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Phil G
28 April 2020 15:00:15


 


 


Most were cut under Cameron/Osborne.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Believe May as Home Secretary was responsible for the police cuts Martin. Here's a former met police chief to put the boot in.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/05/theresa-may-disastrous-home-secretary-prime-minister-policing/


 

Northern Sky
28 April 2020 15:16:23


Another interesting bit from Iceland's mass screening (they are not just testing for the virus, they also sequence it):


"Men are much more likely to become infected than women. If women get infected, they do not get as sick as men.


Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill. What is interesting is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.


There is an amazing diversity in the way in which we react to the virus."


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Yes xioni, that's the bit I quoted on the previous page when I provided the link...


 


 


Phil G
28 April 2020 15:16:39


 


I see they have set a target of no more than 3000 new cases daily by 11/05 or else restrictions won’t be lifted.


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


France's new cases figures have been jumping around all over the place. 3.7k yesterday, 612 and 1,660 before that so it'll be interesting if a decision is made at the time based on one day 11/5 or an average if the volatility persists.


Our rate has been running between 4-5k for a while now. I wonder what figure would meet our decision makers criteria over here?


 

noodle doodle
28 April 2020 15:27:28


Iceland has also employed the international best practice:


"We have taken a middle of the road approach, rather than lockdown. Elementary schools, childcare and stores are still open, for example, but we have banned gatherings of more than 20 people and closed theatres and concert halls.


We have done it in a relaxed way but with three exceptions: we have screened more than anyone else to find the cases looming in society that have not been caught by the healthcare system; we have aggressively tracked people they have come into contact with; and we have equally aggressively put them in quarantine.


This has worked."


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


A sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere triumphs again! Huzzah!


 


 

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
28 April 2020 15:33:31

Meanwhile in Germany the latest report from RKI says their estimate of the reproduction number has ticked back down from yesterday's 1.0 to 0.9 today (95% confidence interval: 0.7-1.0).


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
noodle doodle
28 April 2020 15:35:25


 


The UK figures are skewed by Scotland. England has a higher population density than the Netherlands for example.


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


 


The figures all skewed by empty bits


 


 


There was an interesting piece about lived density i.e. what was the population density that most people experience. It was higher for spain than the netherlands for example - most of spain being fairly empty in between cities.


 


https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345


 


PS I don't know if the netherlands is less/more than england. One of the difficult things to pin down about the netherlands is its exact area with all the polder building.

fairweather
28 April 2020 15:35:52

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-widespread-uk-very-start-pandemic-says-genetics-183900585.html


Some interesting stuff there.


 

One of the world's leading human genetics experts has told Sky News that coronavirus was widespread in the UK at the very start of the pandemic and a lack of vigilance allowed the virus to take hold.


Dr Kari Stefansson is overseeing a massive project in Iceland to genetically sequence every positive case of COVID-19 in the country to find out how it mutates and spreads.


He spoke to Sky News at the headquarters of his company deCODE Genetics in Reykjavik, which houses a massive database of more than half the Icelandic population's genetic material.


Founded almost a quarter of a century ago, the samples are used to look into the genetic components of diseases. Now he's looking into COVID-19.


He says sequencing tells them where the cases come from.


"So the virus now has basically a barcode for every part of the world," he said.


"There is a collection of mutation that is relatively characteristic for Austria, another for Italy as well as Great Britain and for the west coast of the United States etc."


Prof Stefansson said that in the beginning, almost all of the cases came into Iceland from the Alps, from people who had been skiing in Austria and Italy.


The authorities responded by trying to contain the spread of infection from those high risk countries.


He added: "But as they were doing this, the virus was actually sneaking into the country with people from all kinds of other countries.


"And the most notable there is Great Britain. So it looks like the virus had a fairly wide spread in Great Britain very, very early in this epidemic."


Prof Stefansson said the UK - and the USA - weren't vigilant enough from the start, pointing to Iceland's policy of mass testing.


Iceland has now tested a higher percentage of the population than any other nation. 45,000 tests have been carried out in a population of 460,000.


deCODE is working alongside the health service to take samples from as many people as possible - the sick as well as the seemingly healthy.


Dr Stefansson says that is the only way to discover the true spread of the disease in the community.


The policy has allowed Iceland to identify cases quickly and isolate carriers.


After it was suggested that it is easier for a small nation to test and bring the virus under control, he replied: "Yes, there may be fewer of us but countries like the United Kingdom and the United States have much, much more resources than we do.


"It is all just a question of using what you have. They weren't vigilant enough. They didn't react to this early enough.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
xioni2
28 April 2020 15:37:11


Yes xioni, that's the bit I quoted on the previous page when I provided the link...


Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 


My quote is better than yours.


Sorry, I missed it.

fairweather
28 April 2020 15:38:58


 


 


A sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere triumphs again! Huzzah!


 


Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


The professor pointed out that whilst it was easier for Iceland the USA and the UK have vastly more resources to deploy. He also more or less said "you taught us how to do it all, then didn't follow your own advice" !


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 15:44:57


 


The professor pointed out that whilst it was easier for Iceland the USA and the UK have vastly more resources to deploy.


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


How does that work out per head of population though in these two giants? 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
xioni2
28 April 2020 15:52:54


A sparsely populated island in the middle of nowhere triumphs again! Huzzah!


Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


And what about those landlocked countries in the middle of Europe or the even more densely populated Asian countries? It must be something in their air or perhaps their lack of bullsh1t.

Chunky Pea
28 April 2020 15:56:18

Perhaps another thing to consider regarding Iceland's 'effectiveness' is their somewhat stoical, Nordic personality type. Stereotyping I agree, but while I have never met anyone from Iceland, the few Nords I have encountered tended to be of that somewhat reserved, conformist type. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Saint Snow
28 April 2020 15:57:10


 


Agreed, they found 0.8% to be infected early in the month and 0.6% more recently. Icelanders are also typically frank and direct:


"I think it is inexcusable that the UK was not more vigilant, notably in using PCR testing.


With America, it has amazing resources and actually taught us how to do the screens we are doing now. They invented the technology but unfortunately were slow to apply it to their own people.


I think this epidemic would have looked totally different if countries like the US, UK and other European countries had been more vigilant."


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


 But, like, we shouldn't criticise the government...



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
springsunshine
28 April 2020 16:01:38


 


That is planned for when the lockdown is eased. There was little point doing it during the surge in cases and hospitalisations with lockdown in place.


The key to ending the lockdown is to get new cases way down, to start mass testing and to do the contact tracing/quarantine. There will always be a persistent level of new infections, but hopefully at a low enough level to enable most of society to start functioning once more. The problem will remain the hospitality industry - bars, restaurants, hotels, holidays - foreign holidays have to be off the menu this summer, autumn and winter at least.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Having spoke with colleagues in the hospitality sector,locally, the general consensus is this year is a write off and are all a bit concerned for our jobs even though many are on furlough.How long will govt continue with the jobs retention scheme? To carry it on for the remainder of the year will bankrupt the nation and mean huge tax rises in the near future.Not to mention thousands and thousands of businesses going bust in the sector.

xioni2
28 April 2020 16:03:30


   But, like, we shouldn't criticise the government...


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


And remember, all countries will be the same eventually and if there are many at the end who are not the same, then they are all special cases.


 

Gavin D
28 April 2020 16:06:23
3,260 spare critical beds

3,396 positive tests

15,796 in hospital up fromĀ 15,051 yesterday
Gavin D
28 April 2020 16:06:57
Non hospital deaths will be announced daily from tomorrow
xioni2
28 April 2020 16:08:15



15,796 in hospital up from 15,051 yesterday

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Really? Did they provide any background to this increase?


 

Gavin D
28 April 2020 16:09:58


 


Really? Did they provide any background to this increase?


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


 


He didn't even say what the change was from (they always do when it falls) just hoping we didn't notice no doubt.

xioni2
28 April 2020 16:12:41


  He didn't even say what the change was from (they always do when it falls) just hoping we didn't notice no doubt.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Thanks, let's hope it's just noise.

NickR
28 April 2020 16:17:02

This may be the best indicator of the real state of place in terms of deaths by covid by country. I think those trying to excuse away things by pointing up difference between countries or data queries are guilty of apologism.


 


No photo description available.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gavin D
28 April 2020 16:18:18

Daily slides


Transport



New cases



People in hospital



Critical care beds



Deaths with a 7-day rolling average


Justin W
28 April 2020 16:20:57


This may be the best indicator of the real state of place in terms of deaths by covid by country. I think those trying to excuse away things by pointing up difference between countries or data queries are guilty of apologism.


 


No photo description available.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Shocking and shaming.


But let's wait for the stream of apologist bullsh1t before condemning HMG for the catastrophic insouciance which has condemned thousands of people to unnecessary deaths.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
xioni2
28 April 2020 16:22:17


This may be the best indicator of the real state of place in terms of deaths by covid by country. I think those trying to excuse away things by pointing up difference between countries or data queries are guilty of apologism.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Is it possible that Germany has seen no excess mortality or (more likely IMO) that this is incomplete data? 


If this graph is broadly accurate, it's absolutely shocking for England and even more so given that we had a 2-week advantage/warning from Italy.


 

Gavin D
28 April 2020 16:24:25

The governments 5 tests text has seen a slight change in the text on number 5


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