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John p
20 April 2020 13:16:44

The 429 patients who died in England were aged between 40 and 101 years old.

15 of the 429 patients aged between 49 and 92 years old had no known underlying health conditions when they tested positive for Covid-19

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Even accounting for the weekend lag, certainly does seem to be a downward trend now 👍

Camberley, Surrey
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 April 2020 13:18:34

Dare I say that the combined UK total (excluding NI) should be considered "encouraging" if this trend continues throughout the week.


Obviously still tragic for the many people who've once again lost their loved ones.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Gavin D
20 April 2020 13:18:38
Data from Northern Ireland is delayed which means the full UK data won't be released until later this afternoon.
Maunder Minimum
20 April 2020 13:22:18


Dare I say that the combined UK total (excluding NI) should be considered "encouraging" if this trend continues throughout the week.


Obviously still tragic for the many people who've once again lost their loved ones.


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


The fatality rate is not predictive, it is a reflection of measures in force three to four weeks ago - it is only significant emotionally, but has zero statistical relevance as to whether government measures are working at the moment. The only statistic we should concentrate on is the rate of new hospital admissions on account of COVID-19 - that is the one which shows whether the current lockdown is operating as intended.


 

New world order coming.
Gavin D
20 April 2020 13:22:50

Breakdown of the 429 new deaths in England by date



  • 85 on April 19th

  • 210 on April 18th

  • 53 on April 17th

  • 77 between April 1st and April 16th

  • 4 in March

Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 13:30:32


 


Tbh most big accidents are forseeable and avoidable. Chernobyl and Fukishima both come to mind!


If we ever wipe ourselves out, I suspect it will be by accident. Like if there is a nuclear war that makes humanity go extinct, I wouldn't be suprised if its started by accident. After all nuclear wars have nearly been started by accident before!


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


We're getting off topic but Chernobyl was a toxic mixture of wilful stupidity, ignoring procedures and that human factor, in this case an arrogant, bullying manager who thought he knew best.


Familiarity breeds contempt.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


SJV
20 April 2020 13:31:26




This is misleading though because a large part of Sweden is not inhabited at all e.g. Tundra/forest.
The inhabited areas are not that different to parts of the UK outside of main built up areas.


Originally Posted by: four 


Despite the lack of lockdown legislation in place, the population has been cautious and compliant...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective


"More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.


And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.


Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.


“We don’t have a radically different view,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. “The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.”


 


 


 

westv
20 April 2020 13:32:21


 


We're getting off topic but Chernobyl was a toxic mixture of wilful stupidity, ignoring procedures and that human factor, in this case an arrogant, bullying manager who thought he knew best.


Familiarity breeds contempt.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Did anybody else see the tv series?

At least it will be mild!
fairweather
20 April 2020 13:36:03


 


But we know that the virus probably didn't originate in the wet market. A significant number of cases (I think 80%) came from there but recent evidence suggests patient 0 did not. And indeed staff from the lab visit the wetmarket too. The other thing to bear in mind is that the Wuhan facility is the highest level bio facility in China and was literally within a mile radius of the first cases. And if China wanted an excuse the wet market becomes the obvious choice.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


So you think then that nerve agent in Salisbury might have come from Porton Down Lab then because that was very near that incident? I would say the amount of evidence is about equal.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 13:39:00


 


The fatality rate is not predictive, it is a reflection of measures in force three to four weeks ago - it is only significant emotionally, but has zero statistical relevance as to whether government measures are working at the moment. The only statistic we should concentrate on is the rate of new hospital admissions on account of COVID-19 - that is the one which shows whether the current lockdown is operating as intended.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Well, on that basis the rate of hospital admissions isn't 'predictive' either: It's indicative of the impact of the measures that were put in place.


The trend of deaths really is just as 'indicative' as hospital admissions but it's got a much bigger lag, that's all.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
20 April 2020 13:39:00


 


Whether this virus was created in a lab or not doesn't alter the fact that when you look at the evidence it is entirely possible - and importantly probable - that it is only a matter of time before a virus does escape from a lab to cause a major incident. 


We should be taking lessons from the devastating consequences of this virus and make sure biotech regulation is massively increased.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


 ... and in the live food markets and the intensive pig and poultry farming in the West.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 13:41:21


 


 ... and in the live food markets and the intensive pig and poultry farming in the West.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Intensive farming is a function of a growing global population and increasing meat consumption and it isn't limited to the West, AFAIK.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


fairweather
20 April 2020 13:43:07


 


Haha. Could drive tractors across the two bridges, that would stop em! There are a number of Independence councillor's on the Island. Trouble is we come under the wider Castle Point council who are conservative. It's been a bone of contention our Island receives less because of the conservative majority and bias.


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Yes, same in Basildon though, if you're not in a posh part like Billericay then.........

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
20 April 2020 13:44:20


 


Did anybody else see the tv series?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, but I read a very detailed account some years back which set out what happened and why/how.


It's a classic example of how a major failure can result from multiple tiny mistakes/errors, none of which individually are particularly serious.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Bugglesgate
20 April 2020 13:44:32


 


So you think then that nerve agent in Salisbury might have come from Porton Down Lab then because that was very near that incident? I would say the amount of evidence is about equal.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


I'm afraid I also have my suspicions about this facility.  It's a  bit   too coincidental that a facility that specifically researches bat virus is so close to the epicentre of the origin.   Also, it appears a key scientist has "gone missing"- maybe patient zero ?


To be clear, no way do I think this release was international,  or that the virus is anyway "engineered" - it contains mainly bat DNA so is highly likely to be natural.  What I am not discounting is sloppy bio containment of a sample.

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
fairweather
20 April 2020 13:49:50


 


The fatality rate is not predictive, it is a reflection of measures in force three to four weeks ago - it is only significant emotionally, but has zero statistical relevance as to whether government measures are working at the moment. The only statistic we should concentrate on is the rate of new hospital admissions on account of COVID-19 - that is the one which shows whether the current lockdown is operating as intended.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Well that isn't strictly true. In fact deaths are the most accurate statistic because it is not dependent on who and when somebody was tested. It's recorded as a legal document. It is reflective but it is now reflective of people who would have entered hospital after the lockdown so the fall if sustained, is very significant in showing it is working if the proportion of deaths to admissions is roughly a constant.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 13:51:51


 


Did anybody else see the tv series?


Originally Posted by: westv 


Yes, one of the best things I've seen on tv for years

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 13:54:54

This is not a parody, a real American


 



"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 April 2020 13:58:08

I've come to terms with pub no opening for a long time, but I think we can safely allow normal shops and restaurants to re-open on May 7


Also Garden centres. Seems unfair to allow supermarkets to sell flowers and plants, which are "non essential"


Image

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
20 April 2020 14:04:51


 


Well, on that basis the rate of hospital admissions isn't 'predictive' either: It's indicative of the impact of the measures that were put in place.


The trend of deaths really is just as 'indicative' as hospital admissions but it's got a much bigger lag, that's all.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Yes, they are both lagging indicators, but the rate of hospital admissions is a better indicator in my view, than the current death rate.


People admitted to hospital tend to have been infected within the past week (two at the outside), whereas mortality often follows two to three weeks following admission.


 

New world order coming.
doctormog
20 April 2020 14:07:01


This is not a parody, a real American


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


It is actually a parody but somewhat worryingly it is hard to tell given the mentality of some of Trump’s followers. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 April 2020 14:12:46


 


The fatality rate is not predictive, it is a reflection of measures in force three to four weeks ago - it is only significant emotionally, but has zero statistical relevance as to whether government measures are working at the moment. The only statistic we should concentrate on is the rate of new hospital admissions on account of COVID-19 - that is the one which shows whether the current lockdown is operating as intended.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

I agree, but I did talk about the trend over the forthcoming week and that of course includes new confirmed cases and hospital admissions.


The data we've had over the past few weeks is reflective of to put it crudely "old news"...we all understand the lag phraseology, so if the new "snapshots" of deaths we're getting are indicative of what happened say 3 weeks ago and there is a decline in confirmed cases and hospital admissions, as I said, there must be some cautious optimism if that trend continues this week.     

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
xioni2
20 April 2020 14:13:26


 


Despite the lack of lockdown legislation in place, the population has been cautious and compliant...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective


"More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office.


And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.


Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.


“We don’t have a radically different view,” Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. “The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.”


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Yes, the Swedish approach is much more nuanced than given credit by our media:



  • mass events were banned on March 11

  • Food serving at the bar and queueing are not allowed

  • The distance between tables has been increased

  • Serving of cold food is not allowed

  • All serving plates have to be hot

SJV
20 April 2020 14:19:02


 


It is actually a parody but somewhat worryingly it is hard to tell given the mentality of some of Trump’s followers. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes even with it being a parody the alarming thing is there are people out there who think like this! 

Maunder Minimum
20 April 2020 14:19:10


 


Yes, the Swedish approach is much more nuanced than given credit by our media:



  • mass events were banned on March 11

  • Food serving at the bar and queueing are not allowed

  • The distance between tables has been increased

  • Serving of cold food is not allowed

  • All serving plates have to be hot


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


So, are you saying that you think the UK should have adopted the Swedish approach?

New world order coming.
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