Not for the first time, the quote in my signature rings very true.

Agreed. My only point is that some people seem to take the view that protection of lives is the only factor that should be taken into consideration and that the economy doesn't matter at all. However, we don't take that approach in any other walk of life.

However, whichever angle you approach it from, it's very difficult to decide how and when the current measures ought to be relaxed. Even if you are happy to sacrifice lives, the problem is that if the relaxation of the measures leads to a resurgence in the virus, that will damage the economy anyway. It's a very fine line to walk.

The true comparison would be the RTA deaths against the potential deaths - the early estimate was 260k - if we'd not taken the draconian measures we have (which makes the point I think you're making even more pertinent)

But there is a balance to he struck, and a gradual easing of restrictions to facilitate economic activity is necessary. 

Places like garden centres, diy shops and then other currently 'non-essential' retailers. We're now accustomed to limited number of shoppers allowed in at a time and queuing outside, along with social distancing measures, so these would be accepted by people.

Exactly!

But, the economy isn't wrecked, it's suspended, mothballed, paused, hibernating. Nothing has been bombed, wrecked, torpedoed. When this has gone (if it goes...), the economy is ready to go - and with vast amounts of cheap oil and cheap solar (thanks to clear skies) about who knows....

Old data (from the IT dated April 4th) but might serve a rough snapshot of the Ireland/UK demograph. 

"The median age of those who have died from the coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, is 81. Some 13 of the 17 patients who died had underlying health conditions".

Takes:

'Median' age of likely death is quite high, while median contagion age is in the late middle-age range. (48)

High percentage of those who died had underlying conditions 

Men are almost 3 times as likely to succumb. 

Indeed.

Without stringent control this virus might well wipe out several hundred thousand people in the UK every year, for several years. Anyone putting the economy before that (and i don't think anyone here actually is) are not, imo, worthy or the name human. Further, without stringent control the virus would let rip and all those working and being protected now (from those keeping the net going, to those driving vans, to the NHS to those keeping water and drains running, the armed serviced) would get picked off by it and many of them refuse to work out of fear of crippling illness.

Let Covid rip in a densely population nation and a whole nation would be in fear - economies can't work in such conditions. Our hope is stringent control - it IS working.

Yes, agreed. 

Though I think what is deemed 'essential' or not is very subjective. For example. a lot of people, a high % of which are elderly, enjoy gardening. Good for the mind and spirit and gets people out in the fresh air, which is also good for the body. 

Yes, I'm sure he'll post something to that effect....

I assume you think anyone coming to the country should be required to quarantine for 14 days. I know Italy have done that but I’m unsure if any other countries in Europe have - Czech Republic ? Slovakia ?

Agree Lionel. 'Complex' doesn't even begin to describe whatever decisions are to be taken in the near (or not so near) future. 

Daily slides

Transport

Cases in pillar one are at the lowest rise since March 31st

Hospital admissions have fallen in London for the 7th day in a row whilst the North West has levelled off after data issues

Peter, businesses have fixed costs and peak periods for trading. Many won't be able to survive as it is, and the longer restrictions stay in place, the higher that number of business failures grows.

Yes, the likes of garden centres would seem to be one of the easier calls to make when the measures are relaxed. However, they're probably not that significant economically. Our building sites are all shut down currently. That's a large chunk of economic activity mothballed. We have a housing shortage here so it would be great to be able to get our builders back to work. However, social distancing isn't possible at all times on sites. So should we accept that there will be a halt to all construction for possibly 12 to 18 months? If so, not only will that cause huge economic damage, it means that our housing shortage will get even worse. That means that there will be a big price to be paid and not just on the economic front. 

Updated graph for the UK. Daily confirmed deaths are the lowest for 2-weeks.

Italy

• 2,256 new cases


• 454 new deaths

I think we will see a jump tomorrow 

All EU members (except Ireland) plus all associated EEA countries (essentially the Schengen area) have closed their external borders to non citizens on non essential travel. The ban is likely to last into May.

In addition to this, more than 10 EU countries have fully closed their own borders to non-nationals. Not even other EU citizens can now travel to the Czech republic or Slovakia, only their own nationals can.

So why are commercial flights landing at the likes of Frankfurt, Paris, Zurich etc ?? Are they all citizens of those countries? 

Could be, but they could also just be flying mail around - as I've posted before, BA planes for example carry Royail Mail letters and packages, regardless of whether there are passengers on board.

Yes, I don't have the full list of countries that only allow their own nationals to enter their countries, but it was Greece, Cyprus, Denmark, Spain, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic countries etc.

The remaining Schengen countries only allow EU/EEA nationals to enter their territory, or non nationals on essential travel (the EU has published the criteria).

Ireland is exempt due to the CTA with us (because we haven't closed our borders).

JFF model cautiously back on track.

After a dicey few days it seems like things are starting to get back to the curve which is good news. Model predicted 2593 pillar1 cases compared to the 3023 actual. Still a bit out, but going in the right direction.

I hope we can get back to the curve soon, if we don't then it would suggest that R0 is not decreasing as fast as it was initially which would be a shame.

Yes, I know that, I know a business in such a position.

Question is, if restrictions go, if case build again then how willing will people be to buy things? Imo, less so than they are now because fear would increase and people think simply about survival.

Now you're a good compassionate man so i don't think you would take a trumpian view of this? It really is about least awful 'solutions' isn't it? Lockdown, with pauses and hopefully progress in treatments,  is still that 'solution' imo.