Thought I kick of the day with an article.

Those eleven fateful days..

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/04/eleven-days-may-have-tragically-cost-uk-fight-against-coronavirus

 (Just corrected the spelling in the title - DEW)

On the same theme as Mark's post above I think it's worth flagging up this article from March 14th. By then the evidence from Italy was crystal clear but of course it "couldn't happen here". It seems that our current mess (and the likelihood that the number of deaths is much higher due to the care home debacle) was in part due to early failures.

Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

Architects of the UK's nuanced approach: Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty 

More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

In an open letter, the 229 specialists in disciplines ranging from mathematics to genetics - though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases - say the UK's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

The "Nightingale" hospitals provide the additional ICU beds we need?

And another thing. When a patient is transferred to a Nightingale from a conventional hospital, the referring trust is required to supply staff to look after the patient and to supply relevant equipment. Which depletes the resources of the hospital thinking of making the...

— Robert Peston (@Peston) April 16, 2020

If Preston is correct then that’s daft.

Iam beginning to think the only way to absolutely squash the spread of this virus in the uk is go for a total 100% lockdown for say 4 weeks.Shut all the airports,seaports,channel tunnel,all shops and the supermarkets to close,all public and private transport to stop,petrol stations closed and no one allowed out of their homes for ANY reason whatsoever! Except for  medical professionals that work in hospitals.Food delivered as per govt rations by the military,firebrigade,police as they did in China.

That should see new infections and hospital addmissions reduced to a tiny number and ultimately be much safer to begin gradually returning to normal afterwards.

The present restrictions/lockdown is pointless and not going to cut it and imo are not effective,everything might just as well carry on as normal.

I've been saying this since day 1.

IMO we need to get infections down to a level where we can trace and contain.

I think that there is merit in this. Short term pain for maximum gain. Our lockdown currently is too soft. Yes the daily briefings keep banging on about how infections have levelled off - but we still seeing 4-5k a day. It’s certainly not plummeting. Road travel is still at 40%!

I heard on the radio that doctors were being put under pressure not to record the deaths as COVID-19 related if it was possible to put it down as something else. I don’t know how much truth is in that but I could imagine it happening.

If true it would be pointless because you can’t conceal the number of excess deaths occurring.

But if true whoever suggested it should be sacked.

What I have read suggests that it is acceptable to put down pneumonia as a cause of death (which it frequently is with Covid-19) rather than stating the cause of death being Covid-19. I suspect even if Covid-19 was not stated as the cause of death it would be mentioned elsewhere on the certificate. 

What can be done and is being done is looking at the national statistics and seeing the “excess deaths” levels due to pneumonia etc to give a more accurate picture. 

But quite typical of this government.

Wait until it's too late, provide 20% of what is required and then claim you've solved it.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/17/the-coronavirus-crisis-boris-johnson-said-superman-brexit-britain-would-take-advantage-of-the-pandemic-and-go-its-own-way-seven-weeks-before-lockdown/

I've been baffled by these new hospitals from the start.

Yes you can find some big sheds and fill them with cubicles and beds in a matter of weeks, but where can you get the trained medical staff to operate these things from? We know that there were hundreds or maybe thousands of unfilled nursing staff posts even before the crisis.

Maybe the army have doctors and nurses sitting around doing nothing? Maybe more charter flights from Romania - or more likely the Philippines?

The problem is that we can’t magic up medical staff but what we can do is not run out of ICU beds and facilities. While not having enough staff for a satisfactory ration in ICU is to put it mildly far from ideal, not having the ICU beds and equipment for a patient in need of intensive care, ventilation etc is far far worse. The alternative was to simply not build the facilities and potentially run out of ICU beds. They are two different issues. A decreased ratio of staff to patients is better than no ICU facilities.

The best answer of course is having them fully staffed!

There is something particularly reprehensible about cooking the books, Gandalf. It's not the same as a difference in perception or perspective or a choice between opinions. It's a betrayal of the aim to get as truthful an understanding as possible. This is the history that has made it difficult to trust what some countries say, or some organisations and individuals for that matter. For example, apparent obfuscation over the supply of PPE has raised issues of trust across the government's wider efforts to deal with CO-19 when honesty and candour would have served perfectly adequately. Recognition of honest errors and changes of view are the bread and butter of science, but political doublespeak is quite another matter. As has been said before: "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

However, as you have pointed out elsewhere, it is the differential between anticipated and actual death records that shows the trend more clearly.

Roger

And once we end this lockdown of yours the virus will return again. We are are not North Korea, we are an open country that trades with the rest of the planet. The current lockdown is working and we will be able to gradually ease the restrictions over the coming weeks just like our European neighbours.

Who is putting them under pressure?

Here's the official guidance.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

It looks like it the only way!

And of course strict hygiene measures will be required when handling delivered products, food, etc., like one would handle raw chicken, & ensure that they're properly cooked, & washing hands!

If Peston is correct then the strong suspicion is that the whole Nightingale Hospital project is primarily a PR stunt for the benefit of Bozo and the New Brexit Party.

Like the Spain, Germany, Netherlands and Italy PR stunts?

​

Revealed: The UK’s “Three Stage” Exit Strategy To Ease The Coronavirus Lockdown

Quote

 

Ministers and government scientists are drawing up what they hope will be a “three stage” approach to easing the coronavirus lockdown restrictions in the UK in phases between May and July, sources with direct knowledge of the plan told BuzzFeed News. The strategy will depend heavily on significant improvements in infection rate data over the next three weeks, Britain dramatically increasing its testing and contact tracing capacity, tens of millions of people downloading a new NHS app, the efficacy of antiviral drugs at reducing symptoms of COVID-19, and strict measures remaining in place for elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is found.

As ministers publicly remained tight-lipped about a so-called “exit strategy” for lockdown — and some in cabinet complained that they were being kept out of the loop on Downing Street’s plans — BuzzFeed News can reveal: A “best case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain non-essential shops and industries in the short-term, from early to mid-May.

Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium-term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of the summer. Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean the public being told they face limits on seeing over-70s parents or grandparents for as long as 12-18 months until a vaccine is found.

The first stage, in what one minister said was a “best case scenario”, would begin with schools and some businesses reopening in early to mid-May in order to get the economy moving again. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is determined to allow non-essential retail shops to reopen as soon as possible, as well as warehouses for businesses such as Next, which closed its operations last month.

The Treasury also wants to let as much of the manufacturing and construction industries get back to work as possible, while encouraging proper hygiene and social distancing in the workplace. People would be allowed out of their homes for non-essential shopping in this scenario, but most social distancing measures would remain in place. Some ministers are lobbying Downing Street to partially relax some other of the harshest rules in this first stage, such as those stopping people from sitting in parks or taking more than one form of exercise a day.

Commuters could be encouraged to wear masks on public transport, if a review of scientific advice that is currently taking place finds them to be effective at preventing the spread of the disease.

The second stage would see more businesses reopening and further social distancing measures lifted, with ministers hoping this can start to take place by the end of May or beginning of June. This would mean most people returning to work and small gatherings being permitted. Later on in the summer, the government hopes to be able to open pubs and restaurants. SAGE scientists are also looking at lifting restrictions by age, raising the prospect that people under a certain age threshold could be able to go back to their offices sooner, organise social gatherings or go to the pub, but those above the limit cannot.

The third stage is the long-term final “exit” from the coronavirus crisis, when it is defeated once and for all and life returns to normal for the whole nation.

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-three-stage-exit-plan

​

But you have absolutely no idea if our European neighbours have it right  , lets just wait and see shall we 

The plebs love the Tories and I don't understand why. Feck the lot of em!

Seems like a concerted push by the media to push HMG toward their narrative. Hence creating a new story or as happened on Breakfast this morning when a Doctor was asked about PPE that they had enough for now to be cut short and the interview terminated. Because it wasn’t the narrative the reporter wanted to follow. I am sick and tired of the media in this country creating or over inflating issues.

It is the media’s job to question, it is not their job to undermine or to cajole the readership into what the media wants to push.

We have reporters now that are personalities with egos bigger than film stars who jump on every snippet of information be it correct or wrong to inflate their viewership or readership. This is wrong on so many levels.

Reporting is the the collating of facts and reporting on that and questioning the story behind the facts. It is not getting up that morning, thinking of a good story and then running around to find people that will back that story up.

Yes, this would work as it did in Wuhan, but in our libertarian culture such restrictions would not be tolerated. What would people do without their Amazon deliveries?

Besides, until an effective vaccine is distributed, the virus will just return once lockdown is lifted and foreign travel begins again

Because there is nothing else happening in the world, every detail is inflated and discussed at length because there is nothing else to do and we are all stuck at home getting bored

I would like to see more media attention of whats happening around the world. There was a report yesterday from Ecuador about a huge number of excess deaths even though the official death toll in very small