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Quantum
01 May 2020 19:24:01


 


The government deserves credit for massively increasing testing in the last month. However, Hancock would have been better off a) not setting an arbitrary target b) not manipulating the stats to get a headline 100k+ figure today. I would blame the low level of political discourse in this country. Politicians, public and press all share the responsibility for the sorry state of affairs.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I don't think he did. From what I can gather this has been the methodology since the start (on the 27th) of when home testing kits were first sent out. I've put a few ideas in my post why they may do it this way, but I don't think this was last minute revisionism. Its still confusing though.


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
The Beast from the East
01 May 2020 19:26:28


 


instead of celebrating that humungous achievement, all we get is carping.


Sod the bloody BBC and Channel 4 News - point is that we now have a foundation to get out of lockdown - mass testing and contact tracing to follow - let's at least celebrate that!


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


To follow indeed.


Yes, lets celebrate having the worst death rate per capita in the world


All you right wingers who cant shake off your tribalism, will your attitude change if someone you love actually dies, or will you still slavishly defend the govt?


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
01 May 2020 19:27:50


Decided to test out a mask this afternoon because I had to go to Aylesbury. One problem I encountered is that the face unlock on my phone stopped working. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


My wife has made us masks this evening, using some old silk material and elastic. Very comfortable to wear and does not deprive any staff who need them of proper surgical masks. When it comes to ordinary people, homemade is best.


Will try them out when we go to the supermarket tomorrow for our weekly shop.


New world order coming.
Chunky Pea
01 May 2020 19:28:03


 


And stop showing the comparison chart with other countries, because we are now top of the league of death!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


In terms of absolute death numbers, you are still behind Italy (but still the 2nd highest in Europe), and in terms of Covid-19 related mortality rate per 100,000, you are in 4th place in Europe (40.3/100,000 vs 66.5/100,00 for Belgium, which still is topping the European table in this regard) 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
01 May 2020 19:31:04


 


In terms of absolute death numbers, you are still behind Italy (but still the 2nd highest in Europe), and in terms of Covid-19 related mortality rate per 100,000, you are in 4th place in Europe (40.3/100,000 vs 66.5/100,00 for Belgium, which still is topping the European table in this regard) 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Going by the FT estimate of deaths, we are top


But that is unofficial of course


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 May 2020 19:33:10


 


I mean the govt could equally have targetted 80k people per day and the result would have been the same. I suppose its not a round looking number. The logic, I guess, in reporting tests/day or testing capacity is that its impossible to know, presumably, how many people need to be tested twice so that figure would be variable and hence something that would be more difficult to fix a target to.


So I don't blame the govt at all for the tests/people thing. I think that is a total non issue.


 


What I do want to know about is this lag in the confirmed vs the positives. That's important because it affects the data in a very meaningful way. This is what we should all be talking about.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

it’s possibly the way we’ve been looking at it!  Gavin gives us the daily figures which I assume is from this:


— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) May 1, 2020


That shows: tests carried out, positive results and deaths, reported on that day.  We know there’s a lag in death reporting, so we know that figure doesn’t accurately report figures for that date.  We didn’t think about the lag between tests and results!  


There is nothing on there that says the number of positive results relate to the number of tests carried out.  That’s why I’ve been questioning Gavin’s percentage figures!


 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Chunky Pea
01 May 2020 19:35:04


 


Going by the FT estimate of deaths, we are top


But that is unofficial of course


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Worth keeping a close eye on official data, comrade:


 https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Phil G
01 May 2020 19:38:02
This tracing. When someone is found to have the virus, what is the process from there and the mechanisms used. Obviously they are asked who they have seen recently and others asked who live with them, but are they asked where have they been. Is this info captured by a questionnaire, someone calling and asking questions/interrogating, send the boys round!
Just interested 'what the hunt' is like once a test proves positive.
Ulric
01 May 2020 19:38:12
von der Leyen right on the money here. Global cooperation is what is required now.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20200501-talking-europe-watch-our-interview-with-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-commission-president 

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Brian Gaze
01 May 2020 19:39:42


 


You need to add an ‘alternative appearance’ (assuming you use an iPhone which I would say is a near cert 😛)


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Actually I don't I have a Google Pixel 4. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
xioni2
01 May 2020 19:41:13


 Worth keeping a close eye on official data, comrade:


 https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


These are the numbers of deaths with a positive CV19 test confirmed. The UK has not been testing much for the last 2 months, so there are many deaths which are not attributed to CV19, plus a lot of inaccurate death certificates at care homes. This is why the total number of excess deaths will eventually be the best proxy of covid mortality, the same process is followed every year for deaths caused by flu.


At the moment our excess mortality is very high, but numbers for other countries might not be complete yet.


 

Quantum
01 May 2020 19:42:15


 


These are the numbers of deaths with a positive CV19 test confirmed. The UK has not been testing much for the last 2 months, so there are many deaths which are not attributed to CV19, plus a lot of inaccurate death certificates at care homes. This is why the total number of excess deaths will eventually be the best proxy of covid mortality, the same process is followed every year for deaths caused by flu.


At the moment our excess mortality is very high, but numbers for other countries might not be complete yet.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


I've been wondering this. If you die of heart disease and test positive for CV19 do you count in the death statistics?


 


2024/2025 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 3 days with snow/sleet falling
18/11 (-6), 19/11 (-6), 23/11 (-2)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp): Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
xioni2
01 May 2020 19:44:06


 I've been wondering this. If you die of heart disease and test positive for CV19 do you count in the death statistics?


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I don't know, but my guess is yes.

Brian Gaze
01 May 2020 19:47:36

Headline in the Fail:


What a Fiddle 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 May 2020 19:47:48


 


I've been wondering this. If you die of heart disease and test positive for CV19 do you count in the death statistics?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think yes.  They call heart disease a known underlying problem. This is one of the anomalies between the reporting of different countries and it’s the reason we’re being told that the only true picture will come from stats showing deaths above average. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
01 May 2020 19:49:03


Headline in the Fail:


What a Fiddle 


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

They’ve got to sell papers somehow Brian!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Chunky Pea
01 May 2020 19:51:36


 


These are the numbers of deaths with a positive CV19 test confirmed. The UK has not been testing much for the last 2 months, so there are many deaths which are not attributed to CV19, plus a lot of inaccurate death certificates at care homes. This is why the total number of excess deaths will eventually be the best proxy of covid mortality, the same process is followed every year for deaths caused by flu.


At the moment our excess mortality is very high, but numbers for other countries might not be complete yet.


 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


Perhaps, but this is also very presumptive. As mentioned the other day, excess deaths seems to be higher in England than the rest of the UK, and I would guess that if England data was broken down, that this excess would be confined to certain regions within the region rather than as a whole. 


..which I acknowledge is more presumption on my part. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
The Beast from the East
01 May 2020 19:51:44

This tracing. When someone is found to have the virus, what is the process from there and the mechanisms used. Obviously they are asked who they have seen recently and others asked who live with them, but are they asked where have they been. Is this info captured by a questionnaire, someone calling and asking questions/interrogating, send the boys round!
Just interested 'what the hunt' is like once a test proves positive.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


As far as I know, nothing happens. You are just told to self isolate and people you live with too. Not enforced of course and there is no infrastructure yet in place to do any more than that


An absolute joke and for those who missed Newsnight last night, worth watching the testimony of the pregnant Filipino nurse who still doesn't have PPE and is also worried about her Visa


What a shithole country this is


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Chunky Pea
01 May 2020 19:55:15


 


I don't know, but my guess is yes.


Originally Posted by: xioni2 


If you are correct, wouldn't this be totally unethical? And not only that, but a deliberate attempt to skew the stats? 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Lionel Hutz
01 May 2020 20:04:22


 


O'Learly clearly knows his job very well but to be fair it has been obvious to a number of us on this forum for weeks that summer 2020 sun season is dead. As I mentioned we cancelled our summer holiday weeks ago. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, I have now more or less given up on my beach holiday to Friuli in July. Even in the unlikely event of Italian authorities welcoming foreign tourists, I expect that we would be forced to self isolate for a fortnight on our return. I will pencil it in for 2021 instead and will appreciate it all the more. 


So what are the chances of us being allowed to take the car over to England in August? The last few years, we have visited a part of England where totally coincidentally Millwall have had an away match 😉. I put my chances of going to England and getting to a 'Wall match in August at 50/50 at this stage. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



xioni2
01 May 2020 20:07:44


Perhaps, but this is also very presumptive. As mentioned the other day, excess deaths seems to be higher in England than the rest of the UK, and I would guess that if England data was broken down, that this excess would be confined to certain regions within the region rather than as a whole. 


..which I acknowledge is more presumption on my part. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



The data on excess deaths we have so far for England & Wales show huge regional variations with the biggest relative increases in areas with high official covid infections and deaths. This clearly points towards most of the excess mortality caused by CV19. If it was heart attacks etc, then there would be less regional variation (on the increases of the excess mortality).


Again the same method is used to quantify deaths caused by flu every year.

SJV
01 May 2020 20:08:23

The latest NHS England/ONS deaths by actual days chart for Friday - a continuing decline in the NHS figures and one of the lowest daily reported figures on a weekday. (open in new tab for full size)


Gavin D
01 May 2020 20:19:25

​


 Boris Johnson faces court battle as businessman Simon Dolan argues lockdown is ILLEGAL




Quote

 


BORIS JOHNSON is facing a legal challenge over the Government's decision to impose the UK-wide coronavirus lockdown. A wealthy businessman has launched the legal bid, claiming the coronavirus lockdown will kill more people than it saves. Simon Dolan, whose Jota Aviation company has been delivering personal protective equipment (PPE) to the NHS, is seeking a judicial review over the Government's emergency measures that he claims restrict people's personal liberty.


His legal challenge mirrors the action taken by Gina Miller over Brexit, on the grounds that the lockdown was both legally defective and disproportionate in law. Accusing the Government of "paralysing the country" and causing "long term damage",  he is calling on Boris Johnson to relax the current lockdown restrictions and introduce three key changes to allow the economy to recover. This includes permitting gatherings of up to 100 people, reopening schools and reviewing the lockdown restrictions every two weeks. Mr Dolan's lawyers have sent a 'Letter Before Action' to Health Secretary Matt Hancock, giving him until Thursday May 7 to respond.


Lawyers seek to challenge the Government on three main points.


Firstly, whether the lockdown is unlawful because the Government implemented regulations under the Public Health Act 1984 instead of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 or the Coronavirus Act 2020.


Secondly over the legality of the continuation of lockdown regulation, and whether the tests are too narrow - failing to take account of the economic and social impacts of lockdown.


The final challenge will evaluate if the restrictions contravene the European Convention of Human Rights, which cover the right to liberty, family life, education and property.


As part of the application, Mr Dolan is also requesting the minutes of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) meetings this year.


 





https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1276697/Boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown-illegal-court-judicial-review-simon-dolan?fbclid=IwAR3neXufC8Ajv2cAWA2-pUKy9xVh9u0W_jRprZ28TnOnRD8Sh9gp9rwxWiA


​

Polar Low
01 May 2020 20:19:53

I would also say yes quite a few old people are in a staged heart failure process with covid being the final nail


 



 


I've been wondering this. If you die of heart disease and test positive for CV19 do you count in the death statistics?


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

fairweather
01 May 2020 20:20:24


 



 The only time it is worth listening to the news or current affairs is when they get an actual scientist on (which for the BBC is never during their main bulletins for some reason).


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


They did on BBC News 24 earlier this week. A brilliant immunologist and a molecular biologist. As you intimated, much better.


S.Essex, 42m ASL

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