Hi Gavin, thanks for providing these updates.

Where do you get this information from and is anyone collating the day to day data, ie do we know how many deaths actually occurred on, say, March 31st now?

Probably an underlying health condition. Varicose veins?

As I, and at least a couple of others have cottoned on to, that would be (if true) exceeding the total for covid under lockdown. It wouldn't exceed the projected death toll with no lockdown.

The authorities are onto a hiding to nothing with the nation's idiots.

Loads of people die: "WhY didn'T yoU do NuffInk?"

Not many people die: "iT was A Big FusS abOut NuFFink"

I’ve just blown my top, out in the street. Shouted at strangers. 

My partner and I were going for our daily walk, this time to Platt Fields park in south Manchester. Being as careful as we possibly can be, as we are always are. 

We were on a particularly narrow bit of pavement, with railings separating it from the road. Three students approached, three abreast, literally a whisker away from the two of us, who are walking single file. 

In the heat of the moment I think all I said was “move out of the way please”, or “you should be further away”, but they didn’t give a toss. They just laughed. 

We need to know more. If true it would suggest we need to do what China "apparently" has and get rid of the virus completely. So even tighter lockdowns and countries isolating themselves completely. Very difficult to imagine it happening. 

JFF model predictions for today.
Assuming 11157 people tested:

Projected 4026 confirmed cases. This is also projected to be the last time we exceed 4000 confirmed cases in a single day.

Although with 3 day periodicity seemingly back it would not be unsuprising to get there tommorow since that is the big jump day.

But definitely on a downward slope now.

If/when the lockdown is eased I will have to factor that into the model. I will probably introduce a new parameter that can allow B (the flattening parameter) to change as a result of a single force.

That data is widely across the media today.

They've suddenly woken up to the fact not all deaths are in the 24hr period something we've known for the last 3 weeks.

It was, but not in New York. The article specifically looks at New York.

Yes you’re right, Seattle is the biggest city in Washington state. :)

It was Seattle, Washington State, confirmed on jan 20th

IMHO, the very least that China owes the many countries affected by Covid-19 is a great deal of financial compensation for loss of human life first and foremost, plus the inevitable loss of god knows how many jobs and many businesses almost certainly going to the wall.

Sure, money won't bring back all those who have lost their life to this disease, but it would be better than nothing.

This fits in with what some of us have been saying:

Coronavirus: Google data suggests park visits rose on weekend

..

There was also an increase in use of transport hubs and food stores.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52243088

And we have heard nothing from them either. I think the world as a whole should unite against China if they do not go a long way in rectifying things financially. In the first instance however, they should be beside themselves on the death they have unleashed on the world. They tried to cover up they had something terrible and out of control their end. They are responsible. They should and will be held accountable. More success will happen if the world unites on this.

There is now a separate option which might be a better place to vent your feelings?

Hi John, I hadn't seen the thread discussing China until after I read your post above. However if you are referring to that thread then I will make any comments about China itself and their role in this crisis in there from now on.

Two things worthy of mention.

First, from China, some good news - it looks like they're reviewing what's classed as edible meat. They're starting by removing dogs from the list - hopefully they'll continue, but for now at least they're doing something. The Tele article illustrates the piece with a photo showing someone with their (pet) dog standing at a stall selling (dead, hanging) dogs.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/chinas-ministry-agriculture-declares-dogs-pets-not-eating-landmark

"China has moved towards a full ban on eating dogs by stating they should not be regarded as livestock for human consumption.
In a move that will be welcomed by animal welfare campaigners the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has revised a list of livestock animals which can be traded for meat.
China temporarily restricted wildlife trading and consumption in February, in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak thought to have originated in ‘wet’ markets where live animals are sold alongside slaughtered meat.
The Ministry of Agriculture explicitly signalled a move towards a permanent ban on the sale of dog meat in a draft document published on Wednesday and open to public consultation until May 8.
"With the progress of human civilisation and the public's concern and preference for animal protection, dogs have changed from traditional domestic animals to companion animals," the document stated."

Secondly, Cambridge University research suggests there are now three main strains of the virus, with the third variant not being seen in China.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/10/uks-coronavirus-epidemic-may-have-seeded-outside-china-new-study/

Using ‘phylogenetic’ techniques that are usually reserved for tracing the origins of our early human ancestors, researchers at Cambridge University discovered that there have been three distinct variants of coronavirus since the disease emerged in Wuhan in December.
Dubbed A, B and C, the three types have followed different paths throughout the globe, possibly because they have mutated to be better at infecting specific populations
Variant ‘A’ is the ancestral strain and is most closely related to the coronavirus found in bats and pangolins. Scientists believe the disease jumped into humans from one of the creatures at Wuhan Market.
The second type ‘B’ - which is most common in mainland China - is derived from ‘A’, and separated by two mutations, while ‘C’ is in turn a ‘daughter’ of ‘B’.
But interestingly it is type ‘C’ that initially infected Britain and Europe and that variant is not found in mainland China at all.

There will inevitably be overlaps between both threads, but I hope some of the more general observations moved there will make for better continuity in the running daily thread.

Surely it's the "insanitary"  way the markets are arranged and the source of the meat  rather than  the specific animals that they  deal with ?   There needs to   be control of how things are farmed  and an outright ban on  dealing uncontrolled stuff that crawls around in the  bush / jungle.

Perhaps that does explain why their death toll was only 3000 and they were able to contain it so easily

Perhaps C is more infectious?

If this thing has already mutated so quickly, we are in trouble

Smallpox was considered the "perfect" virus yet did not mutate so a single vaccine worked eventually to eradicate it

My thoughts as well. 

Some cultures view certain animals as "pets" and others as "meat". It doesn't matter what the animal is, its the process of meat production that's important

Although DC does now seem to be a hotspot. One of the poorest parts of the country (when you get out of the tourist bits) with a very high black population

A further 249 patients have died in London. The deaths were between March 2nd and April 9th they were all announced today.

• Royal Free London NHS Trust - 29 deaths (between 27/3 and 9/4)


• London North West University Healthcare Trust - 24 deaths (between 2/4 and 9/4)


• Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust - 20 deaths (between 5/3 and 4/4)


• Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust - 19 deaths (between 1/4 and 9/4)


• King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust- 17 deaths (between 5/4 and 9/4)


• Whittington Health NHS Trust - 15 deaths (between 3/4 and 8/4)


• Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust - 15 deaths (between 31/3 and 8/4)


• Barts Health NHS Trust - 14 deaths (between 4/4 and 9/4)


• Croydon Health Services NHS Trust - 14 deaths (between 7/4 and 9/4)


• Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust - 12 deaths (between 31/3 and 7/4)


• The Hillingdon Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 11 deaths (between 2/3 and 9/4)


• North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust - 10 deaths (between 3/4 and 8/4)


• Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust - 9 deaths (between 8/4 and 9/4)


• Homerton University Hospital Foundation Trust - 9 death (between 8/4 and 9/4)


• Imperial College Healthcare Trust - 9 deaths (between 4/4 and 8/4)


• Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Hospital - 7 deaths (between 7/4 and 9/4)


• St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 6 deaths (between 6/4 and 7/4)


• East London NHS Foundation Trust - 2 deaths (4/4 and 5/4)


• University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 2 deaths (8/4 and 9/4)


• North East London NHS Foundation Trust - 2 deaths (3/4 and 8/4)


• Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust - 1 death (9/4)


• Royal Hospital for Neuro-Disability - 1 death (8/4)


• The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust: 1 death (9/4)