Agree with every word there Justin. It’s been devastating. Yet HMG seem to act like NK spinning everything to look better than it actually is. Many other countries see it, but here you call it out and are chastised for it.

We need a different government then. The current lot have buggered up almost everything they've touched.

Agreed. 

We should only lift lockdown once full contact tracing is in place and you can only do that effectively once cases are below a 1000. We are not even close to that.

I've just em'd my MP Gagan Mohindra to say (as a non expert) exactly this.

As I Driving Instructor I have been giving lessons to key workers who need to drive to get to their place of work. Today I can say that the roads are now about 60-70% of normal. Many of the industrial estates are busy and commercial traffic seems to be back to normal. Only some offices, local government and the high street shops seem to be still closed.

There will come a time for an audit of what went on - the unforgiveable aspects were not to introduce port screening and border controls at an early stage, to still allow flights to and from virus hotspots like northern Italy and to allow events like the Champions League match in Liverpool to go ahead with a crowd of supporters.

However, it does appear that the actions of the Government were in line with the advice they were getting - Vallance admitted as much in The Times today:

"...

Yesterday Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, admitted that free travel into the UK before the lockdown in late March probably contributed to the outbreak, saying that genetic studies showed “we got imports from all over the place”.

..."

You are no doubt thinking of the Chilcot report - publication of which was dragged out for so long that most of the public had forgotten there had even been a war.

That has been confirmed several times by the German authorities, not only they record their deaths in the same way we do, but they have been including deaths at care homes from the start.

Most countries I know also record deaths in the same way we do (i.e. a positive test for CV19). Some countries (e.g. Belgium) even include the likely CV19 deaths (i.e. deaths without a positive test, but with similar symptoms). NY also reports daily confirmed deaths (positive test) and suspected deaths.

You forgot to mention the pubs and restaurants - they are still completely closed (unlike in Sweden for example).

Is this your first pitch and throwing our scientists under the bus?

There are reports that beer gardens will be allowed to open very soon. 

I don't think there will be any significant relaxation of the lockdown next week and not before the end of May.

To be honest with you, I'm not really seeing an immediate threat to the long term economy. That's because a huge proportion  of the world economy has suffered the same fate. It's a sort of even keel of shite. Even unemployment would be short term as any bust businesses popped back up again and need staffing. 

This isn't a deep seated banking crash with severe disruption to cash supply. It's mostly superficial.

I suspect big business is at the mercy of shareholders who simply MUST have their (overinflated) dues at any cost. There are a lot of fat cats who have realised this situation could have threatened their gravy train.

I had to go to the post office today to return my Sky Q box and router - I switched a month ago and good God it's great to have cut ties with Sky; it would've been north of £80 per month and I didn't have close to the full works either. Anyway, I walked there and it involved going along the main road for a bit and I was quite shocked to note how many cars there were. I would broadly concur with about 60-70% capacity. Normally my daily walks are through minor roads to the local park so you can get a false picture of how quiet it is.

I love that choice of phrase, Crewe 

Don't forget the #RussiaReport

I refer you once more to the letter I received from a Home Office Official on the 31st March which was in response to an email I sent to my MP on 7th February on the topic of port screening and border controls - here it is once more, with sections I have bolded for emphasis:

"

Thank you for your letter 24 February 2020 to the Home Secretary on behalf of XXX, about his concerns regarding operations at the UK border, particularly in relation to screening at the border during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Your letter has been passed to me to reply and your office has kindly agreed to accept a response by email. 

The actions we are taking in response to the unprecedented threat from COVID-19 are in line with advice provided by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and Public Health England (PHE).  At present, we do not intend to introduce port screening measures such as temperature checks, as the scientific advice suggests that they simply do not work.   However, flights arriving from Category 1 countries have been subject to checks on board with the crew identifying passengers of concern.  Any passengers identified will have been subject to further health screening on arrival in the UK. 

During the containment phase, an enhanced monitoring process was implemented by PHE, to monitor direct flights and identify any ill passengers from affected countries.  On 12 March 2020, we moved from the containment phase to the delay phase.  This has been initiated as there is now community transmission of the virus in the UK, i.e. transmission not directly related to travel; so this has made interventions in ports of less relative importance. 

With the shift to the delay phase and commensurate policy changes, the PHE port health approach has changed to a “warn and inform focus”, which consists of the following actions:

• Announcement on all flights: All aircraft arriving into the UK will provide an announcement prior to disembarkation.  A notice to the airline community (NOTAM) from the Civil Aviation Authority will enforce this.


• Warn and Inform: All ports will display posters prominently and make leaflets easily accessible for travellers, replacing these as updated materials become available.


• Enhanced public health support at ports: Public Health England’s Heathrow based Health Control Unit (HCU) will provide enhanced support with consistent 24/7 public health advice to all English airports and they will arrange to meet with each airport individually to better understand and give advice on the local arrangements i.e. we are focusing on the provision of information by providing airlines and airport operators with posters and leaflets with the latest advice, symptoms and what to do if passengers get them. These materials are available at all international airports, ports and international train stations. 

Our advice is under continual and ongoing scientific evaluation and such advice is being monitored regularly.  If the scientific advice says that the safety of our country requires a further change in policy then we will, of course, take the appropriate actions. 

"

Poster and leaflets! For air crew! ROFL!

My prediction remains that restrictions will be lifted in mid-June although there may be relaxation before then.

Yet a short-term reaction of this economic terror does not make for good policy. Everything would not be fine economically if lockdowns were lifted. The implicit assumption is that we would then return to where the economy was before the coronavirus. But that is impossible. The real question is what would happen to today’s economy in the absence of today’s lockdowns. The answer is that, if the virus were to run rampant yet again, a large part of face-to-face economic activity would again cease to exist.  True, if lockdowns ended and support for people without a job was also withdrawn, many might be compelled back to work. That might even raise economic output. But it would reinforce the inequality already created by the disease between those who can survive at home and those who cannot. Not only would lifting official lockdowns be unlikely to bring the economy roaring back to life if the disease were still prevalent. Worse, a reopening followed by a wave of rising infections and a lockdown, or even a cycle of reopenings and lockdowns, would devastate the economy and sadly many more lives lost— quite apart from the credibility of policymakers.

The what?  Never mind me.....

A full account of this forgotten inquiry is here:

http://thememoryhole2.org/blog/chilcot-report

You will be able to spend a good few hours on this, more, make yourself comfortable.

Roger

I agree, although there will probably be some relaxations I think they are likely to be relatively low key for the moment. The high number of new cases that a few people have picked up on is a worry. It's a pity we don't have any kind of breakdown of where they are coming from - are they are predominantly from hospitals/care homes or are a significant number from the wider community? If it's the latter any major relaxing of lockdown could be very dangerous.

Agreed, they will probably say businesses such as garden centres can open but there will be nothing major until June

I agree

There will be only a very few crumbs of comfort on a rich mans table on Sunday

You are probably right, Ulric, though how they intend to police it is a question. Also, how they will backtrack if it proves a disaster.

Much will depend on the tracking and tracing proposals and above all getting a vaccine in time for the next "episode".

We shall still need to be very careful about contact, social distancing and hygiene.

Roger

I don't watch the daily press conferences, but aren't any journos asking about this? A breakdown of the new infections is very important and I assume they have this info. It's possible that many of them are in hospitals and care homes.

The Times has an interesting story from Italy - it appears that many firms are reluctant to get fully rolling, even though they have been granted permission to restart production:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/italian-workers-swap-coronavirus-lockdown-for-lockout-9sz2snhg5

"Italy’s efforts to breathe life into its crippled economy have been dealt a blow with the discovery that less than half the workers allowed to return to work on Monday actually got there.

Of the 4.4 million people permitted to resume their jobs this week as the country’s coronavirus contagion slows, fewer than two million were taken back by employers, Rocco Palombella, the head of Italian union UILM, said. “People didn’t go back because companies cannot start full production when the market has collapsed,” he said.

...

On Monday, as new cases slowed, a first significant relaxation of the lockdown was allowed. Of the 4.4 million people allowed back to work, about 60 per cent work in manufacturing, 15 per cent in construction and the rest in related commercial activity. “The problem is that only 30 per cent of factories reopened with a full contingent of staff,” Mr Palombella said. “Fiat Chrysler reopened its Mirafiori plant but took back only 1,000 of 5,000 staff. At the ILVA steel works in Taranto [in southern Italy], 3,000 of 8,200 staff are back. That’s why there was no crush on commuter trains and buses on Monday.”

..."

- so the evidence from Italy is that even when the Government gives the green light, business as usual (as per pre-lockdown) is not possible.