Sycophancy levels off the scale.

You literally changed your mind after the government had already implemented the lockdown.

If what you say is true, then had you been running things the outcome would have been far worse.

So doesn't really back up your claim.

As I say you can get an estimate of the Italian undercount by comparing to excess deaths. The undercount is far worse than the UK.

No doubt!, but we could still have draught lager

"Sycophancy" - obsequious behaviour towards someone important in order to gain advantage.

So it does not apply, since it is impossible to be obsequious towards people you don't actually know.

What you are actually complaining about is some trying to defend the Government from attacks from those ideologically opposed to it. That is not sycophancy, it is an attempt to provide some balance.

Not looked at the stats but eyeballing this suggests excess deaths in England are the highest. 

(Scroll down for country scores. England hits 43.55 followed by Spain at 34.59.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Did you actually read my post.

In summary, it seems we question question question even the bleeding obvious. The stay at home, protect the nhs, save lives. How many questions did that attract and for how long. It went on for weeks. Simple instructions but within there there was a lot of detail to sort out.

This is not the corporate world, this is Joe Public where 10% would never get it, they don't get it now.

The z score might not be the best way to measure this, but still this map doesn't look pretty, with England the worst affected nation of Europe. Wasting our 2-week advantage/hindsight from Italy makes this even worse.

some very valid points generally very well written imo

2.  The PM did not say when you should return to work!

3.  The PM didn’t say anything about meeting other people!

If the Deputy PM said anything about these three points, then I’m sure it would be to add some clarity to those like yourself who claim to have found the PM’s speech confusing!  Personally though Justin, I don’t think you’re stupid, just being deliberately awkward!  

Sure, but what I meant is using excess deaths as a metric to underestimating undercount by comparing to official figures.

Raw excess deaths still fail as a metric for not accounting for population or population density. Although I suppose Euromomo does account for the former but still not the later.

Posting that image is unrepresentative - if you follow it during the period of reporting, you can see countries swapping position as the time elapses.

We won't know the true picture for a couple of months in any case, once the final stats on excess deaths can be calibrated retrospectively.

This is not a contest in any case, it is supposed to be a sober reflection of what actually occurred on the ground.

totally agree, WI...of course what is the great unknown is whether this episode might start to signal the end of populist governments in the coming years....the jury is still very much out this...put it this way, if Trump wins in November  (which is perfectly possible), then pretty much all hope of restoring sane, modest, boring but relatively effective Govts anytime soon is nothing but a forlorn hope imho.

I agree with this, it's just a snapshot and yes it will take time before we get a fuller picture as our data collecting seems to be much faster than other countries.

How much I missed the tube 

Commuters can be seen piling onto tube trains a day after Boris Johnson said those who are unable to work from home should now be "actively encouraged" to go to work from Wednesday.

More on easing the #COVID19 lockdown here: https://t.co/moOxdDFEK7 pic.twitter.com/wmwlHcd4vc

— SkyNews (@SkyNews) May 11, 2020

Not a fan of the Z score tbh, why would you want to introduce interannual death variability as a reference? I mean, for example, you could make the case that continental countries are likely to have more extremes when it comes to seasonal flu compared to the UK which would artificially inflate the UK's Z score.

It is not a contest but it is perfectly valid to question HMG's record during this tragedy while it is ongoing.

No amount of obfuscation can obscure the fact that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe by any measure even though we were at least two weeks behind the other major European economies and so had the benefit of forewarning.

Not when you account for population density it doesn't.

One measure I've used is DA/P^2 and the UK does not come out worst in that. You could adapt this measure for excess mortality too. In that case it would be EA/P if E is expressed in percentage terms.

I think the worst country in Europe is Sweden, the best is Germany. The UK sits probably in the middle of the pack.

I should have added by any measurement by any credible agency. 

Why is it not credible to weight by population density?

Look at the per capita death rate within England where the policy is the same. Very strong approximately linear relationship.

The fact that this relationship holds not just between countries but within them shows how robust it is and therefore how important a factor.

My view, having had the night and morning to think about things, is that the Sunday night speech was unnecessary and poorly timed. If it requires a 50 page document to clarify and provide the detail and answers to the many questions that have arisen from the main points of the speech, then I think either the speech should have coincided with the published document, or not given at all.

Having the speech a day before a new working week and separate from the detail needed just means there is rife opportunity for anxiety and confusion. For some people that is perfectly understandable and not something to ridicule.

This is where my criticism comes from.

Has anybody else stuck with the Zoe Covid-19 app? I have and it's been running for several weeks now with daily entries. 3 million users so data should be pretty good. They have predicted cases steadily falling but at a slowing rate now. Down from about 2 million at beginning of April to 240,000 now. I would have thought this data better than most with that sample size. Based on people's symptoms but does ask if you've had a test as well.

Everyone slagging Bo-Jo off, but lets face it these are unprecedented times he's dealing with.

Could you imagine the disaster that would of unfolded if Corbyn & Abbot had been running it. It doesn't bare to think about it.