Remove ads from site

llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 May 2020 05:49:14

Onwards......


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Brian Gaze
06 May 2020 05:58:41

Ferguson all over the media this morning for all the wrong reasons. However, sadly one can't help suspecting that he's enjoying the limelight. Doubtlessly a very clever man but one who even before this debacle had been constantly on the airwaves. Once corona is over (if we get to that stage) a new career in reality TV is certainly available to him.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 May 2020 06:16:49

In spite of the fact that the number of infections continue to rise in the States, Trump is looking to disband the virus task force. The timing seems inappropriate ?


 


"US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be disbanded within weeks.


"We are bringing our country back," Mr Trump said during a visit to a mask-manufacturing factory in Arizona. 


New confirmed infections per day in the US currently top 20,000, and daily deaths exceed 1,000."...........


 


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52553829


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 06:37:18


In spite of the fact that the number of infections continue to rise in the States, Trump is looking to disband the virus task force. The timing seems inappropriate ?


 


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Inappropriate thy name is Trump. News footage of his at a factory with signs saying everyone to wear a mask - and he was the only one not doing so. Perhaps he was afraid of not being recognised?


EDIT - maybe I should have put this in the Trump thread. But he does have this habit of pushing in where he's not wanted


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
06 May 2020 06:45:33

Someone sent me the following graph. It's interesting but and I'd appreciate a statistician's take on it. Thanks. Roger


COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison


https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/


 


Roger


 


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 06:59:57


Someone sent me the following graph. It's interesting but and I'd appreciate a statistician's take on it. Thanks. Roger


COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison


https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/


 


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


An excellent graphic. As the site itself points out, the situation will change as the outbreak started on different dates in different countries and will likewise die down on different dates. But, perhaps beyond their expertise, the methods of obtaining the number of cases varies between countries, too. But it makes a change from the media fascination with raw totals.


(and yesterday while helping a great-nephew with his maths homework over the phone, it struck me that GCSE syllabuses could do with a lot more on statistics and rather less on quadratic equations which were his problem)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ulric
06 May 2020 07:01:08


Someone sent me the following graph. It's interesting but and I'd appreciate a statistician's take on it. Thanks. Roger


COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison


https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/


 


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I put the same countries on my favourite graph of population adjusted deaths.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=BEL+FRA+ESP+GBR+USA+IRL+PRT+CHE+SGP+ITA


 


We're top of the shop on deaths but supposedly doing OK on cases?


 


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Brian Gaze
06 May 2020 07:07:53

Some terrific (not) journalism in The Times this morning. They have an article title "Fat could be helping coronavirus to infiltrate cells" (see https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fat-could-be-helping-coronavirus-to-infiltrate-cells-q2t02cd7c). It then goes on to use a diagram which show the lowest risk of dying in ICU is if you have a BMI of 30 to 40. Those with a BMI under 25% have a 47.1% chance of croaking compared to 46.9% for those in the 30 to 40 range.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
06 May 2020 07:13:56


We're top of the shop on deaths but supposedly doing OK on cases?


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


As I read them, Roger's graph is a cumulative total whereas yours is the current daily total. This would fit with the outbreak in the UK starting later than, say, Italy or Belgium. 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
speckledjim
06 May 2020 07:17:41


Someone sent me the following graph. It's interesting but and I'd appreciate a statistician's take on it. Thanks. Roger


COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison


https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/


 


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


if you compare that with the number carried out per million you’ll see why Spain and Ireland are top


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
speckledjim
06 May 2020 07:19:05


 


I put the same countries on my favourite graph of population adjusted deaths.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=BEL+FRA+ESP+GBR+USA+IRL+PRT+CHE+SGP+ITA


 


We're top of the shop on deaths but supposedly doing OK on cases?


 


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


If you look at deaths per million we are 4th,  behind Belgium, Spain and Italy


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ulric
06 May 2020 07:23:19


As I read them, Roger's graph is a cumulative total whereas yours is the current daily total. This would fit with the outbreak in the UK starting later than, say, Italy or Belgium. 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Yes. What's important is the slope of the line post-peak. Our figures aren't reducing as fast as the others.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Brian Gaze
06 May 2020 07:24:47

Also a "fabulous" piece in the Times about the NHS app-ocalypse ttiled "Coronavirus tracing can stop second peak, insists Patrick Vallance" (see https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-tracing-can-stop-second-peak-insists-patrick-vallance-2s2jkhpcf).


It illustrates a decentralised app (Google / Apple) style uploading ids to a centralised database. Firstly, the Google / Apple api uplaods encryption keys (souceL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_/_Apple_contact_tracing_project) for the last 14 days, not ids.


The article goes on to say: The app can be “woken up” from tens of metres away by Bluetooth from Google-made Android phones and by iPhones that are using the tracing app in the foreground. The Bluetooth used in most devices is class 2 and has a range of about 10m. In addition Android phones will only be able to operate in this way if the app is running and in the foreground (same true for iPhones) or the app is running a foreground service.


It also says, "The government could resort to asking iPhone users to actively turn the app on before leaving the house." That won't get round the problems because the app will be pushed quickly into the background as the user almost certainly does other things. It also stops working if the iPhone is locked.


 


So it's a poor article which shows a lack of understanding. However, it does manage to describe some of the pitfalls of the UK's approach to the contact tracing app. Some of the problems are intrinsic to the chosen architecture and are not bugs which can be fixed. There will of course be some of them too.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Roger Parsons
06 May 2020 07:29:09
Thanks for all comments on the graph - helpful and much appreciated.
Roger
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Maunder Minimum
06 May 2020 07:38:06

Some are finally starting to ask the correct questions:


https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/05/05/the-uks-catalogue-of-catastrophes-and-what-to-do-next/


 


New world order coming.
Ulric
06 May 2020 07:40:21


So it's a poor article which shows a lack of understanding. However, it does manage to describe some of the pitfalls of the UK's approach to the contact tracing app. Some of the problems are intrinsic to the chosen architecture and are not bugs which can be fixed. There will of course be some of them too.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That's what happens when you let script kiddies loose on taxpayers money.


It is quite obvious, even from skimming the subject, that the app is nonsense and won't work.


I know that farcebook has some technology which detects when two users are connected to the same wi-fi hotspot - presumably using Google's wi-fi mapping data. You can see that it works because if you stand in a pub and look at facebook's "suggested friends", you can often identify some of the people seated in the bar from the suggested FB profiles.


Wouldn't that have been better?


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
lanky
06 May 2020 07:40:52


Someone sent me the following graph. It's interesting but and I'd appreciate a statistician's take on it. Thanks. Roger


COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison


https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/


 


Roger


 


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


It is affected by the testing regime in each country as well though


Countries that have obtained positive tests from asymptomatic victims will show up as a higher (and more accurate) incidence of cases per million population


The UK is doing a "MORI" type testing survey to get a better handle on this number but the results are not yet out


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Ulric
06 May 2020 07:44:26


Some are finally starting to ask the correct questions:


https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/05/05/the-uks-catalogue-of-catastrophes-and-what-to-do-next/


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


So, government boot-lickers say the government's not to blame? All down to communists and foreigners.


Predictable stuff.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Ulric
06 May 2020 07:46:19


 


It is affected by the testing regime in each country as well though


Countries that have obtained positive tests from asymptomatic victims will show up as a higher (and more accurate) incidence of cases per million population


The UK is doing a "MORI" type testing survey to get a better handle on this number but the results are not yet out


 


Originally Posted by: lanky 


That's the point. The figures aren't comparable.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
springsunshine
06 May 2020 07:50:13


Also a "fabulous" piece in the Times about the NHS app-ocalypse ttiled "Coronavirus tracing can stop second peak, insists Patrick Vallance" (see https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-tracing-can-stop-second-peak-insists-patrick-vallance-2s2jkhpcf).


It illustrates a decentralised app (Google / Apple) style uploading ids to a centralised database. Firstly, the Google / Apple api uplaods encryption keys (souceL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_/_Apple_contact_tracing_project) for the last 14 days, not ids.


The article goes on to say: The app can be “woken up” from tens of metres away by Bluetooth from Google-made Android phones and by iPhones that are using the tracing app in the foreground. The Bluetooth used in most devices is class 2 and has a range of about 10m. In addition Android phones will only be able to operate in this way if the app is running and in the foreground (same true for iPhones) or the app is running a foreground service.


It also says, "The government could resort to asking iPhone users to actively turn the app on before leaving the house." That won't get round the problems because the app will be pushed quickly into the background as the user almost certainly does other things. It also stops working if the iPhone is locked.


 


So it's a poor article which shows a lack of understanding. However, it does manage to describe some of the pitfalls of the UK's approach to the contact tracing app. Some of the problems are intrinsic to the chosen architecture and are not bugs which can be fixed. There will of course be some of them too.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The obvious question re all this is what about all those who do not have an iPhone or android??

Ulric
06 May 2020 07:52:51


The obvious question re all this is what about all those who do not have an iPhone or android??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


We will just have to accept that mortality correlates with social deprivation.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Brian Gaze
06 May 2020 07:53:14


 


The obvious question re all this is what about all those who do not have an iPhone or android??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


It wouldn't be such a big issue if the vast majority of people who have an iPhone / Android phone installed the app and it worked at all times. You would then get a situation where those who don't have a phone would potentially benefit from something similar to "herd immunity". 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
06 May 2020 07:58:50


 


So, government boot-lickers say the government's not to blame? All down to communists and foreigners.


Predictable stuff.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Predictable response from you - the article states nothing of the sort, it makes a critique of the structures we have created in this country.


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
06 May 2020 08:02:26


Some are finally starting to ask the correct questions:


https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/05/05/the-uks-catalogue-of-catastrophes-and-what-to-do-next/


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Some good points made. However, many people won't be able to read past two words, one begins with E and the other with B. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Sevendust
06 May 2020 08:05:24


 


It wouldn't be such a big issue if the vast majority of people who have an iPhone / Android phone installed the app and it worked at all times. You would then get a situation where those who don't have a phone would potentially benefit from something similar to "herd immunity". 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


....or die

Remove ads from site

Ads