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Ulric
07 May 2020 18:54:11


Also Ulric back when you were laughing at the idea that this was anything other than the flu


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Cobblers. That is not a position I've ever taken.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 18:54:17

Shocking behaviour from Brexit trolls trying to prevent any criticism of the Govt. This is organised at a high level, perhaps even Tory central office itself


This is what Cummings and co have done to our democracy


 


 




"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Ulric
07 May 2020 18:56:00

We're leading the world as usual.


 




To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 May 2020 18:57:22


The Imperial model the govt has been basing its policy on looks to be seriously problematic:


https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/


Have a read of this.


Imperial should be ashamed they have not been honest about this.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Setting aside that it is a highly dubious motive that the author claims for wishing to remain anonymous, the domain name of this website lockdownsceptics.org tells me all I need to know about the partisanship of this analysis.


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:01:45


We're leading the world as usual.


 




Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Johnson was in ICU when the RAF flight to Turkey was organised, so I don't see how he could be held responsible for that.


Gavin Esler is also someone who suffers from BrexitDerangementSyndrome and stood as a candidate for ChangeUK at the election - did him a power of good that!


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:08:19


Shocking behaviour from Brexit trolls trying to prevent any criticism of the Govt. This is organised at a high level, perhaps even Tory central office itself


This is what Cummings and co have done to our democracy


 


 




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And Lewis Goodall is? He is a former Labour activist and not an impartial observer.


New world order coming.
chelseagirl
07 May 2020 19:09:41


We're leading the world as usual.


 




Originally Posted by: Ulric 

 Another “world leader in .............” for Johnson to add to his list then  


 


The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
Justin W
07 May 2020 19:24:56


 


And Lewis Goodall is? He is a former Labour activist and not an impartial observer.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Well done. That is a libellous claim which I will point out to Lewis. He will probably sue Brian but why should you care?


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
KevBrads1
07 May 2020 19:28:33
Focus is on UK's death toll but to me Belgium looks worse in terms of its population.

8415 deaths seems a high figure for its population of about 11.46 million.



MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:29:49


 


Well done. That is a libellous claim which I will point out to Lewis. He will probably sue Brian but why should you care?


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


All his actions, comments and presentations indicate that Lewis Goodall is not an impartial observer, so I don't know on what basis he could sue for libel, particularly as the case would be impossible to prove (from his point of view). As for him being a Labour activist in the past, that is a point of fact.


How can it possibly be libellous to claim that anyone is not impartial?


I can equally say that Alistair Campbell is not impartial, that Andrew Pierce is not impartial and that Kevin MacGuire is not impartial - they would not deny it.


Perhaps you should take a look at this:


http://isthebbcbiased.blogspot.com/2019/11/introducing-lewis-goodall.html



New world order coming.
Chunky Pea
07 May 2020 19:32:08

Wording is important when confined to limited space: 



Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:33:12


Wording is important when confined to limited space: 



Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Thanks Chunky - nice to see a light hearted comment.


New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 19:39:14


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
pfw
  • pfw
  • Advanced Member
07 May 2020 19:39:39


The Imperial model the govt has been basing its policy on looks to be seriously problematic:


https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/


Have a read of this.


Imperial should be ashamed they have not been honest about this.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


The article is clearly a hatchet job with an agenda so needs to be treated with caution. However that doesn't mean it can't have some valid points.


https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim  . Tests are a bugbear of mine - there do now appear to be some python regression tests which compare Excel files, not quite sure what it's doing though.


https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/blob/master/src/SetupModel.cpp#L510  - this would not pass code review at any company I've worked for.



There are some interesting constants, (aka "assumptions") - for example it appears to model airports and spread via hotels in some way which might be reassuring to MM (or not)



#define MAX_AIRPORTS 5000
#define NNA 10
#define MAX_DIST_AIRPORT_TO_HOTEL 200000.0
#define MIN_HOTELS_PER_AIRPORT 20
#define HOTELS_PER_1000PASSENGER 10


Without spending ages going through the code it's difficult to judge if the article makes justified criticisms. Non-deterministic outputs aren't necessarily as crazy as they seem, particularly with floating point. It's also very difficult to multi thread code that wasn't already designed for it, so it's unsurprising this has been problematic. And so on.


I was tempted to try and build/run it but the memory and CPU requirements look very high and would cause my home PC to melt I suspect.


--
Paul.
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 19:45:04


 


All his actions, comments and presentations indicate that Lewis Goodall is not an impartial observer, so I don't know on what basis he could sue for libel, particularly as the case would be impossible to prove (from his point of view). As for him being a Labour activist in the past, that is a point of fact.


How can it possibly be libellous to claim that anyone is not impartial?


I can equally say that Alistair Campbell is not impartial, that Andrew Pierce is not impartial and that Kevin MacGuire is not impartial - they would not deny it.


Perhaps you should take a look at this:


 



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Look at some rightwing lunatic blog? No thanks!


You can still be an impartial journalist and have held political views in the past! 


No one complains about Sarah Smith. She is brilliant and never accused of bias despite her family background. Lewis is the same. 


Show me a report where he was biased?


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:47:12


 


Look at some rightwing lunatic blog? No thanks!


You can still be an impartial journalist and have held political views in the past! 


No one complains about Sarah Smith. She is brilliant and never accused of bias despite her family background. Lewis is the same. 


Show me a report where he was biased?


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You should have a look at the link I posted - someone did some background research on his Twitter history.


 


New world order coming.
Justin W
07 May 2020 19:49:15


 


All his actions, comments and presentations indicate that Lewis Goodall is not an impartial observer, so I don't know on what basis he could sue for libel, particularly as the case would be impossible to prove (from his point of view). As for him being a Labour activist in the past, that is a point of fact.


How can it possibly be libellous to claim that anyone is not impartial?


I can equally say that Alistair Campbell is not impartial, that Andrew Pierce is not impartial and that Kevin MacGuire is not impartial - they would not deny it.


Perhaps you should take a look at this:


http://isthebbcbiased.blogspot.com/2019/11/introducing-lewis-goodall.html



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


He is a journalist. Describing him as impartial is like describing him as unprofessional. It is defamatory. Like describing a copper as bent.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Quantum
07 May 2020 19:49:53


 


Setting aside that it is a highly dubious motive that the author claims for wishing to remain anonymous, the domain name of this website lockdownsceptics.org tells me all I need to know about the partisanship of this analysis.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Who cares about the partisanship. I also link to Guardian articles even though I can't stand the Guardian. Plus, as you know, I'm a huge advocate of extending the lockdown; its really rather irrelevant what the political persuasion is of the author.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 May 2020 19:53:06

https://web.archive.org/web/20150424224442/https://www.theguardian.com/profile/lewis-goodall


"Lewis Goodall is a history and politics student at St. John's College, Oxford, and a Labour Party activist and blogger"


Is he also going to sue the Guardian?


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
07 May 2020 19:54:24


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
07 May 2020 19:54:56


 


He is a journalist. Describing him as impartial is like describing him as unprofessional. It is defamatory. Like describing a copper as bent.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Well I am not the only one:


https://order-order.com/2018/08/13/sky-views-by-former-labour-activist/


https://order-order.com/people/lewis-goodall/


That he is a journalist is besides the point - there are plenty of journalists who are openly partial and proud of it, whether of the left or the right.


 


New world order coming.
Quantum
07 May 2020 20:00:00


 


The article is clearly a hatchet job with an agenda so needs to be treated with caution. However that doesn't mean it can't have some valid points.


https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim  . Tests are a bugbear of mine - there do now appear to be some python regression tests which compare Excel files, not quite sure what it's doing though.


https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/blob/master/src/SetupModel.cpp#L510  - this would not pass code review at any company I've worked for.



There are some interesting constants, (aka "assumptions") - for example it appears to model airports and spread via hotels in some way which might be reassuring to MM (or not)



#define MAX_AIRPORTS 5000
#define NNA 10
#define MAX_DIST_AIRPORT_TO_HOTEL 200000.0
#define MIN_HOTELS_PER_AIRPORT 20
#define HOTELS_PER_1000PASSENGER 10


Without spending ages going through the code it's difficult to judge if the article makes justified criticisms. Non-deterministic outputs aren't necessarily as crazy as they seem, particularly with floating point. It's also very difficult to multi thread code that wasn't already designed for it, so it's unsurprising this has been problematic. And so on.


I was tempted to try and build/run it but the memory and CPU requirements look very high and would cause my home PC to melt I suspect.


Originally Posted by: pfw 


 


Indeed, I happen to know something about this stuff too. Although I don't have much experience with C or C++ I have programmed extensively in Python and Fortran and the comments being made in the article came across as credible.


And I checked some of the claims and they all seemed to verify.


As I say I don't care about the political motive of the guy who wrote the article. Everyone has a motive, but it does seem to be good quality analysis in my opinion. If there are any specific problems with the article I'd be interested to know. People shouldn't sneer just because it comes from a guy they might not agree with.


 


Sodding irony of people having a go at me for linking to a anti-lockdown guy after chastising me for being too pro lockdown for months on end. And this article doesn't change my view on the lockdown. I still think its a good idea, I also think the Imperial model is looking increasingly suspect.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gavin D
07 May 2020 20:09:44

Sweden



  • 705 new cases 

  • 99 new deaths

Gooner
07 May 2020 20:14:24




Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


KevBrads1
07 May 2020 20:31:02


 


He is a journalist. Describing him as impartial is like describing him as unprofessional. It is defamatory. Like describing a copper as bent.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Justin


Do you realise what you said in that post?


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

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