Oh cmon so a statistically significant result was found in an arbitarily chosen subgroup.

Like that's anything to get excited about. Subgroup analysis always returns interesting results by chance, enough subgroups and you are bound to eventually find an interesting one. The main point is that this was an RCT that came back negitive overall. The methodology was reasonably robust.

It may be that I am proven wrong and another larger, more robust, study overturns this one but I doubt it. Do not expect anything to come out of remdesivir.

 

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You are being premature Q. The trials will come in due course especially if the initial data are encouraging. It is not always ethical to carry out double blind randomised controlled trials in times of a pandemic. Yes they provide better data but perhaps when you are trying to save people’s lives they are not necessarily the best approach in the first instance.

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What chance do you give the Oxford vaccine? 

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I was referring to the study reported in the Lancet. I think you’ve misunderstood what it says.

Try reading it again.

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Regional data for new cases today in England

The 7 English regions 

• London +111 (0.5%) 24,090


• Midlands +219 (1.1%) 19,123


• North West +283 (1.6%) 18,106


• North East and Yorkshire +216 (1.3%) 16,889


• South East +236 (1.4%) 16,559


• East of England +128 (1.3%) 10,035


• South West +70 (1.2%) 6,056

The 10 local areas with the highest cases

1. Kent +29 (0.9%) 3,272


2. Birmingham +49 (1.8%) 2,782


3. Lancashire +61 (2.3%) 2,695


4. Hampshire +37 (1.4%) 2,689


5. Surrey +36 (1.4%) 2,498


6. Essex +27 (1.1%) 2,451


7. Hertfordshire +19 (0.9%) 2,202


8. Sheffield +30 (1.5%) 2,039


9. Cumbria +32 (1.8%) 1,793


10. Staffordshire +13 (0.8%) 1,650

The 10 local areas with the lowest cases

1. Rutland 20 - No change


2. Isle of Wight 104 - No change


3. North East Lincolnshire +1 (0.8%) 130


4. Hartlepool +2 (1.2%) 167


5. Torbay +1 (0.5%) 200


6. Bath and North East Somerset 203 - No change


7. Bracknell Forest +4 (2.0%) 205


8. North Somerset +7 (3.2%) 218


9. Peterborough +7 (3.1%) 223


10. Calderdale 231 - No change

Are the majority of those test on people with symptoms of one sort or another? If so it shows there are still lots of other things going round - I think most people who get a sore throat, cough, fever whatever would immediately assume they have Covid 19. 

Edit to say I know I would.

15,356 in hospital down from 15,796 yesterday and down 16% on this time last week

Another study on Vitamin D - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/apt.15777

"Evidence that vitamin D might protect against infection is modest but it is important to note that the hypothesis is not that vitamin D would protect against SARS‐CoV‐2 infection but that it could be very important in preventing the cytokine storm and subsequent acute respiratory distress syndrome that is commonly the cause of mortality"

German study shows children give off almost the same viral load as adults.

n.b don’t make the same mistake as I did.  The dots represent number of samples - not the viral load.

The Y axis represents viral load. 

 

Viral loads by PCR as seen in our laboratories. No significant difference between children and adults. Age categories: Kindergarten (KG), Grade school (GS), Highschool (HS), etc. with age ranges and (counts). https://t.co/xunzyHEi47 pic.twitter.com/je73hsKrZb

— Christian Drosten (@c_drosten) April 29, 2020

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I wonder how much encouragement we can really take from the confirmed rate falling. It could be a lot of people are taking tests even though they don’t need one - or people being encouraged to take them as a way of meeting Hancock’s target. 

We can’t seem to move off the circa 4k number. 

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Absolutely weeks away from the number of tests that they want to be at 

 

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So, if 100k people were being tested each day and there were still only 4k positives would you still not see that as a positive indicator?

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But we have since learned that HCQ actually increases the risk ratio of patients who are given it despite promising early results that I fell for just as others  did. The other side of this coin is that if you rush head first you are more likely to end up with a nasty suprise than a miracle.

I appreciate the sentiment of what you say but I question how valuable non RCTs are especially if we don't have them in volume or can't easily detect publication bias.

 

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I don't really know enough about it to give an opinion. Sounds more plausible than these two antivirals that people have been talking about though.

 

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Two questions:

1. Aren't these figures based on test results and therefore reflect tests carried out several days ago?


2. Isn't there also a lag between the ramping up of testing facilities and people booking the test?

I'm pleasantly surprised that they've ramped up to 30k+ given where we were just a week ago.  Given the reports on testing slots being booked out so fast I'm expecting the number to continue to climb quickly.

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Of course you are correct and they are valid points but we are only a third of the way - I and many others thought how optimistic they were with the number they wanted to get to 

 

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At 100k tests, of course. Perhaps you need to read my post again? I’m arguing that the people being tested are not necessarily those that have symptoms and need the tests. 

Most people think we need to get below 3,000 or more positives per day to relax lockdown irrespective of the percentage of positives. 

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Think the latest capacity figure I heard was 75k a few days ago. So probably not 100k by tommorow but 80k I would have thought.

 

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Headline on the latest edition of the Times

"Death rates are comparable to Ebola in hospital cases"

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Doesn't it also depend where those tested are based ?

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Thanks. I did understand your point but thought you were putting too negative an interpretation on it.

🙂

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Yes I heard that's the capacity - doesn't really mean a thing though , having the capacity is one thing , utilising is another 

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As gandalf pointed out there will be a lag from that.

I mean, tests take a minimun of three days so even if you tested 70k people today with 100k tests you would not expect to see that reflected in the figures until around Saturday.

The hope is the mismatch between capacity and implementation is a combination of startup related logistics (that hopefullly will get resolved) and this lag that I've mentioned.

 

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The coronavirus spike in Germany shows why the UK must not lift lockdown measures too early, Dominic Raab insisted tonight.

Amid signs the loosening has fuelled the outbreak, Mrs Merkel has warned that hospitals will be overwhelmed by June if the transmission rate goes even slightly higher. 

That will mix it up a bit 

This is why we have to be so careful , patience really is needed 

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