Some governments, not all. Many have reacted more swiftly and aggressively.

As for the WHO, it might have made mistakes but they still had the highest international alert possible on 30 January. Even their advice not to close borders back in Jan is perhaps misunderstood. Their rationale was:

• countries needed to screen all visitors from infected areas


• The closure of borders makes this more difficult as people travel via alternative routes, which are not always traceable


• In their experience in the past the closure of borders had made the transport of medical supplies more difficult especially in poor countries

Like for like on the last 3 Thursdays

• 514 - April 23rd


• 870 - April 16th


• 891 - April 9th

Have been a bit concerned at what i have seen on social media when people have put up graphs showing the number of deaths by the day they actually happened. Although it is indicated that the numbers in the final few days will rise, some people seem very encouraged by these graphs as if it will be down to near 0 deaths in a few days and that the coronavirus is quickly dying.

We should have days with negative numbers (people resurrected).

Two possibilities:

1) People have evolved to have a finely tuned sense of danger so they subconsciously know the corona virus is fading away and no longer presents a major threat

2) They are bloody stupid 

Britain votes with its feet: Hundreds queue outside Five Guys and B&Q, builders line up at construction sites and Tubes and roads get busier by the day

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248637/Coronavirus-UK-Builders-line-construction-sites-Britain-gets-work.html

As it's the Daily Mail I'd translate "hundreds" as 10.

Breakdown of the 514 deaths announced in England today by date

• 111 on April 22nd


• 216 on April 21st


• 75 on April 20th


• 110 between April 1st and April 19th


• 2 in March with one on March 25th

I think if we are not careful, we could easily end up having the worst health outcome and the worst economic outcome in Europe. We don't even know where the virus is at the moment, 1.5 month in the crisis we are still 'ramping up'  testing and PPE supply. 

That’s positive, we’re safely away from weekend anomalies and are comfortably down on yesterday. First concrete sign of substantial progress imo. 
Just hope the numpties tiring of the lockdown don’t stuff it up!

I get the feeling lockdown is breaking here to some extent. Far more traffic on the roads. Not quite sure where everyone is going as everything is shut! Social distancing still being well observed.

Can't remember if I said this before but I've wondered if lockdown discipline is like being on a diet psychologically, regardless of how people rationalize it. Weeks 1-2: good. Weeks 3-4: "Sod it, I've lost 5 pounds, one chocolate bar a day won't hurt". Weeks 5-6: "Large deep pan pepperoni with Coke please!"

I wonder if time degrading lockdown compliance is taken into account in any of the models.

The trouble with this BS is  it will encourage the dimwits and dullards  because "everyone is  ignoring social distancing"

To be fair, he'd get lambasted if he was making bullish predictions when the scientific evidence supports extreme caution.

They already probably have. Deaths are three weeks behind infections.

If the lockdown caused R0 to go to 0.98 then there was absolutely no room for error, wouldn't be suprised if its back above 1 now.

It worked in Resus monkeys, which are closest to us apparently, so they are 99% sure it will work

I understand where Hickster, Maunder, Q, etc are coming from. Tribal party loyalty is hard to get past and I try to imagine how I would be reacting if this was a Labour govt.

But then I think back to Iraq, and I did turn on Blair, whom I was a loyal supporter of up until then

I must admit I'm not seeing that round here and I'm in an area of Essex where "the man down the pub said" culture is rife. I went for a long walk today along woodland paths and it was fine except for the odd jogger, although they did thank me when I dived into the hedges out of their way. Driving back through the estate I saw the odd couple standing chatting a couple of metres apart but there was very little traffic.

What are you seeing?

This was the challenge facing all governments - knowing when to begin a lockdown as they knew that in time the general public will begin to ignore it. It’s possible that our government got the timing right as if this is the week that the lockdown breaks down then it has potentially coincided with a reduction in number of deaths / hospital admissions. 

Maybe they could jab the idiots that run Chinese the illegal  meat trade - and the Muppets that buy the stuff from them ?   It's the least they could do  in reparation for all this

Sweden admit errors

Sweden has seen its confirmed cases of Covid-19 jump from 16,004 to 16,755. The rise was much larger than in recent days, during which Sweden’s Public Health Agency had been cautiously celebrating a flattening of cases.

The agency's deputy state epidemiologist Anders Wallensten said the majority of the new cases were in Stockholm. Increased testing of healthcare workers could be a factor, he said, but scientists were looking into other potential reasons.

The agency also adjusted an earlier estimation that one-third of Stockholm residents will have been infected by the virus by 1 May, which was featured in a report released by the agency earlier this week and withdrawn after officials admitted errors in calculations.

“I don’t think this should be looked upon as something that is representative of Swedish statistics in general,” Wallensten told the BBC from the news conference via video link. “It was a mistake, I think many people understand that we are working hard these days... unfortunately this was not spotted before it went out.”

He said it was “too early to say” how much of an impact asymptomatic infection rates and the subsequent potential for immunity would have on the potential to lift social-distancing recommendations in Sweden in the near future, in comparison to places which have endured stricter measures.

Unlike other countries Sweden has not implemented strict social distancing measures.

Perhaps a reflection of the demographics - high BMI and other conditions like diabetes.

Also, no health insurance for the poorest mean they only seek help when things get really bad

Can I borrow her? But I have to warn you I have wandering hands like Mr Tickle

Yes - Boris contributed -1 the Monday before last !

It was only based on data from people who had died or left the hospital. They chose to ignore those who were still being treated.

Not sure that follows! If there is a length of time between the lockdown coming into operation and the number of deaths starting to fall along with the lockdown starting to break down then if we had started the lockdown earlier we would have seen the number of deaths start to drop earlier and the lockdown starting to breakdown earlier too, but have had fewer deaths.