are travelling in and out, that renders it impossible.

Once you have an outbreak, you can go mad on controlling it as they did in South Korea - but having done that, you need the stringent border controls to keep it contained.

Until there is a level of herd immunity or a proper vaccine is available, you have to decide whether you want to control the spread and border controls are a major part of that (for big countries like China or the USA, you might also need internal border controls too).

Just a reminder it's 'the big jump day' today. So don't be suprised to see a large lurch upwards.

JFF model (accounting for #3dayperiodicity) is going for 3963 cases today but only 3445 tommorow.

Probably zero new cases today then.

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Coronavirus: Early signs outbreak 'slowing' in UK, says Imperial College professor

Quote

 

The coronavirus outbreak in the UK appears to be "slowing", a leading scientist and government adviser has said. Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said there were "early signs" social distancing measures had started reducing the spread of COVID-19. "In the UK we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators - less so deaths because deaths are lagged by a long time from when measures come in force," he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

"But if we look at the numbers of new hospital admissions, that does appear to be slowing down a bit now. "It has not yet plateaued, so still the numbers can be increasing each day but the rate of that increase has slowed." Professor Ferguson said the rate of infections varied in different parts of the country. "It is quite clear across the country, the epidemic is in different stages in different parts of the country," he said.

"In central London it could be as many as 3% to 5% of the population has been infected - maybe more in individual hot spots. In the country as a whole in the UK, maybe 2% or 3%." He added that he hoped antibody tests would be available in "days rather than weeks".

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-early-signs-outbreak-slowing-in-uk-says-imperial-college-professor-11965624

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Listened to that - he made an interesting case, but he would not be held accountable for the results.

He was right about Derbyshire police however - some police action has been disproportionate.

Sorry, it is you that is 100% wrong.  You haven't bothered to consider the practical aspects of this.

Fact: the virus was in Wuhan by early December and some sources suggest November 

Fact: people were arriving in and leaving Wuhan throughout December, travelling widely to many other countries

Fact: people are contagious whilst still showing no symptoms and some never have clear symptoms

Fact: given the above three facts it is impossible to prevent the virus reaching the UK

I thought his key message was that everyone is capable of making their own judgment about what is appropriate.  I have to say the evidence here and elsewhere suggests that is a highly questionable assumption, given the hysterical comments that abound.

Re. Lord Sumption’s comments and to paraphrase the words of the Ghanaian President, we know how to bring the economy back to life what we don’t know is how to bring people back to life.

Dominic cummings has it.

I suspect he would be in the higher risk group given he has comorbidities of some type.

Only 7 days ?

If you're on your own, it's 7 days. Perhaps he's ditched the toothpaste-squeezer?