Downing Street: 2,000 of 500,000 frontline NHS England staff have been tested for coronavirus

At the daily No 10 briefing of lobby journalists, Downing Street said just 2,000 people out of 500,000 frontline NHS England staff have been tested for coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/01/uk-coronavirus-live-nhs-testing-covid-19-updates-latest

JFF model going for 3257 confirmed new cases today.

As I try to understand this more, the measures should stay in place until we have enough testing capability to tackle this invisible enemy, it's our only asset until a vaccine is found.

There's no point relaxing restrictions until we have enough testing, but at the same time when we have we should try to return to as much normality as we can. As already mentioned a weaker economy puts pressure on the NHS, and everything else.

I'm going for 280 to 320 deaths. The UK stats are very odd.

I was just thinking, not sure what scientific updates are on immunity, but non-pathogenic post-recovery patents, if they are immune and no longer presenting in any form, and fit and well enough, could be set safely to any task, including taking food to people with minimal risk.

Flusurvey.
Posters may recall me mentioning Flusurvey a few times on the Forum. This is an on-line weekly questionnaire managed and monitored by Public Health England (PHE) designed to monitor trends of infectious diseases in the community. This week's questionnaire says they have had a good response to their recent call and now have over 10,000 registered participants, but more would be welcome. I know some of you have signed up already - so many thanks for doing that. The focus of the survey, "Influenza-like illnesses", has been adapted and includes COVID-19 symptoms - so participants are playing an active part in that research. Anyone can register and help. It's easy - I've been doing in for some years now - it only takes a few minutes a week and the initial registration is straightforward. If you are not yet contributing I commend it to you as a really handy way of "doing our bit". I would encourage everyone to register and contribute as [unsurprisingly] they need data from healthy as well as infected participants. You don't have to be ill!
Roger

https://flusurvey.net/

 I did not know he was normal in the first place so some good news.

Exactly. viruses only care about surviving, mutating is always to a weaker form to kill less hosts

8630 tests were carried out yesterday. 

The Tory party is at 55% in the polls

Boris could post jiffy bags of his own faeces to every household in the country and the morons would still vote for him

I’m sure viruses don’t care about anything. It’s all about random mutations, if they mutate into a form that wipes out all the hosts then it will die out fairly rapidly*, if they mutate into a strain that transmits more efficiently then that strain will dominate. 

*unless it kills them in a sci-fi-friendly way that spreads the disease effectively, such as making them explode and spread virus particles everywhere, for instance...

The stats are grim today:

4,324 New Cases

563 New Deaths

Ouch!

So still not up to 10,000.

What disgusting liars.

Hmm I wonder if the three day periodicity has gone out of phase. Kinda feels like it.

Tommorow was supposed to be the big jump day, not today.

If we get a drop tommorow then it will have gone out of phase for some reason.

Agreed, they have tried to change the narrative by saying they have the capacity to conduct that many tests. However they have forgotten that they said 10K WOULD be tested.

Lets hope tomorrow isn’t the big jump day. 
This probably puts us more onto an Italy type curve again. 

Here you go again. I am pretty certain that it is out of the hands of Matthew Hancock or any other government official to mandate 10K or 25K tests.

There certainly needs to be more clarity about the reasons however.

Meanwhile - Israel having big problems with its more religious fruitcakes:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/israeli-police-raid-synagogues-to-enforce-coronavirus-lockdown-q5xrgncqn

"Israeli police wearing masks raided synagogues in Jerusalem and other ultra-Orthodox areas yesterday which have flouted social distancing rules and become coronavirus hotspots.

...

According to analysis carried out by the Israeli health ministry, 24 per cent of confirmed Covid-19 patients were infected in a synagogue, more than in shops or restaurants."

Here is the model without 3 day periodicity incoperated:

Here it is with the periodicity incoperated.

The first does okay. The 2nd is well off the mark. But you will see we missed a big jump day 3 days ago.

All I'm saying is that before we panic, we should wait for another few days to see what has happened to this 3 day periodicity. Why did we miss a big jump day? Is this the big jump day we missed?

Jeez. Speechless at that.

If it has gone out of phase, I'll artificially push it back in phase again in the model.

It does seem to be a bit of a coincidence that we missed a big jump day and now we are getting one a day early.

Coronavirus: Donald Trumps claims UK's initial strategy before lockdown was 'catastrophic'

Speaking at a press conference, Mr Trump criticised the so-called ‘herd immunity’ approach initially adopted by Boris Johnson. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-uk-news-latest-deaths-tests-flights-nhs-ventilators/

That 3-day thing was, IMO, just a statistical quirk - like tossing a coin 4 times and getting 4 heads in a row.

As we're still ascending the bell curve, we have at least a week left of general death increases, IMO.

Think of it in terms of the old Soviet Union and their mythical tractor production figures - the problem is with centralised planning and an unresponsive system - the Commissar says "we will produce 10,000 tractors", but the system only manages to churn out 500 - does not mean the Commissar did not want 10,000 tractors made, but that the system was incapable of doing it. The NHS is a rubbish system for implementing central directives as we have discussed.