That's an interesting point. I'd assumed they'd got it significantly lower before easing the lockdown which in Wuhan was much stricter than the UK's. As I've repeatedly said I'm a "pleb" on these matters. Nonetheless, I am very fearful of where things are heading in the UK. I also have grave reservations about other parts of Europe. Just finished reading today's Times and it seems the tourist industry thinks it will be gradually reopening through the rest of the year. Unless infection rates have been much higher than most scientists think (a view held by some, especially a section of the nationalist Brexitier community it would seem) or the virus for whatever reason just fades away, we are in very serious trouble. To compound the problems we are reading various reports about the long term damage SARS-CoV-2 can cause and the possibility it is responsible for very serious illness in a small number of children. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well actually I think that is VERY bad and illustrates the point I am making perfectly. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Don’t forget that anything below R0 of 1 will cause the outbreak to fade away; it’s just a matter of the timescale.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It won’t have risen due to the relaxing of instructions, thats far too quick.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Yes, but.  

The rush to get the Nightingales built reflected the genuine and valid concern that this first wave might be worse than it has been.

We’re still left with the lack of staff to run these huge new hospitals, not to mention the PPE.

I’m increasingly troubled by the stance of some of our politicians: either there’s a worrying level of ignorance of epidemiology or a more worrying willingness to trade tens of thousands of lives to ‘get back to normal’.  Apparently we do get the leaders we deserve. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It would be really, really useful at this point, just to know exactly how much transmission can take place from asymptomatic carriers.  

It could be that people without symptoms pass this virus on in a very limited way.

Is there any reliable data out there? All the focus is quite rightly on a vaccine, but I still feel there are significant, game changing, unanswered questions about this virus. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I've not looked at the data but if you are correct that is an EVEN worse scenario. Your panglossian veneer is fast becoming a distant memory! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well actually I think that is VERY bad and illustrates the point I am making perfectly. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Ive checked the data for the past 7 days in Germany and the % increase in new cases has been (latest first) .74%. .66%, 1.1%, 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.6%, 1.6%

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Just to repeat the point made by Mark (I think) earlier:

Last week, Germany was optimistic it was on the path out of lockdown. And a handful of measures were lifted, with small shops allowed to reopen and some students returning to class.

But on Tuesday, officials warned the infection rate was increasing - and was now at 1 again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52450742

PS: If we're anywhere near "herd immunity" as suggested by some why is R rising so quickly in Germany?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I've not looked at the data but if you are correct that is an EVEN worse scenario. Your panglossian veneer is fast becoming a distant memory! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

We are in limbo until there’s a vaccine. If there’s no vaccine this will just run. If catching it really doesn’t confer immunity we’re in serious trouble.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The problem is that we are now where we are. In an ideal world, China would have been isolated from the outset and the virus contained there until whatever.

Instead, we have a global pandemic. Island nations like New Zealand and Taiwan can isolate themselves and that is effective, but they then have to maintain that isolation in various forms until there is a proven and widely available vaccine (however long that takes).

Europe and the USA have community spread - we cannot maintain lockdowns indefinitely - there therefore needs to be a different strategy and the only one I can think of is a strategy which keeps the viral load at a level which allows our health systems to cope - that is it. I think it was described pretty well by Merkel - an R number of 0.9 is fine, 1.0 is difficult, 1.3 is catastrophic. All attention is now focused on keeping R at 1 and below - that means people will still become infected and some will still be hospitalised and some will still die from it - that is the nature of it I am afraid.

The big problem then comes in the autumn/winter when the flu season starts - if we have a bad influenza outbreak to contend with at the same time as dealing with COVID-19, then it is double trouble.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

 Agree with this. However, Germany is reporting that R has already increased to 1. There is no reason to think other European countries will do better. In fact the evidence suggests they could well do significantly worse.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I personally don't think half as many people have had this as is being made out by some. Which is bad news as it means the % of hospitalisation is very high. This certainly tallies with anecdotal evidence around here...the few people I know who have had it have all wound up in hospital to varying effect.

The other alternative explanation is you can catch it more than once.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

I personally don't think half as many people have had this as is being made out by some. Which is bad news as it means the % of hospitalisation is very high. This certainly tallies with anecdotal evidence around here...the few people I know who have had it have all wound up in hospital to varying effect.

The other alternative explanation is you can catch it more than once.

Originally Posted by: CreweCold 

Just to repeat the point made by Mark (I think) earlier:

Last week, Germany was optimistic it was on the path out of lockdown. And a handful of measures were lifted, with small shops allowed to reopen and some students returning to class.

But on Tuesday, officials warned the infection rate was increasing - and was now at 1 again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52450742

PS: If we're anywhere near "herd immunity" as suggested by some why is R rising so quickly in Germany?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The problem is that we are now where we are. In an ideal world, China would have been isolated from the outset and the virus contained there until whatever.

Instead, we have a global pandemic. Island nations like New Zealand and Taiwan can isolate themselves and that is effective, but they then have to maintain that isolation in various forms until there is a proven and widely available vaccine (however long that takes).

Europe and the USA have community spread - we cannot maintain lockdowns indefinitely - there therefore needs to be a different strategy and the only one I can think of is a strategy which keeps the viral load at a level which allows our health systems to cope - that is it. I think it was described pretty well by Merkel - an R number of 0.9 is fine, 1.0 is difficult, 1.3 is catastrophic. All attention is now focused on keeping R at 1 and below - that means people will still become infected and some will still be hospitalised and some will still die from it - that is the nature of it I am afraid.

The big problem then comes in the autumn/winter when the flu season starts - if we have a bad influenza outbreak to contend with at the same time as dealing with COVID-19, then it is double trouble.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Drunken covidiots are slammed for holding weekend party as lockdown slips with traffic up and more shops reopening

Dozens of revellers posed for a picture during a group drinking session in breach of coronavirus lockdown rules at the weekend - while shoppers queued outside reopened DIY stores and motorists returned to the streets of London on Monday.

Around 30 people gathered for an outdoor party last weekend in Coatbridge, Lanarkshire.

One of the group joked online that they were 'away for a social distance swally' and that she would 'probs be in the cells for 4'.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8263201/Covidiots-pose-picture-drinking-party-coronavirus-lockdown-Coatbridge-Lanarkshire.html

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The evidence indicates the virus was spreading even before China knew about it. There is no 'ideal world' option.

China's wilful refusal to recognise the problem, followed by their customary obfuscation, greatly amplified the scale of the problem.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

My thoughts too. I've consistently said this. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What I'd like to see done, but clearly won't be, is to line up anyone behaving like this and give them SARS-Cov2 and then tell them they get no medical support. Do it publicly so everyone knows.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think this is the nub of the issue, Brian. Governments are elected on issues that mean something to the electorate. They then attempt to deliver, for better or worse. We get the governments we deserve.

I cannot recall any election where matters of Public Health were at the core of the manifestos. Can you? Perhaps at the peak of the AIDS crisis.

Yet pandemics are deeply ingrained in our history and culture. We can all cite the Black Death, The Plague, Malaria, Cholera, Polio, the childhood diseases, and pandemic Influenza. We know about "vectors" like the rat flea and mosquito, and about hygiene, immunisation and hospital acquired infections. So we are not clueless. We can even explain the origins of the nursery rhymes "Ring a ring o Roses" and "Coughs and Sneezes...".

So why are we so willing to launch into criticism of government failures when we have been so nonchalant about making public health and preparedness a political issue. That was our failing because we knew all this, just as we know what could well happen if we relax our present controls on Covid-19. We are in the middle of an outbreak and we are bored and becoming careless? Who's to blame for that? Not just politicians or the media.

After we have enjoyed the bloodsport of criticising our politicians, perhaps we should put Public Health, surveillance and preparedness on the agenda for the next election.

Roger

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons